This is called confirmation bias.
It’s called a bell-curve.
I got so lucky, my guild dragged me through an 8 that took like an hour at the beginning of the season and I got the heroic changeling.
I think this game isn’t very rewarding if a) you’re mostly getting your dopamine hits from loot and b) your gear is pretty good and the only upgrades are rare things.
this is why I have so many alts, but even they are getting hard to find upgrades for lately.
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And what you’re doing is called blind faith.
Do you understand ratios?
There is no reason to get 15 streaks of 4 crits in a row in a 1000 attack rotation at 40% crit, and then only get 1 streak of 4 drops in a row in 1000 runs with 40% drop chance.
This is what is happening right now. That’s the numbers you’re asking for.
Where are your numbers showing that you get the same streaks with both?
Omg I did the same grind. Trauma. Still never got it.
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So social scientist here, this is a normal brain looking for patterns in randomness and finding them even though they don’t exist, hope this helps.
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So the same applies to the other guy wanting to believing there is no bad luck protection so he ignores the lower ratio of drops in a row compared to crits in a row with same % chance just to preserve his belief that the game uses true random for drop chance, right?
It’s not blind faith when I’m basing my understanding off of what information Blizzard has stated. Which is literally 40% chance.
You are the one who is going off of blind faith by claiming that the drops are weighted based on lucky or unlucky streaks.
Again, bell curve. This doesn’t mean every individual will experience 40% chance of drops. It means statistically you have a 40% chance to get a drop per run.
You also have to remember that the bell-curve’s 50th percentile is skewed. Since 50th percentile is on 40% chance. Meaning you are more likely to have a bad-luck streak than a good-luck streak.
When a mount drop chance is 1%, it doesn’t mean it will drop 1/100 times exact. That’s how you get some people still not getting the mount after 500 attempts. It’s still a 1% chance per kill.
I didn’t read the whole thread, but bad luck protection can work in different ways. Are you saying the probability of a drop increases over time or kills or what?
And yeah you get streaks because randomness is random and the random probability of a streak is the same as the random probability of not having a streak. Have you ever been gambling?
How RNGs work is you have an algorithm that is weighted. So you generate a random number and 40% of the time over an infinite range it will hit. and within any finite range that number can be zero or 100%.
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He’s saying that the game raises or lowers your chance to get loot based on who’s in the party. Like if you got loot twice in a row with people in the group who got loot zero times in the last two keys then the game will favor the other players.
Huh, he said there was some blizzard confirmation of this? I always assumed it was just random.
He has zero confirmation or official hint that this is happening. The only information we have is that drops are 40% per run.
People hear bell curve and automatically assume and picture a standard one. This isn’t a standard bell curve since the 50th P is on top of 40% chance. Which means with a SD of 10, the 68% range will be 30%-50%.
Yeah I just looked and Blizz has confirmed that there’s no bad luck protection in m+ and also they won’t be adding it.
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Blizzard never stated that, this is just the number people easily understood from the fact that 2 items drop for 5 people, this drop chance changes at higher keys when more items can drop. It’s not stated by blizzard just like none of the drop chance for any item are stated by blizzard even when people beg them such as the legendary axe situation in DF. The only drop chance statement they made are about mounts that have their drop chance changed later on, and when they talked about bad luck protection on some stuff that are a pain to get including once again the legendary axe thing, and even then they never made a clear statment about how that worked. They also never made a statement about M+ drop chance and loot distribution being truly random, so you also have no statement to back up your claims, at all, objectively speaking.
I’m not arguing the 40% drop chance, I keep repeating that it’s 40% drop chance. That never changes. I’m saying that with true random in a 40% chance, you will get many hits in a row, like with crit chance. You should get as many drops in a row from the same sample size, but you don’t. To explain this phenomenon, my theory is there is bad luck protection preventing people from going too long without getting loot, by forcing people to get loot, it forced others to not get loot, which breaks the possibility of getting the same amount streaks as you would with the same crit chance. At the end of the day you still get 40% drop chance, but in 1000 runs you only got 4 drops in a row once, but if you attack a boss 1000 times you will get many streaks of 4 crits in a row with 40% crit chance. Same 40% chance on both, just distributed differently across the 1000 samples because one is controled and the other is not. If they were both not controle (aka true random) they would have the same ratio.
It’s literally been in patch notes when they adjusted M+ drops and raid drops.
Again, this doesn’t prove anything. This just shows confirmation bias and trying to find patterns where there is none. Until you have something official that states that there is bad luck prevention you have a theory based on anecdotes.
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I never said there’s confirmation of this, just like they never confirmed it was purely random either. I’m just explaining my findings and stated it’s a theory. Sosari is claiming facts without having any evidence or without even having tested or experimenting anything. He’s objectively just blind faith believing numbers he heard floating around the community and deeply wants to never let my theory have a possibility to be true even if similar cases of controlled rng exist out there.
OK I get the argument you’re having here lol.
The thing is, the concept of a streak is sort of cognitively tied to the frequency of the RNG roll and the fact that your m+ drops are spread out means you aren’t going to perceive a streak, but also streaks are in general rare occurrences so you just see them more often in rapid succession rng rolls like crit hits.
But also because it’s random a streak is never guaranteed. Ever been gambling lol?
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Nah you don’t really get the argument. I wrote down what happened with drop chances, he did not. People came to the conclusion that 2 items for 5 people means 40% chance to get something per run, blizzard said “uuh yeah sure” and now that became his gospel. He did not question how this 40% happens in any way shape or form, ever, as long as the result is 40% he’s happy. The 40% is real, based on my numbers. But the way it happens is different. It’s not that it FEELS or is PERCEIVED differently. It’s objectively happening differently, at least for me. None of you guys are able to show proof that it’s happening differently for you, in fact after projecting that you think I’m doing this by feel it means that this is all you got, which makes any number you present now invalid, making your point unsubstantiated. Of course all I got is my own numbers and I offer a theory based on that, it’s not solid evidence you can always discredit it or claim I’m making that up to “win interwebz debate” and nothing forces you to prove me wrong you can literally live in blissful ignorance as you’ve been doing since and I can’t do anything about that.
The real problem is more the act of saying I’m wrong without proving me wrong. His strongest argument is the equivalent of “the bible says so”.
Blizzard has said there’s no bad luck protection in m+ though. I’m not sure what the heck you’re doing, have you ever taken a probability class?
You are literally the one coming here with this tin foil hat theory about weighted drop chances without any actual proof besides anecdotes. You have the burden of proof.