The first year will be rough. I started playing WoW in 1.12, on end of September 2006, that’s a month after 1.12 hit basically. Our server was the rp server Sentinels(US), and it was created on July 12, 2006, Naxxarmas was released June 20, 2006 to put it into perspective progression wise.
Basically on our server we had a lot of people reroll just to get server first and Rank 14s (or as high as they could get.)
We also had people reroll on our server to do rp and pvp events. And these were a fun bunch of people. They had basically just given up on their main characters on other servers since BC was coming out soon anyways, and maybe too were burnt out on the grind.
The server was also listed as “New” so players like me and my guild came over from other games to play there.
The rerollers who wanted to go for server 1sts or high pvp ranks were elitist. Not saying this in some insult way. But they didn’t have time for noobs basically. They also didn’t bother to rp or engage in many server events. They were too busy grinding.
This did kind of hurt the server. And drama in those guilds killed them before they could do endgame Naxx. (Maybe the one ally guild killed one boss in Naxx. I’m pretty sure that same guild didn’t get past twin emps though.)
Then we had the fun rerollers leave to play their mains back on old servers once BC hit.
Our server was always low pop, up until Wrath. Basically the first year of BC it was a ghost town and pretty rough.
I think Classic will have similar experience on many of its servers.
The high end players (and experienced pirate server players) will just grind away in their own world. New players to Vanilla (not to WoW) will be complete noobs, with ZG raid being a high light once it comes out. Maybe AQ20 also. They’ll miss out on tier 1 progression likely. They’ll also be a fun bunch of rerollers/nostalgia players at launch and they’ll play for 2 to 3 months heavy or so, maybe if summer release then the winter months will extend their play time.
Players new to WoW will struggle to find a home in Classic, and likely try retail but hate that cause it doesn’t have minecraftian survival features and competing vs decade plus veterans in game stinks for kids.
Blizzard is also making a HUGE mistake expecting WoWhead to guide new (wow) players to love Classic. Blizzard should be the one on point, driving information, guides, videos, and host (reward) player created content to help incite fanaticism in the new to WoW and new to classic community. I like WoWhead, but a new face is needed for the new crowd, and it has to be integrated into the game and Blizzard’s mobile platform, the new generation needs it that way(and the old generation is savy enough to accommodate it).
So, I think months 7 thru 19 will be a building time for Classic. The only players to survive it will be happily grinding at their own paces. Then it will get really good for many who loved Vanilla as the communities define their space. By then everybody should be playing for fun and love of the game.