Alright, you want to talk balance in depth? So, here’s the problem and what you constantly omit to speak of in this entire breakdown of matchup imbalances based on expected vs actual winrate - you keep approaching this data from the perspective that the ‘expected win rate’ is correct and the ‘actual win rate’ is what needs to be addressed for balance to be achieved.
The data itself does not make a statement at all on what part is off. In reality, NE vs UD having such a high deviation merely means one thing - NE does much worse vs UD than it does vs Orc and Human. But that could be either because the matchup is UD favored and the others are balanced, or the other matchups are NE-favored and the matchup is even. In either case, it results in the data turning out like this.
So there’s a core there that you never add to discussion of this data set - NE has inflated MMR, which means their expected win rate is generally inflated as well. Why can I dare make such a bold statement? Because Night Elves disproportionately make up the top “X%” of MMR compared to how many players it has, no matter what number you pick for X. Here’s the stats on this:
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Standout stats:
HU: Total - 2017 (28%) | Top 50% - 993 (27%) | Top 2% - 37 (26%) | Top 1% - 15 (21%)
Orc: Total - 1922 (26%) | Top 50% - 929 (25%) | Top 2% - 32 (22%) | Top 1% - 17 (24%)
UD: Total - 1701 (23%) | Top 50% - 805 (22%) | Top 2% - 30 (21%) | Top 1% - 16 (22%)
NE: Total - 1655 (23%) | Top 50% - 921 (25%) | Top 2% - 46 (32%) | Top 1% - 24 (33%)
As you can see, despite having the lowest number of players (1655, 23%, slightly fewer than Undead), they make up exactly a third of the Top 1% of players. And even if you think “well the bottom 50% should be discounted, they don’t play the game seriously and just go by what looks cool, they pollute the data pool”, they still make up 25% of the top 50% MMR players, which is a good distribution, but then you would expect that representation to remain instead of increasing to 33%. Whatever % of players you decide to take as “serious players”, the number should be consistent, or at least not getting higher and higher.
Now you can choose to interpret this fact in two ways. As far as I’m concerned you have to pick one of the two.
- Night Elf players are on average better players than those of other races.
- Night Elf is overall overtuned compared to other races.
If you subscribe to #1, well, that’s a daring view to take and I doubt many will share it, including other NE players. If instead you subscribe to #2, then this casts a shadow on ALL the “expected vs actual” win rates statistics. Because this means Night Elves have disproportionately higher MMR by virtue of being overall overtuned, and thus each of their ‘expected win rate’ stats is inflated. EACH of them.
This means three things:
- Night Elf vs Undead has a lower disconnect between expected and actual win rate than the raw stats imply.
- Night Elf vs Orc is not balanced, but actually NE-favored, at least slightly.
- Night Elf vs Human is, in fact, very likely the most imbalanced matchup in the game.
Note that this does not mean NE vs UD is not UD-favored. It likely still is even if you adjusted the MMR and thus expected win rate of NE players to be more in line with other races. But it is absolutely incredibly disingenuous to put it at this level of importance especially compared to NE vs HU and entirely ignoring the disproportionately high representation of NE in the upper percentiles of MMR while talking about this, which again, unless your position is that NE players are better than others, implies an overall imbalance in favor of NE.
A general nerf to NE such as Moon Wells is thus very much warranted, balance wise. Then we won’t have disproportionately many NEs congregating near the top, lowering their MMR and expected win rate. This lowers the deviation% on NE vs UD, adds the deviation% on NE vs Orc in favor of NE, and increases the deviation% on NE vs HU. Both of the latter ALSO being addressed in this patch with buffs to HU and Orc. So this patch is looking real good for evening out the NE win rates isn’t it?
The elephant in the room I’m not blind to myself is of course the implication of the opposite - are NE players really just that much worse than UD players that their expected win rate of 43.8% against them is too high? It sounds crazy putting it like that, I know, but this is a comparatively very small data set and regardless there’s no way around the fact that NE is way more represented in the top MMR brackets, both in absolute and relative number to the total number of people playing the race. Two explanations for this. Good luck if your position is that NE players are just better than others.
Or do you have a better explanation? I’d love to hear it.