Win/Loss Streak Patterns Analysis (Competitive Mode)

Competitive Discussion
1

Below are recorded wins and losses over a series of 100 games. The purpose of this is to show the mirror like effect with streaks and how they seem to reciprocate your wins with the equivalent losses immediately after. I’ve also done 100 coin flips to see if a 50% ratio had similar patterns (I used a coin flip app).

There is a key difference in regards to the games versus coin flips. With the games, I am actively testing my skill, so one could say that I am plateauing and that’s why I’m having mirrored results. This is true to an extent, but it should be considered that the matchmaker is said to give a 50/50 win chance on average. An interesting thing to consider is how can anyone plateau or reach a ceiling if the matches are made to be on average a 50/50 win chance each game? Even your peak SR games would be a 50/50 win chance so by this logic there should be no hard ceilings. Which means there’s probably a bit more to the matchmaker.

Personally I think that “bit more” is exactly what causes these streak patterns, otherwise if games were always set to try to be 50/50 win ratios my matches would look more like the coin flips.

I’ve split the following results into groups where it seemed like the wins/loss streaks had a mirrored pattern to them indicated by the “:::::+:::::” in the middle of the groups where I think the mirroring begins. In which case you should see a mirrored number of wins/losses of near perfect streak patterns with minor discrepancies perhaps. Technically I was climbing during these hundred games so the minor discrepancies could be due to that, which offset the patterns, but a perfect 50% win ratio could perhaps look more mirrored. If a group has the word “exception” above it, it means that there does not appear to be a (significant) mirrored streak pattern present within that group.

(There are 55 wins, 43 losses, & 2 draw games. The coin landed heads 49 times and tails 49 times with for a total of 98 tosses minus the two tosses representing the draw games)

MATCHES |ll| COINFLIPS

01. WIN xxxxx tails
02. WIN xxxxx tails
03. WIN xxxxx HEADS
04. WIN xxxxx HEADS
05. WIN xxxxx HEADS
06. WIN xxxxx tails
07. WIN xxxxx HEADS
:::::+:::::
08. loss xxxxx tails
09. loss xxxxx HEADS
10. draw-----------------
11. loss xxxxx HEADS
12. loss xxxxx HEADS
13. WIN xxxxx tails
14. loss xxxxx HEADS
15. loss xxxxx tails

16. WIN xxxxx tails
17. WIN xxxxx HEADS
18. loss xxxxx HEADS
:::::+:::::
19. WIN xxxxx HEADS
21. loss xxxxx tails
22. loss xxxxx tails

20. WIN xxxxx HEADS
21. loss xxxxx HEADS
22. loss xxxxx HEADS
23. WIN xxxxx tails
:::::+:::::
24 .WIN xxxxx HEADS
25. WIN xxxxx HEADS
26. loss xxxxx tails
27. draw-----------------
28. loss xxxxx HEADS

29. WIN xxxxx tails
30. WIN xxxxx tails
31. loss xxxxx tails
32. WIN xxxxx HEADS
33. WIN xxxxx HEADS
34. WIN xxxxx tails
:::::+:::::
35. loss xxxxx HEADS
36. loss xxxxx HEADS
37. WIN xxxxx tails
38. WIN xxxxx tails
39. loss xxxxx tails
40. loss xxxxx HEADS

41. WIN xxxxx tails
42. WIN xxxxx HEADS
43. WIN xxxxx HEADS
44. WIN xxxxx HEADS
:::::+:::::
45. loss xxxxx tails
46. WIN xxxxx HEADS
47. loss xxxxx tails
48. loss xxxxx HEADS
49. loss xxxxx tails

Exception
50. WIN xxxxx tails
51. loss xxxxx HEADS
52. WIN xxxxx tails
53. WIN xxxxx HEADS
54. loss xxxxx HEADS
55. WIN xxxxx HEADS

56. loss xxxxx HEADS
57. WIN xxxxx tails
58. WIN xxxxx HEADS
59. WIN xxxxx tails
:::::+:::::
60. loss xxxxx HEADS
61. WIN xxxxx tails
62. loss xxxxx tails
63. loss xxxxx tails

64. WIN xxxxx HEADS
65. WIN xxxxx HEADS
66. WIN xxxxx tails
:::::+:::::
67. loss xxxxx tails
68. loss xxxxx tails
69. loss xxxxx tails

