GSL Predictions on Remaining Matches (spoilers RE: 4/19 stream)

Maru is the most likely individual to win at a 46.31% chance. Terran is the most likely race to win (typical for Code S historically) at a 62.07% chance. These predictions are made from a monte carlo tournament simulation based on a statistical analysis of the player’s match history (Elo analysis). It is a sample of 1,000,000 possible tournament outcomes. If a player’s match history is accurate, there is a 37.94% chance of a Rogue vs Maru finals:

Bunny:
Round of 8: 100.00%.
Round of 4: 16.18%.
Round of 2: 5.69%.
Round of 1: 0.55%.

Dream:
Round of 8: 100.00%.
Round of 4: 83.82%.
Round of 2: 21.06%.
Round of 1: 4.92%.

Rogue:
Round of 8: 100.00%.
Round of 4: 67.27%.
Round of 2: 51.60%.
Round of 1: 27.12%.

Zest:
Round of 8: 100.00%.
Round of 4: 32.73%.
Round of 2: 21.64%.
Round of 1: 5.97%.

Hurricane:
Round of 8: 100.00%.
Round of 4: 1.00%.
Round of 2: 0.12%.
Round of 1: 0.01%.

Maru:
Round of 8: 100.00%.
Round of 4: 99.00%.
Round of 2: 73.53%.
Round of 1: 46.31%.

Innovation:
Round of 8: 100.00%.
Round of 4: 49.77%.
Round of 2: 17.22%.
Round of 1: 10.29%.

Trap:
Round of 8: 100.00%.
Round of 4: 50.23%.
Round of 2: 9.13%.
Round of 1: 4.83%.

Terran:
Round of 8: 50.00%.
Round of 4: 62.19%.
Round of 2: 58.75%.
Round of 1: 62.07%.

Protoss:
Round of 8: 37.50%.
Round of 4: 20.99%.
Round of 2: 15.45%.
Round of 1: 10.81%.

Zerg:
Round of 8: 12.50%.
Round of 4: 16.82%.
Round of 2: 25.80%.
Round of 1: 27.12%.

Note: this was based on the round of 8 seeding, so it predicted a strong chance for Dream to advance over Bunny (83.82% vs 16.18%), which has already occurred and is confirmed.

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