Okay, good for you! My degree is from Uni. Of Chicago.
To be fair, in reality, we need data from all players on bnet to get power if we are to consider the game as a whole, which we don’t have. Wc3 champions data, which I think is valuable, says we should only change Orc vs. Elf and Hu vs. Ud matchups. This is not consistent with the patch.
I personally, think the highest lvl is the most important, because there is where imbalances will matter most.
Also, did you even look at your own links? Top tier finalists from 2019 is favoured for human. 2020, I see 3 HU among best 6 players for NeXt, 3 top 6 in WCG 2020, 2 out of 4 for WGL with Human mirror in finals (all 50%). The two earliest tournaments in 2020 is not successful for human, granted, BUT the amount of human players in top 24 is still tied in highest with elf and orc. Honestly, I dont have time to go through all tournaments. Please take into account not only the winners, but the participants in the playoffs. All tourney matches considered, are human performing poorly? no. Prize money? no. So why are all races except human nerfed and hu buffed?
Regarding prize money, human is leading 2020.
Final note: I disagree that last months is only important. I think at least the last year is important regarding balance since it takes some time for patches to be fully executed by players. This is always going to be a judgment call though. You say meta has changed “significantly” which I’m not sure it has and is definitely up for debate. Same first heroes (except for CL and KOTG spring of 2019) and some FS HH that has barely been executed yet. Human still expands Vs ud, goes AM clap Vs Orc with mass breakers, UD Happy style, Elf mass tier 1 Vs Orc etc etc. Of course the patch should at best be based on the last one, but do you really think the CL patch from June is the only valuable data here? The patch shouldn’t come in another few months then when season has finished. I think valuable info can be drawn from previous year regarding things that hasn’t been changed alot in the game. Like stomp and clap and wisps (where is clap here?). Reg. Infi, I meant that we don’t have data on random players. How can you draw the conclusion that “Human players are better than the rest”, simply based on one player playing random? We need a random tournament to be able to compare the players in this regard. Also, he doesn’t “need” to play random, he just won WGL as human! He is an outlier if you consider all players, good and bad, and if you focus on only top tier, his random data doesn’t even nearly prove your hypothesis that “Wc3 players that play the Human race are better wc3 players than other players.” You should know this.
Feel free to read your own links and dispute my statements in the tourneys of top players from 2019-2020, which is what I am mostly talking about, as well as prize money, if you have time and even interest. I will change my mind if your case is solid I promise!
I am however, not happy (neither is my respectable other) that I’m sitting typing about wc3 balance at 5am (lol!), so I’ll be off and will respond to you with thumbs up. We both need a life, and get new PhDs in wc3 patching. Maybe then we can solve this big world problem: will TC stomp get nerfed by 1 or 2 seconds at tier 3!!!