W/L MMR backtesting like clockwork with codes

I’ll give full transparent W/L, time, score, and codes.

Like CLOCKWORK. As soon as i hit 1499 on that massive losing streak, my back testing was suggesting that the losing streak capitulated. And then, check this out.

Out of 18 games total played: 3 Losses, 1 tie, 14+ wins. Before the capitulation and trend reversal, I had a series of losing matches 15 losses, 3 ties, and 2 wins. My back testing (time and time again) has suggested that the capitulation point of these Wins and Loss series is within the range of 14-16 wins and/or losses for it to capitulate the win/losing streak.

Here it is in order (unfortunately, i can only get replay codes starting from Temple of Anubis):

W, 2-0, Ilios
W, 1-0, Watchpoint: Gibraltar
W, 2-0, Hanamura
L, 0-1, Rialto
W, 2-1, Busan
W, 3-1, Eichenwalde
Tie, Nepal (match got cancelled)
W, 3-2, Kings Row

W, 2-1, Temple of Anubis - KB5FDR
W, 1-0, Eichenwalde - 6JBYB1
W, 3-1, Junkertown - 86XX38
W, 2-0, Lijiang Tower - 6WXWJ1
W, 2-1, Blizzard World -1W6431
L, 1-2, Nepal - Q11FVQ
L, 1-2, Hollywood - CQE3DT
W, 2-1, Hanamura - CFC7VQ
W, 2-0, Nepal - MTSE1C
W. 1-0, Dorado -03DZ9M

I never throw my matches. I always play to win. I always try my best because I’m not kidding when I say I’m only going to OTP Hanzo until I get to masters.

I am man of my word and I never give up.

One thing to note before you watch and the criticisms of how I suck come flowing in:

Typically the first round, I’ll just tag each and every single one of my opponents to read how they react and move and get inside their heads (this allows me to support each of my teammates as Hanzo). So don’t mistake me missing shots as if I’m missing because I can’t aim. Sure, I miss shots, I’m only human, but a lot of them are very strategic typically within the first round. My goal as a leader who chooses to do his best to carry his team is to help feed my team with good stats to boost their confidence FIRST (I try and make it easy for tanks to get elims and for support NOT to heal me so they can focus on others). Once I read all of my opponents’ moves, I turn on my hard focus and destroy them. Why? Because, this is how I carry.

I feed my team first to build up their self-esteem so they can keep their own momentum up towards the finish. I don’t need a boost in confidence because I simply am confident. I can turn myself on and off at any moment (most of the time).

Regardless of W/L, on to the rant/point I was trying to make. My back testing of this MMR/matchmaking while having been grouped up and then into solo queuing is proving itself to be absolutely TRUE. Time and time again for the last 4, going on 5, seasons.

This needs to be addressed and resolved. This match making clockwork is extremely discouraging because I am concluding that it just simply isn’t a true and adequate reflection of a player’s skill.

In my sincere and honest opinion, matchmaking needs to get OUT OF THE WAY of trying to rig the outcome of the match by trying to build a 50% win rate on both sides. Stay out of the outcome, this is called rigging. Rather, the only TRUE path towards a solution is a matchmaking system utilizing a transparent metric like a range of SR (each player’s range of 0-100sr (i.e. 2000sr player vs 1900-2100sr player match up) where the entirety of that match is matchmade on an ARBITRARY BASIS. Period. Plus, it’ll be WAY MORE FUN this way. Don’t let the whiners and complainers say otherwise–I’m confident that they are NOT the majority.

Arbitrary matchmaking confined within back tested parameters is the path towards THE solution.

MMR has a place in Overwatch. Imo, it just doesn’t belong in competitive play. And IF, it will NOT be removed, then it MUST be reformed.

5 Likes

From a masters hanzo player: this makes absolutely 0 sense and you’re wasting your time and brain power doing this.

12 Likes

my backtesting is in agreement

2 Likes

As a Masters Hanzo MAIN, why would anyone spend the time doing this?

I’d rather just dumpster the kid and move on. No need for strategy when my enemies fall like cherry blossoms.

6 Likes

I am absolutely shocked that people in 2022 think anything other than that a big win streak when you’re fresh isn’t going to be followed by an equal and opposite loss streak one you get fatigued.

Oh noes, why do I win a lot then lose a lot, then the next day it just repeats??!?! Like clockwork, I NEVER QUIT! Imma go to bed now, yawn.

2 Likes

:laughing: my reply was to mercy, i was just agreeing with them with a bit of satire, the forums just suck and dont do a good job at showing reply intent

(im just assuming you thought i was agreeing with bro and thats y you clicked my reply button, if not, ignore me)

fr
its always red flags to me when people overcomplicate their strategies ingame

5 Likes

I truly wonder why I’ve never seen anybody complain about a large win streak.

