Win rate and vs AI

By now we all agree that most OW games are NOT fairly balanced. Mainly due to lack of a player base and forced short ques.

We need to accept this as part of the game I guess.

What I do have a huge problem with is that I have a 40% winrate… Isn’t Blizzard supposed to make sure everybody is close to 50%?
Don’t you dare start blaming me as the factor for this 40%. I always try my best and there are way better players than me, but also way worse. If a worse player than me gets to have 50% wins, this is completely unfair.

Sometimes I do play vs AI to chill. These games are almost always victories (99% of the time). When I include these games, I do have a 50% winrate, but I cannot believe that Blizz (eventhough I have 0 faith in them) counts this for 50%. It must be a coincidence right? If not, it would mean that each vs AI you play would cause a loss in QP or ranked.

My win rate with Mercy in ranked last season after like 12+ hrs was 41%

My Lucio win rate after 6hrs was over 70%

In my case, all depends on the hero

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No they are not. They have said multiple times they are not forcing people to be near 50%. They try to make matches where they think the outcome of either team winning is close to 50%. Obviously that doesn’t always happen, but it’s the idea.

That’s not what OP is asking in this thread

Literally quoted part of what they asked and answered it.

The second part of their post depends on the first being true, about blizz forcing 50% win rate. Which is untrue. So I didn’t comment on it.

You did not answer it whatsoever
Maybe Blizzard doesn’t force 50% winrate, but they still do SOMETHING in order for the matchmaking to work. OP is wondering if vs AI winrate AFFECTS that SOMETHING.

But, the question doesn’t make any sense if you understand how the matchmaker works and that was what Conflagration was pointing out. The system does not try to enforce a 50% win rate. What it does is try to make matches where each team has an equal chance of winning (50/50). Vs AI has nothing to do with that because there is only one team. The matchmaker does not care if the AI has an equal chance to win against the players.

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Of course your mmr is based on your gameplay.

Their question about ai winrate was based on the premise that blizz is putting people at 50%, which they are not.

But no, I highly doubt ai winrate would matter for any other game mode. It would be very silly for it to count since each match is a stomp.

I’m sorry, but did you just type that the matchmaker is trying to make games where everyone has a 50% chance of winning? Are you joking? If that is indeed it’s intention, then it fails at it’s purpose completely. Most games are a foregone conclusion from the start.
I’m convinced that no matchmaking at all would result in more fair games… No no, it is clear that MM is focusing on win% as a whole, not per game. If not they are epcily failing in their purpose.

You’re probably getting 50% on other heroes in the same role. So the matchmaker expects your performance to match your best hero in every match. Either that or you’re slightly over-ranked and the matchmaker can’t give you 50% at your current skill level. In any case, it does always try to steer your winrate closer to 50%, but it can still be slightly over or under depending on how strong the hero is, that’s normal.

My winrate on bap was something like 58% in QP and I have like 300 hours on him.

This isn’t actually true though for many players. If it is true for some players, those players are currently over-rated by the matchmaker. That’s why they end up with a win percentage lower than 50% for a time. But during that time, the matchmaker is continually revising their MMR downward in order to more accurately make matches giving them a 50% chance to win the match.

There are a few complications here:

  1. Overwatch is inherently snow-bally. (They begun to address this in one way in the most recent patch, by creating spawn waves.)
  2. The playerbase of the game has internalized some very harmful narratives which add a great deal of randomness to matches. (Things like, “I have no control over the outcome of the match- the outcome is decided before the match even begins,” make it more likely that someone has less impact on their matches. Which makes the entire system more chaotic.
  3. In a game with players who drop in and out of the player pool and where new players come in with little to no understanding of the game, matches are harder to make fair than in a game with a more stable player base.

The big thing to understand, though, is that if a player perceives that they have little/no agency over the outcome of their matches, they will not make the sorts of choices that a player who perceives that they have agency over the outcome of their matches will make. This means that the player who perceives that they have agency, will have more agency in their matches than the player who perceives that they have little/no agency. And this means that players who think that their matches are outside their control, will have more matches that are outside their control- it’s a positive feedback loop that lowers the quality of matches for everyone with a player who thinks matches are outside their control on their team.

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