70. WIN xxxxx tails
71. WIN xxxxx HEADS
:::::+:::::
72. loss xxxxx HEADS
73. loss xxxxx tails

74. WIN xxxxx tails
75. WIN xxxxx tails
76. WIN xxxxx tails
77. WIN xxxxx tails
78. WIN xxxxx HEADS
79. WIN xxxxx tails
80. WIN xxxxx HEADS
:::::+:::::
81. loss xxxxx HEADS
82. loss xxxxx HEADS
83. WIN xxxxx tails
84. loss xxxxx tails
85. loss xxxxx HEADS
86. loss xxxxx tails

87. WIN xxxxx HEADS
89. WIN xxxxx tails
90. WIN xxxxx tails
91. WIN xxxxx tails
92. WIN xxxxx HEADS
:::::+:::::
93. loss xxxxx tails
94. loss xxxxx tails
95. loss xxxxx tails
96. loss xxxxx tails
97. WIN xxxxx HEADS

*Exception
98. WIN xxxxx HEADS
99. loss xxxxx HEADS
100. WIN xxxxx tails

The following are the wins and losses and the heads and tails represented by a number indicating the length of the streaks. There are no double digit streaks so I grouped them up streamlined digit by digit to save space and to show hot zones where streaks numbers are high that way you can see when comparing wins/losses how the win hot zone seem to be countered by the loss hot zones in a more streamlined/concise manner. Basically its another way of looking at the above information. I’ve also done it with the heads or tails to see if any patterns show up and just for comparison sake.

(W = Wins & L = Losses, H = Heads & T = Tails)

W: 712113232411213132715111
L : 4212211122131111232541

H: 313134212213111411221311112
T: 21112113131112111355121341

The following are just the games that I recorded in the original raw format from which I extracted these results, in case anyone is interested.

  1. 1684 +26
  2. 1710 +23
  3. 1733 +23
  4. 1756 +24
  5. 1780 +27
  6. 1807 +33
  7. 1840 +33
  8. 1873 -22
  9. 1851 -21
  10. 1830 +00 Draw
  11. 1830 -23 Leaver
  12. 1807 -24
  13. 1783 +19
  14. 1802 -29
  15. 1773 -24
  16. 1749 +23
  17. 1772 +19
  18. 1791 -21
  19. 1771 +21
  20. 1792 +20
  21. 1812 - 24
  22. 1788 -25
  23. 1763 +25
  24. 1784 +14
  25. 1798 +24
  26. 1822 -25
  27. 1797 +00 Draw
  28. 1797 -49 Thrower
  29. 1748 +20
  30. 1768 +16
  31. 1784 -25
  32. 1759 +24
  33. 1783 +20
  34. 1802 +23
  35. 1825 -23 Thrower
  36. 1802 -24
  37. 1778 +24
  38. 1802 +17
  39. 1819 -21
  40. 1798 -25 DC’ed but reconnected
  41. 1773 +26
  42. 1799 +25
  43. 1824 +16
  44. 1840 +29
  45. 1869 -25
  46. 1844 +27
  47. 1871 -27
  48. 1844 -26
  49. 1818 -28
  50. 1790 +21
  51. 1811 -26
  52. 1785 +21
  53. 1806 +18
  54. 1824 -28
  55. 1796 +22
  56. 1818 -23
  57. 1795 +20
  58. 1815 +17
  59. 1832 +20
  60. 1852 -24 Thrower
  61. 1828 +22
  62. 1850 -21
  63. 1829 -26
  64. 1803 +18
  65. 1821 +20
  66. 1841 +22
  67. 1863 -22
  68. 1841 -23
  69. 1818 -23
  70. 1795 +22
  71. 1817 -6
  72. 1811 -23
  73. 1788 -22
  74. 1766 +22
  75. 1788 +22
  76. 1810 +21
  77. 1831 +20
  78. 1851 +19
  79. 1870 +23
  80. 1847 +17
  81. 1864 -22
  82. 1842 -24
  83. 1818 +27
  84. 1845 -25
  85. 1820 -24
  86. 1796 -22
  87. 1774 +21
  88. 1795 +22
  89. 1817 +20
  90. 1837 +20
  91. 1857 +18
  92. 1875 -23
  93. 1852 -27 Leaver
  94. 1825 -23
  95. 1802 -22
  96. 1780 +22
  97. 1802 +18
  98. 1820 -21
  99. 1799

Since Blizzard is rather secretive regarding how the matchmaking system works an analysis such as this is meant to hopefully shine light a bit of light on this matter. It may not show anything exact or precise in regards to Blizzard’s system, but it might at the very least give us an idea, and perhaps little by little help develop a general understanding of how it all works.

9 Likes
2

I haven’t fully read through this but just wanted to say well done on keeping track of all of this. Interesting stuff…

:face_with_monocle:

2 Likes
3

From what I’m reading coin flips have less streaks then this game?

