Arfus in Retail

Annnnd thats exactly what happened.

We don’t even have any clarity from blizzard if curses give increased drop chances beyond the first kill of the day, so here I am slogging away alt after alt doing all in hardmode INCASE it gives an increase for what is already looking like yet another pathetically low drop chance.

Blizzard just keep making the same frustrating mistakes over and over and over and I am honestly sick of it.

Up to around 100 kills now, no mount (have it already though) no drake and no arfus.

4 Likes

Well, finally on the 5th day after running 17 toons a day, I finally got Arfus! And my curses dropped off before kill but got him anyway. Now to try for the drake!

2 Likes

You got lucky, like crazy lucky. 170 kills so far here and nothing. It takes me all day to run all my toons through, I am so damned over it :frowning:

6 Likes

Rarity is telling me that Arfus is a 1% drop rate (although I suspect that’s just a placeholder value) so I’m not seriously expecting it to drop for me.

The secret to a placid life is keeping your expectations low.

4 Likes

Up to around 220 kills now, at the end of today (literally ALL day because thats how long it takes me to run every single eligible character i have through) it will be up to around 280 kills.

This is honestly just so upsetting, every first kill of the day with 4 curses just gets me the same 2 candies and a mask, havent even seen the drake script which is apparently a 2% drop chance… Is my account broken? :sob:

4 Likes

I see this complaint a lot.

No, it’s not you. No, it’s not personal. Your luck is actually typical. You’re just seeing the positive feedback from the very few very lucky who know to post. The real odds are much worse than the “I got it” posts might lead you to believe. If everybody that has run a dozen toons through the event every day and still not gotten a good drop would also post here, you’d see how unremarkable your status is.

1 Like

280 kills and no 2% drop even seen? that is even getting unlucky if it was a 1% drop, i’m getting into the lower percentile of chances for that to happen. Makes me feel like something is broken (I guess it is, its my luck that is broken :sob: :sob: )

EDIT: ok so i’m not a mathematician (far from it) but i’ve looked up general probability odds for someone doing 280 attempts at a 2% drop item and the chance of not seeing it by now lies at 0.35%. Which is even lower than the drop chance for both the mount and arfus, so I am starting to think something IS actually broken here…

2 Likes

People use this chained probability calculation as if it proved RNG owes them something.

In truth, it means nothing predictively. Your next attempt will have exactly the same 1% (ferexample) chance as the last 300.

2 Likes

Just got mine after 14th hard mode run of the day on Evoker.

Unforunately his moveset and stats is just a mini ragnaros, unless he comes in different breeds that is.

Mine is a P/P that mimics Lil Ragnaros and has a moveset that mimics. Frost Tomb being the Magma Trap, Slumber is the add avoidance, etc. He even got the team swipe in the first row.

Anyone got a different breed or just all P/P?

1 Like

The warcraftpets website database suggests he only comes in the one breed:

Thankfully only one breed. Since Arfus can’t be caged and you can only have one in the journal, it’d be really annoying if he came in more than one :melting_face:

And also thankfully only 1/1 on your account. Because I’m compelled to get three if the game allows me to have three, and the drop rate is objectively terrible.

As mentioned, unless there is bad luck protection, your 2% drop chance doesn’t change. It’s 2% every kill. This is also only an average, as our first kill of the day gives a bonus chance, and there is also a bonus for active curses. Other kills each day have the standard drop rate, whatever that is. Also, if your 280 counts attempts from previous years, the drop rates may not be the same.

It’s unlikely you’re broken. It’s simply a very rare drop.

PS: Still trying to get mine!

I’m just out on this kind of crap

Either give us a questline to get a pet or some type of achievement

RNG is just old and tired. It’s not fun. It;s not immersive. It’s just tedious.

3 Likes

Which is why casinos are taking out slot machines. Too much RNG, not fun, no one uses them.

Oh, no, wait. They rake in more than half of the $60 billion that the gambling industry makes.

RNG works for the only thing that matters to the gaming industry: making money. For every player that complains and quits because of RNG, there are almost certainly a thousand who just shrug and queue for the next instance or open the next chest.

You can certainly complain, and you should, but you should also be realistic that you’re trying to shout over the sound of lots of money being counted.

1 Like

I’m beyond tired of RNG, I want the dog and I want blizz to stop giving the same things in my vault or weekly chests that I have already.

3 Likes

So many attempts across 10 Characters and not 1 Arfus, and just about every attempt was on hard mode too. For a blue rank pet…this isn’t fair. After a total amount of attempts it should narrow down the % chance to be able to get it for something holiday tied.

4 Likes

P/P is the only available breed.

I’d call that a nice, versatile moveset. I don’t see how you see it as similar to Lil’ Rag.

Deadly Dreaming is Haunt. Ice Tomb is deterministic, instead of the RNG of the trap. Zoomies is a creative use of RNG buf, and Rag doesn’t have a Stampede/Flock.

I thought it was very frustrating having to run the event so many times.

After doing it like nuts for 10 years and no mount, no pet really isn’t shocking me.

Typical blizzard.

Guess we might see it on twitch/prime/tenders in the future though.

When I first got him didn’t see that his avoidance was just a renamed haunt to be honest. Makes it sound like he would summon adds but he just falls in the backline.

Moveset isn’t really compatible with his breed. Tried making him work in PvP he just dies way too quickly.

Now trying him with teams, he is more like Unborn Val’kyr but lacking the H/H breed to make him better.

Bright side though, it is useful having a critter killer undead. Downside if you screw up Slumber and it misses or blocked he instant dies like a Val’kyr haha.