Everyone has a different definition of “dead.” There will be people calling OW2 dead on launch day.
The game will have regular content for at least a couple years, I have to imagine. More than Halo Infinite, certainly. Although I do have a prediction that we see a delayed hero within a year or two, just based on Blizzard’s glacial production speed. As in, two seasons in a row of new maps.
My prediction, based on OW2’s current reputation and what I think OW’s ceiling is in general, is that the player count will not meet Blizzard’s expectations. It will be a respectable number, but not in the top tier of multiplayer shooters. I’ll say within 6 months it will become clear that OW has a lower ceiling than people think.
OWL will never be as big as Blizzard wants, or what OWL fans think it has the potential to be. I say this as an OWL fan myself. It’s not getting the boost people are hoping OW2 brings, I just don’t buy it.
I think OW2 will either go on maintenance mode in 2024 OR be completely restructured before then. They will not let this game continue as is without getting big player numbers, and I simply don’t think it can get those numbers. This game has gotten a lot of resources over the years, especially lately, and it doesn’t have much to show for it. I think it’s on thin ice.
No matter what, it won’t be shut off forever. It will never get low enough that it doesn’t make SOME money, even if it’s not what Blizzard is hoping for. In that sense, it won’t “die.” But maintenance mode within 2 years isn’t out of the question.
I also have a theory that they can’t make heroes forever, or even for that much longer. They are not exactly bursting with wild, creative ideas these days. I don’t think Team 4 has the juice they used to have, given all the departures. And frankly I don’t think they have the passion and creativity to make cool new heroes anymore. They are just filling out checklists and meeting deadlines now.