Also could you add time of day, ping per game (or average what you normally get).

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4

Yes this matter because it means that the match maker doesn’t just set up balanced matches. It’s indicative of some form of manipulation, to what end exactly is unknown.

As for pings and time of days, im not sure if that was sarcasm or not (hard to be sure nowadays on the internet) but in any case im not sure what end adding those details would hope to achieve and i never recorded those details so they would be impossible for me to add unless i start over on a new list.

I guess if i was super committed on singlehandedly figuring out the matchmaker myself i could record all the info available per match. However im not THAT curious to do it all that work by myself. The only reason released this is because i saw it as slightly related to the “forced wins/losses” & “loser queue” topics that sprang up as of late and the information could be extracted from my SR recordings.

5 Likes
5

Match maker takes in multiple variables. Ping and location might be one of those variables. Also endorsements and avoids.

Record as many variables you can.

1 Like
6

For what purpose? How do they relate to the streaks? The point is that these games were played over a series of many games and many hours likely with a large variety of different variables regarding endorsements, avoids, ping, locations. However despite all those different variables the streaks still happen to consistently. So in terms of the streaks I don’t think those variables would be very impactful.

As for finding out how the Matchmaker matches you then yes those are variables may be very important as you can read in the patent it’s likely that it does match you based on preferences. I used to think that nobody liked break and that’s why I could lock her in every game but now I suspect that is simply puts me with people who don’t like picking brig so that I can pick her all the time, is according to the matchmaking patent that would be the likely case.

However the main focus right now is just to prove that these patterns exist and that they do in fact happen and aren’t a matter of just assumption or an over reaction. To raise awareness on this matter and see if anybody may have any inputs whether for or against it’s validity. Then with higher awareness hopefully get the attention of Blizzard to see what’s going on and if it’s indicative of foul Play then hopefully get some changes regarding that and hopefully the Matchmaker overall.

1 Like
7

Is that air your breathing?

I’d also track medals and cards.

At this point yes we can kept this at a high level of influence but if you actually want to figure it out you have to track variables.

The benefits of tracking and recording so someone else can recreate. Peer reviewed and recreated…

8

You dont recreate it in the typical way because were are not in control of a the variables if match maker is manipulating things the we’d have to test/confirm more reactively instead if proactively. You play games and record the same data that is listed here (wins and losses. You then see if the wins and losses have similar patterns as indicated by the groupings and streak hot zones thats i laid out to see if a similar pattern exists in your recorded games. That is how you confirm my findings for yourself.

It is the closest thing to a confirmation we can get since if it is in fact a reality, the likehood of Blizzard revealing/confirming our findings willingly would be slim to none as it would look bad on them.

Im not sure what you wish to accomplish here. Im not sure what blizzard means to you, but as the (i assume) consumer, topics like these would only be beneficial if fruitful, and if not, then niether was your own time wasted. What your doing is counter productive. Unless for some reason you’d serve to benefit from broken or decietful systems or in maintaining ignorant consumers.

Unless you otherwise wish to enlighten on me what exactly your gaining or trying to achieve here? Or is it perhaps a much more basic matter of common trolling?

2 Likes
9

At this point, you recorded 100 games analyzing the win loss record.

Cool story bro

If you want the community to believe you that the match maker is tilting in one way or another I just think you have to dig a little deeper. If you want to convince me - and believe me, I’m more inclined to believe than others on this forum - all I’m asking is to add a little more data.

You presented a pattern that’s more than random. Ok? Well if the win streaks started happening around 7 pm… in YOUR time zone, than those you want to rank up know what to look for. I’m looking for something deeper to a pattern so I know when to avoid the crazy teammates.

By no means am I trying to hack the servers lol, at the end of the day it’s still a pool of random people and no match is guaranteed. But just like “stacking”, if there are other variables that WE can control outside of skill, I’d like to know.

That’s all. Otherwise just ignore my request and thanks for sharing. It’s up to you. Maybe next season I’ll do more data collection, but it’s time consuming as you know which is why I appreciate your data and your comparison to a head flip.

10

There’s no reason to believe matchmaker uses endorsements.

3 Likes
11

There is no way of telling. What’s dangerous about endorsements is it’s account level.

Folks what you can’t prove you have to assume. And at this point assume everything because nothing official was provided.

Yes improving ones skill will help over time.