Oh right, it’s because every win streak is brought by HARD WORK, SKILL, DETERMINATION, but every lose streak is just the classic rigged matchmaker. Nothing they can do!

6 Likes

The great thing that i love about this suggestion that i see all the time is that asking for matching on Skill Rating is asking for skill based matchmaking, and due to the inconsistency of actual humans, even the most narrow attempts are going to be essentially random within a range.

It’s… it’s just hard not to laugh when the system people ask for is the system people have and the system people think we have is some weird, made up impossibility drawn from the fantastical mind of an (apparently) banned conspiracy theorist.

Like, matching on SR is still going to be a 50% win probability, bro. That’s just what it means to be matched on similar skill.

Not that i think you’ll be convinced. This is why the devs don’t respond any more. Blizz! Fix your system my implementing the exact system you have, but, like, worse in the ways I proclaim to care about!!!

3 Likes

Ignored. I got your humor.

1 Like

I’m tempted to load up some of these replay codes…

But I need to play Xenoblade Chronicles 3, so nah.

3 Likes

That’s not to say I don’t generally have a strategy in mind when I’m playing Hanzo.

But I generally leave the micro decision making based on situational awareness and the map itself.

There’s really no need to turn a projectile hero into a rocket scientist based character.

I’ve gotten suckered into my Valorant grind again :rofl::rofl::rofl:

1 Like

Why not?

What’s so wrong with only wanting to play one hero and try and make it to masters with just him?

Is it because it’s impossible? Or that no one has done it with Hanzo? Maybe players have attempted, but gave up?

I understand that the development of this game is about a game of counters and many other things that are important. But, do you know what it is that I believe about the development of hanzo?

Ow devs created the perfect balance of a character, in my opinion, who is hanzo.

Where, for a true master hanzo, there is no hero swap that can counter him. Only the player can counter me. And so,

I’m going for it. Yeah the odds are against me for many reasons, but that reward will be the sweetest.

I welcome the challenge.

Never give up.

1 Like

No, they were saying you were wasting your time with the weird “tag enemies and see how they react” thing.

Just kill them and move on.

7 Likes

You’re most likely not climbing because you’re overthinking things. You’re not getting inside their heads, the way you think you are. As Hanzo, the way to get in people’s heads is to get kills quickly.

Any time you spend playing mind games is time you’re not actually applying damage to help your team.

3 Likes

These are the kind of people who complain about rigged match making :rofl:

I’m utterly bewildered… It’s bemusing to think that playing terribly would result in climbing in rank.

Too much big brain.

2 Likes

Double Shield, Dive, Rush, PharMercy.

Just needs a bit of thinking to actually understand the game =]

More evidence of broken matchmaking. Let’s think about this since most of you have trouble deciphering simple text: He went on a long loss streak, THEN went on a win streak. That means fatigue isn’t a thing here (and what a stupid idea that is anyway that a loss streak can be due to fatigue).

I’ve witnessed the same thing countless times, I know when the win streak has started, the other team doesn’t stand a chance, the teams are NOT 50/50 it’s a complete obliteration of unsupervised children where I could literally go make a ham sandwhich and come back to a VICTORY screen.

The game is stupid, it’s fake, it’s broken, dark ages of matchmaking and the only people who disagree are three people who cheat, get boosted in groups, and/or have no real playing time.

5 Likes

I cant, I expected terrible statements from you as usual, but then you say something even more dumb :skull:

Hard Copium from a Clown =]

3 Likes

hah. EZ. I can take that out any day. The problem that I have is my team giving up so
damn quickly because “OoOo Pharahhh~~ we need a HitTT SCAaannNnN~”. Ridiculous, weak jargon.

As the legendary Arrge says, “haven’t you heard of HitScanzo?”. Yeah, that’s EVERY TRUE Hanzo (like me). Precisely.

Trust me. PharMercy is hella ez. Play Hanzo long enough to develop the right skills (as I have) and you know how easy it is to pick the mercy. If Ana (or any support) taps me at least twice to give me one more round with the pocketed Pharah, THAT, too, is HELLA ez. If i have ZERO support, then I simply time my approach against the Pharah and WAM, ez.

Double shield? EZZZZZ All i have to do is FLANK and it’s GG for them.

Dive? Come at me Monkey. So long as I have storm arrow, your face is mine. I do not cower from a fight. Come at me DVA. You’re easier than monkey so i’ll leave it at that.

Honest to God, most difficult hero to deal with is a damn good Hog. Period.

I believe that ONE player can hard carry a team. However, can the player do it EVERY time? No. I sincerely believe that there is no victory WITHOUT a team. Even if you suck, so long as you DON’T give up, with me on your team, we’ll always have a chance to win.

Overwatch is truly a psychological game more than anything. And, yeah, it’s quite heavily team dependent which is fine.

1 Like