More accurate fact check: Zerg wins every premier tournament

I’m sorry to disappoint you but the law of large numbers is completely unrelated to this situation. Think about what youre saying. To apply the law of large numbers you need to specify a random variable - which in your case is a model for the distribution Zerg wins in trournaments (you have provided no such model, it seems like you are implicitly assuming that its a biased coin i.e. a bernoulie distribution which seems incredibly silly to me). Now law of large numbers says that if you take the average over N tournaments as N goes to infinity this converges with probability 1 to the mean of the random variable. There is no actual uniform number N in the (weak) law of large numbers which says that if you did N trials and then the average is accurate. This is because this “actual number” depends on the variance of the distribution something you haven’t taken into account. Its true that using the central limit theorem you can show that for a biased coin you’d need ~100 coin flips to be 90% sure about the bias of the coin. But this DEPENDS ON THE DISTRIBUTION. In particular the variance. So now you need to convince everyone that the distribution of Zerg’s winning a tournament is most accurately modelled by a bernouli random variable. This is complete nonsense. Its like modelling wind velocity with coin flips - its much to complicated to be modelled by this stupid thing. If anything the distribution of Zerg winning a tournament would have significantly less variance because players are pretty consistent and this game is decided mostly by skill (barring any balance issues) which is also pretty stable factor, at least throughout the span of a single year. This will lower the variance significantly. Which would also lower the number of trials required to be sure about the “bias”.

I’m not gonna do this calculation for you because I think all of this is also completely irrelevant because anyone with half a brain looking at this game can see that something is slightly broken about Zerg at the moment. The number of tournament wins only reinforces this fact.

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