0.0002% drop rate on Thistleleaf Adventurer: working as intended

Gameplay Pet Battles
1

A week or so ago I made a post questioning the drop rate on this pet. It comes from the Emissary quest in Val’sarah in Legion.

That Emissary came back around yesterday so I sent 4-5 more chrs through before finally submitting a ticket to question if the thing is bugged.

Because I am now at almost 900 attempts for this pet! I understand statistics. I realize that on a 1% drop rate item, if you run it (sic) 110 times, that doesn’t guarantee you the item. But I also realize that after 900 attempts, the odds of not getting it are 0.0002%.

edit1: May 8, up to 940 attempts.
edit2: May 15, 980 attempts.

The CSR dismissed this by saying “we don’t know what the official drop rate it, you can’t rely on Wowhead statistics for that info.” But it’s the only info we have. You can’t dismiss actual data, merely because it’s not official. It’s still valid data, even if it’s only partial.

What I do know is that they agreed the drop rate for mounts on Legion Paragon boxes wasn’t conducive for the game. They DRAMATICALLY increased the drop rate, from 1% to around 80%!!!

And while the pet doesn’t come from a Paragon box, it’s basically the same dynamic. While you could (for the most part) endlessly farm rep for a Paragon box, you’re limited to farming an Emissary to the 1-2 days a month it’s active. “Normal” playing should yield roughly the same amount of interactions.

Most first-ticket responses are of the auto-ChatGPT variety. This one wasn’t quite that bad, but it did at least “pretend” to look at the drop rate for this item and confirm it’s not bugged.

So I’m to believe the drop rate for this is less than 0.0002%?

Sorry, but that’s absurd.

2

Its going to be easily fixed when Legion Remix coming up this year…as like we had with MoP remix collecting coins from doing stuff like raids or dungeons or just flying in the air you’ll be able to buy that pet like we could buy all those Boss mounts that never seemed to drop for anyone in MoP…

Yes drop rate is absurd I give you another drop rate…when the new fishing dailies of Lich King went live years back it took me over 3 yrs of doing two fishing dailies from Lich King then came about Cata to finally get that Jeweled Fishing pole on this toon here my main…all my others alts got it very quickly…matter fact one of my alts got it first fishing daily it did …but this character over 3 yrs worth of doing them…every day day in day out…that works out to over 1,095+ attempts before I got it…RNG does suck…

3

I’d like to believe that, but there’s nothing that sets that in stone.

I mean, just look at Dinars this season! lol

They could put everything BUT that pet on a vendor. We have no idea how Blizz is gonna play it. Just have to wait and see.

They just haven’t convinced me it isn’t bugged.

4

It’s not bugged. Probability never increases your chances over time unless there’s bad luck protection.

I killed over 40k fox kits in cata for a 0.01% drop. It happens.

5

There’s more to probability than that.

The calculation I put in the title isn’t wrong.

Your simple claim of “it’s not bugged” doesn’t really refute the evidence being provided, since you uhhh… haven’t provided any proof of your own to support your claim.

Until such proof is given, this only evidence we have supports the fact it’s bugged.

6

Except the pets weren’t purchasable in MoP Remix, they were about the only things you couldn’t actually buy with Bronze currency, and (apparently) they didn’t drop from the Remix dungeons or raids either, so unless they go a different route in the future, buying missing pets won’t be a way to avoid bugs or terrible RNG.