I don’t know what the drop rate of this is. I’ve seen it reported as high as 2%. Last year in ~280 attempts I got 5 Kodos and 0 Rams so it’s possible. But I tend to believe slightly less than 1% is more likely.
Still, even at 0.8% this is ridiculously unlikely.
To be clear, this is once per toon per day for the 60+ keg. Almost 300 attempts last year, the rest this year. This year is even meant to have a higher chance of something from the first run each day. I don’t know if this per account or total.
I have toons that have 3 Direbrew Remotes. But this year I’ve seen 0 mounts drop. Either one. WTF?
Here’s a thought I had: Blizzard now gives a higher chance for the first run each day to try and discourage this kind of camping. In doing so, did they reduce the overall chance? For example, if it was 1% before the change, the new chance is 5% for the first run of a day and 0.5% after that.
At a 1% drop rate, my luck here is almost 1 in 54,000 for this many attempts. It’s even less likely when you consider that there were also no Kodos (unless this has been changed not to drop if you already have it).
I’ve deleted the ram countless times (at least a dozen). On the other hand I think I’ve only ever gotten the kodo 2-3 times. This after about a decade of doing Coren runs nearish daily on 6-12 characters.
It honestly wouldn’t surprise me if something was wrong with the loot table. I got one piece of gear despite running multiple times.
I did get the mount AND the saddle but the saddle seems to have not dropped for tons of people and it really, really seems like an item that should have had a moderately high drop rate.
Most players agree with this approach…Devs just pick the side that provides more “player engagement” …carrot in a stick method that doesn’t provide a good experience…
I’ve been playing since 2008. I run the holiday dungeons on multiple characters (usually 5+) per year. It took me until 2019 to get the Brewfest mounts. I still have not gotten the Headless Horseman’s steed or the Love Is in the Air rocket.
If the old drop rate is 1%, I completely support Blizzard just improving the drop rate for the first run of the day by some significant amount BUT if they do that AND reduce the overall drop rate then I have an issue.
Let me give you an example. Let’s say you have 10 toons and it’s a 10 day event. For a 1% drop rate you have a ~63.4% chance of getting the mount in 100 attempts (1-0.99^100). If the first run of each day has a 5% drop rate then the overall chance improves to 76%. That’s good. But what if the 2nd and subsequent runs each day were reduced to 0.5%? Then the chance is 62%, which is less than it was originally.
It gets more pronounced with more toons. With 200 and 1% drop rate the chance is 87%. At 5%/0.5% it’s 77%.
These are made up numbers but it might explain what I’m seeing.
I mostly agree. For Brewfest you’d need to make the currency account wide (or at least BoA items) because getting 800 tokens on 1 toon is something you’d have to plan from the beginning. I’m not sure it’s even possible to get that many in a single event on a single character. But I agree with the principle.
it sure felt like something was broken this year, id did 12 runs a day for 14 days straight with nothing but a few remotes and shankers to show for it obviously it could be bad rng, but there are lots of comments on wowhead floating the hypothesis that they did something to the mount droprates alongside the addition of the saddle…
Its happened before with loot tables…during MoP …Blizzard swore up and down that the Sha of anger had a mount…guess what about 6 month later they came out and said whoops…they had forgotten to put the Mount on Sha’s loot table…
