No, there’s a third option. Not to do all that unnecessary work trying to prove that up is down, and instead not assume that Zerg is the hardest race because they have the highest MMR… Which is the stupidest possible conclusion you could come to given the data.
Nope. Refusing to make the calculation is a sub category of option #2:
100% of your conclusions are based upon the assumption that Zerg is the hardest race. 100% of them. The ONLY data you have to support that, is that all 80,000 of you over-perform.
You can state whatever you’d like to overcomplicate the issue until you’ve again proven to yourself that Zerg is hardest race, but you’re still wrong.
You’re not stupid, Batz. You’re just no where near as smart as you think you are.
Nope. Not a single assumption was made in the OP except that the pro scene is of roughly the same skill as the player base, and I clearly stated that assumption in the second post. Every point made in this thread has been derived from evidence (ex: performance is lognormally distributed) or proven through predictions (ex: a linear model is sufficient for estimating trends).
Really? You didn’t assume that mirror match ups were the basis of skill? Interesting. Are you certain that you understand your arguments?
You didn’t disclose the sources of the games, the player base, etc. I won’t do what you asked, because 1. I don’t have the data 2. I don’t have the time (seriously, you say you own like 4 companies, give me a break, homey) 3. I don’t engage in intellectual dishonesty.
Lastly, you actually happen to be correct about Zerg finally being in a bad spot. It doesn’t change the fact that you constantly move the goalposts to support this (even in the days when Zerg was ridiculously OP).
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Correct. I proved it.
Here:
And here:
And here:
And here:
You see, “assumption” means “a thing that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof.” You have a literal mountain of proof, with tens of thousands of data points, multiple precise predictions, and thus it is lying to call something like this, which is supported by hoard of evidence, an “assumption.”
I decided to read more of your post. What you are saying is, again, blatantly false:
Right there is a link to download the whole Aligulac database of games.
My only response to your nonsense (other than refuting your blatant lies) is what I stated originally:
I pointed out that this, right here, is how the conversation would go and then you delivered on queue exactly as I expected. Nothing but blatant lies, insane accusations, absurd psychological projection. Basically everything you accuse me of is exactly what you do, and I do literally the exact opposite.
Yeah that’s a good point. The way you approach analyzing the tails of a distribution is different because you are dealing with an exponential distribution. That’s why I included a broad spectrum of skill at the “pro” level in this analysis. It’s still biased towards the higher skill spectrum for sure, but much less so than looking at the top 50 players.
The scaling of balance with skill is one second-order effect that is created. There are other second-order effects and even third-order effects. For example, players of a disadvantaged race will face off vs weaker opponents, being knocked into lower brackets etc, which skews their win-rate higher. At the same time, the number of games they play will go down, as they are eliminated quicker from tournaments and lose matches faster.
So where does the win-rate drag caused by being underpowered outweigh the win-rate increase of facing vs lower skilled opponents, and how does this combine with the # of games played? Statistical analysis is very complicated due to this second and third order effects.
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Last year, when Zerg was clearly dominating, your metric was “Total number of Zerg pros (which at the time, was nearly 60% of the population)” should have their representation in tournament wins (though this same principle was lost on your when it came to the ladder). Again, I’m not even “interpreting” your metric, I’m repeating exactly what you said was your metric.
Now, your ranking system is controlled for mirror match ups, completely new thing you decided when it became convenient. Are you being intellectually honest this time? Who would know? Nobody with half a brain would listen to you by this point.
If you notice, when the facts change, my opinions change. Zerg started doing poorly, I conceded they were in a bad spot. You’ve been crying like the little girl you are for what? 5 years straight? I don’t think you’ve once admitted anything Zerg had was OP, not even the entire race, just one of its tools. If you ever had anything interesting to say, someone might take you seriously. You lost your last little follower in Goba, now even his disabled little self won’t read what you write, lol.
Side note: remember when you tried to convince yourself he was one of the only intelligent people on the forums? That was hilarious, kid.
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Are you surprised that the quality of my analysis has improved over time, as I was able to collect more data, give the project more time to implement more complicated and sophisticated analysis methods, etc?
I didn’t read the rest of your post. Your accusatory tone and generally conspiratorial worldview is enough to know everything you’re about to say.
You might be, this time. Again, you discredited yourself too greatly and for too long for anyone to actually read your drivel.
Even Goba ignores you now.
Only a fool would look at accomplishments this great and say I’ve been discredited. You live an an alternate reality. Assuming you aren’t a troll, you need help IMO. Please stop harassing me with your accusations, conspiracy theories, etc. Your overtly hostile and accusatory approach is not warranted. This is not war. It’s a conversation. I don’t want you taking your problems out on me. I wish you the best but I can’t help you.
Yea, BatZ was excommunicated when he committed some grave transgressions. But His Excellency Goba teaches us that: “Hate the sin not the sinner (BatZ)”.
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Lol. What? This is why no one can take you and your mediocrity seriously. You constantly talk yourself up as some sort of once in a generation genius, while you’re just so terribly average.
Bourne, you have a serious case of dunning kruger. You can’t even calculate a win-rate when you are provided the formula and all the inputs, let alone mine the data, derive the formulae, etc. Maybe 1 in 1,000 people could do what I have done here. Your attempts at insults are so deranged they make me sad for you. I don’t know what your problem is, but SURELY you have something better to do with your life.
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Yeah, all other non Zergs should be fired from their Organizations.
Zerg just need to drink Mannaroth’s blood, and become fell zerg. Then they will be unstoppable.
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True…
Very few people have the salf-hatred to willingly ignore logic and even their own previous posts, to push an agenda as much as you do.
At this point, when your opinions are fully discredited, and all your friends are actually foes, most would have resoned themselves into changing their tune, by now.
But not you!
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News flash, blatant lying only gets you blocked.