2 Likes
12

being players are not consistent in their game play. If you run a race in the “2min average lap time” class someone will always win being it’s not like everyone is a perfect 2min every lap.

but even winning the 2min class with a personal best of a 1:45 lap time average doesn’t make that person ready to race in 1:40 average.
it’s why to rank up you have to be significantly better over a chunk of games. That 2min lap time has to fall to 1:35-1:38, then you can race the 1:40 average class

5 Likes
13

Thats not the same thing. A 50/50 win chance means that the matchmaker took your skill into account and sets you up for a 50% chance of winning. Weather your at peak SR or not.

Of course this assumption is based off the limited info blizz gives us. We can assume more info however if the matchmaker is setting you up to test you that dives into match manipulation.

There is no time or day we’re ranking up is easier. Because if you face easier opponents during a certain time then you also get easy to be players on your team as well. That is, unless you’re queuing up for a 6v6 with friends then maybe

I strictly solo queue.

And the patterns appear, they’re right there they’re not random like the coin flips that is something. The fact that they continue to appear over 100 games is suspicious. And you can see the hot zones correlates coincidentally at the same time. I Specifically did 100 games there was not to have a small pool to work with. Whether you recognize the significance and what it means is completely up to you, and well that would be one less person.

I get it, you work with the idea that nothing can be completely proven and you push to have every single detail specifically to highlight ridiculousness I’m looking for little details that might be the reason that one ranks up or down instead of just doing the thing that everyone knows would work “getting better”. Perhaps a unique way I’m ridiculing the opposition by joining their side and just being the extra working member that wants to know every little detail. Because you’re not going to discount the possibility that there is something if he going on but if there is you want every little detail exposed because you never know right?

You really don’t need every little detail. Right here I proved that there is a pattern and it is significant and I didn’t need any detail revealed by blizzard it’s my own doing. The discoveries of this world in which we have nothing to work with yet we eventually came across patterns which better work with and implement into math science. Without Blizzard’s help we could if we really wanted to figure out how it worked so that we would be satisfied in all accounts, without ever having one detail from blizzard.

Though continue your crusade as you wish.

2 Likes
14

eh, it’s the same thing because of the wiggle room of averages. If you grouped 12 racers into 2 driver teams of 6 it would be a 50% win chance for each team.

all the Overwatch match maker is doing is a team average with tons of wiggle room. It doesn’t care about +80SR peak or whatever when the range is I think a 1000SR for metal ranks. It just finds people with close to the same MMR and throws them into a game, being that’s all it has to do for a 50% win chance over time.

all the complicated stuff is the MMR vs SR and if it thinks you should be higher or lower based off secrets Blizzard has never shared. Yet a few people did crack it enough to abuse it early on playing off meta in losses at high SR or the whole mercy rez only issue.

but hey if you’re having fun tracking data then keep doing it. I mean given everyone but blizzard is sort of guessing at this anyways maybe no one is right.

2 Likes
15

All knowledge math and sciences began with nothing. If you’ve given nothing to work with you have to create something to work with, and if there’s anything significant that comes as a result then that’s a start.

The reason I began doing this is because something seemed a little off. Either am I the first one to say that streaks happen in patterns or other things, but then people say that it’s all in your head or you’re just thinking about it too much. Which is why I initially started tracking my Sr, to find out if was just imagining things or was I really ranking down with a positive win ratio. That led to other things, not necessarily trying to prove every little thing but it doesn’t take much to write down the Sr after every match, and I also wanted to see if people are simply just saying things or if there’s some truth to common claims.

In regards to streak patterns, it seems to me like it wasnt just some crazy assumption going around but and that these peoples intuition did in fact catch on to a peculiarity.

1 Like
16

Not sure why it happens to begin with. It doesn’t make much sense, when matchmaking tries to push you down, despite you winning more games, than you lose.

1 Like
17

Clicked in to see the OP’s data, stayed to watch SgtSlaughter spiral…

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18

It means the player is performing worse than the average player on a specific hero, like doing less damage, dying more and etc

19

Not if im consistently winning more games than the average player on a specific hero , hence the 57% win ratio.

Statistically I die less than most brig players, get more objective kills, get significantly more gold medals and objective time & literally the top 1% in damage blocked.

My stats like damage, elims, healing, assists are below average (although my healing could be a lot higher if i didn’t block so much damage, since it means i heal myself less)

Basically i win because i lack the skill to lose :+1:

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20

Its kind of logical because you dont need skill to toss coin.

Its impossible to compare both because if you toss head 10 times, it is not harder to toss coin again.

But if you win 10x you play against more experienced players so it is harder to win again.

Comparison with tossing the coin honestly fails becsuse result of coin toss work based on chance or basicly luck. Overwatch games does not work like that. Games are not same always as coin is.

3 Likes