Well, I know there are people who have been soloing MC every week in retail for years and still are missing a binding.
Fortunately my guild has one Thunderfury complete already and we have two others with the binding from Baron Geddon.
So I see some people citing that 3% droprate but no data to back it upâŚ
however when we look at the drop rate on wowhead(not classic cause more data)
we see on both bindings a drop rate of 4% with over 200k logged kills each.
oh and the droprate on the classic site is 4% and 6% but those only have 37k kills logged.
Pretty sure the 4% droprate is more accurate.
I got 3% from Atlas Loot.
for a 4% drop rate over a whole year, for a single boss to not drop its binding would be 0.96^52 or 11.97% and to see 0 bindings over that same period would be 1.43%
Still low. But with thousands of guilds clearing, that means hundreds of guilds still have not seen a single binding.
assuming 3% drop rate, and clearing geddon+garr starting in week1
(binomial probability of 1 success in 45*2 trials)
probability of getting exactly 1 binding is around 18%
probability of having gotten none is around 6%
in case you actually meant odds instead of probability, itâs around 1 to 4.6
If youâre wondering for a 4% droprate assumption, then itâs closer to 10%
or 1:9 odds. Kinda unlucky, not that unlucky really. a little less unlucky than a guy jamming on you in poker with open straight draw on turn and hitting it on the river. it happens, nbd.
to all the closed form expression goofballs, itâs 2020 he can use an online binomial probability calculator. If you want 40 weeks or 80 trials just plug in 80 instead of 90
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um⌠what?
while my statistics knowledge is a bit rusty I am pretty sure those numbers are accurate.
with 40 weeks and never missing a week of molten core you would have killed Garr 40 times and Geddon 40 times, each boss has an individual chance to drop their binding at a 4% chance. so essentially that is 80 chances at a binding with a 4% chance to get it. So your odds of getting any number of bindings would be
(80 c X)(.96^(80-X)(.04^X) where X is the number of bindings you want to see dropped.
This is where youâre wrong. Theyâre not the same.
The easiest way to do this calculation is instead of figuring out the odds of them dropping, is to figure out the odds of them not dropping.
So 0.96^40 for 1 boss. And then multiply that answer by itself again because in order to not see a binding there is an âandâ function. So it would be (0.96^40)x( 0.96^40) to not see a binding.
cool you have any evidence for that?
also do you know how exponent math works?
when you multiply 2 numbers raised to exponents you can just add the exponents and get the same numberâŚ
so
.96^80 == (.96^40)*(.96^40)
go head put them into a calculator and check it out.
On seeding the instance there is a 3% chance the bindings will be pulled from the loot table. Period. You donât get more chance at seeing them as time goes on, albeit the probability becomes higher; the odds remain the same, they donât become better the more you seed.
Wat? You cannot turn any 2 bindings into a Thunderfury. It has to be a Garr binding and a Geddon binding. Theyâre unique entities. Theyâre not the same thingâŚso using X^80 wont work.
And yes,
This doesnât work because the Garr binding and the Geddon binding are not the same thing.
that is equal to 0.96^41âŚthat is simple math my dude.
Oh so sad you only seen one binding. Meanwhile my tank hasnât seen either
No on seeding the instance there are 2 bosses each with an indepentant chance of 4% at dropping a bindingâŚ
you can see both bindings in a single run.
so yes my math is correct at total numbers of bindings it does not factor in how many of each kind of binding.
the odds of getting 3 bindings I listed is the odds of (3 garr bindings + 2 garr/1geddon + 1 garr/2geddon + 3 geddon)
please get a calculator and check it out they are equalâŚ
You are overthinking this, and your math is incorrect because the two bosses donât drop the same item.
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I never said you could turn in any 2 bindings, but the question wasnt asked what are the odds to get a pair of bindings they asked what are the odds to get a binding, so I gave the odds for total number of bindings.
And here is the odds of finding pairs of bindings.
| # | exact | at least |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 35.26% | 100% |
| 1 | 41.80% | 64.74% |
| 2 | 18.35% | 22.94% |
| 3 | 4.04% | 4.59% |
| 4 | 0.52% | 0.55% |
| 5 | 0.04% | 0.03% |
I donât know why you are talking about odds, itâs fairly irrelevant because there isnât a set number of binding drops in a given reset.
Pretty sure I am not the one overthinking this
The question wasâŚ
they never mentioned specific bindings so I did the math on total bindings independent of which boss dropped which binding.
so all those numbers are completly correct and it could be that you had 8 bindings and 0 TFs possible because garr/geddon dropped all 8.
You enter a thread where someone is asking about the odds over a given time⌠then get confused when someone talks about the odds?
you might be in the wrong threadâŚ
When âpeopleâ say âodds,â they are talking about probability.