Theory for potatoes

Competitive Discussion
26

This all reassuring but you kinda lost me when you said certainty is not used when specifically we got …

Now this makes sense:

Things we dont know but sound nice:

The reason why this is a theory, is because no-one of can prove or disprove accept someone who works at blizzard.

I believe this all falls under absents of proof does NOT disprove anything. We know its part of the MMR, thats what we do know. So far its a theory I too cant prove it, but it “feels” like it happens to me. Beginning of the season I wasnt getting potatoes, but towards the end (and especially during events and in weekends) they come in bulk.

The only thing you COULD argue is about the personal preference. The fact that I lost 400~500 SR every two games for a week - tells me whatever the matchmaker is doing I dont like it. (mean while still grinding on other accounts that dont have as much play time).

ANNNNND lastly, why are we defending an algorithm in 2016. Are you telling me there are no more advancements or things to try in this field? If you want them to try new systems you cant be complacent with the current 2016 model. For you guys to always say git gud YOU are complacent with tech built in 2016.

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27

Please read what exactly I wrote. Uncertainty is part of the system and intertwined with MMR and a crucial value for things like PBSR. However, certainty is not one of the matchmaking factors. Those are limited to region, MMR, performance, ping, group size.

Please, read what I wrote. I don’t wanna repeat myself over again when it’s right there.

Nothing ‘resets’. At some point, the certainty value will start to decay. When that point is, I don’t know. It is definitely not 2 weeks tho because you don’t lose your skills that fast. For this reason, something like not having played for 2 seasons seems like a much more reasonable estimate for when that certainty decay starts to kick in.

Certainty is a means for the system to recognize which players’ MMR has to be quickly adjusted to place them acurately on the ladder; it is not part of the criteria to ship matches.

It’s possible to have 12 people with the exact same MMR and wildly different certainty in one match. What happens? The game ends and the MMR of those players with the lowest certainty is adjusted the most, while that of the players with high certainty only moves a little.

Because this has been stated numerous times by devs (as well as the post you are citing), and certainty is used in matchmaking systems outside of Overwatch too. Blizzard didn’t invent this.

We actually do know this, as I said above.

I am assuming weekend queues are worse quality wise because the percentage of bad actors is higher. During the week, especially during school time, mostly people who take the game seriously are playing at their respective rank. On the weekend people have more time to troll.

A theory can still be disproven with logic and thought experiments. Additionally, most sbmm systems are very similar on a fundamental level and certainty is a crucial factor whose purpose is also fairly obvious.

So while you got some things right, you arrived at wrong conclusions.

Well it just tells me that you either had an unlucky streak (which is bound to happen for people who play as much as you do), play inconsistently, or play tilted.

No I am not telling you this. I am simply trying to explain to you how the current system works. How are you supposed to make suggestions to improve the system when you fail to understand how it works in the first place?

That’s a nonsensical statement. I don’t defend the system. I am simply trying to provide explanations. Systems like these can almost always be improved. In the end, though, your understanding of the system stands in no correlation with your improvement as a player which is why so many people just give the advice to git gud.

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28

I guess I’ll keep this simple.

Your post aren’t blue and you don’t know how the algorithm works.

You write as if you do.

At this point we have to agree to disagree. You speak in the past as if you can figure things out when my training, background, and education can’t allow me to make such assumptions.

The only thing we have concrete is the patents but again your so sure they’re not in the game. Your so sure of everything, life must be boring.

29

Great observation. I never claimed to have the secret sauce and know all the intricacies of the Overwatch matchmaking algorithm, but I have a fairly good understanding how it works on a fundamental level because my statements are based on orange posts as well as knowledge about matchmaking systems in general.

I make it very clear when I am talking about facts and when I am theorizing. The purpose of certainty in matchmaking systems is no novelty, it’s nothing special, nothing that is unintuitive. It is merely a means for the system to determine how fast the system has to adjust the MMR of a player in order to reach the goal of the matchmaker as fast as possible: accurately place said player on the ladder.

Google it, you will find plenty of hits explaining it better than I am.

The only thing concrete about patents is that the concept exists, it makes absolutely no statement about whether they are being used or not. I also never made the claim that none of them are being used. I am agnostic in that respect and simply assume that some of them are very unlikely to be used in PVP.

Not sure why you felt the need to insult me when I genuinely tried to engage in a thorough discussion with you.

Why do you come to the forums to share one of your theories and then be upset when I disprove them with simple thought experiments (and in this case even by the evidence you yourself cited)?

You also fail to keep your short comings as player separate from your theories about the matchmaker which biases them. The theory is centered around your bad experience and a good example for ‘confirmation bias’.

You will never get that info you think you have to find to get better at the game. I’ll say it one last time, your performance as a player stands in no relation with your understanding of the match making system. In fact, I would argue that the less you think about these things (along with other things that are out of your control) the more you will thrive as a player.

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30

It boggles my mind to have proven something when…

If you don’t know then your just setting yourself up for an assumption.

I agree! This is why I don’t make posts while playing the game. But when I don’t play game I can’t make posts? But my performance to navigate the ranks could stand to to benefit. If I find out that after 100 wins the potatoe factor is going to be stronger… then by all means I’ll stop playing to avoid some frustration.

And this is my point! WE have NO knowledge, we have no details. We have that thread saying MMR is stored as a value with another component of uncertainty- but somehow YOU can extract that uncertainty is not used when it makes matches? Your not fooling me.

We’ll have to agree to disagree.

31

Just not true! Here is a thread from a developer detailing a few things about how games are made. You are quite uneducated to be making such bold claims.

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32

Bob, you don’t need to know every single detail about the matchmaker to disprove specific theories about it. A general understanding of the system is often sufficient to say with certainty that some things are possible and others are not.

That’s not the case. There, saved you lots of trouble.

We do, as I have told you a million times now. The thread you posted cited their sources, which leads to the Role Q orange post explaining in great detail how they make use of certainty.

And on top of that, as I have said before, there is lots of information about matchmaking systems in general out there that also include certainty values. Do you not realize that there is a world beyond the overwatch forums?

The only person who’s fooling anyone is you fooling yourself.

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33

This, I cannot believe in. This is like your telling the cat is dead (or alive) cause of how much time has passed.

Just not* how I was raised and went thru school(s).

34

wall of text, did not read. get to the point.

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35

I remember nerds, but not losers.
PC gaming was thing for rich nerds in ancient times, cause prices were high.
And those rich nerds often were intoxicated, they listened to metal music, had long hairs, glasses and were very toxic ha

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36

Ye, why not. Different teams have different rules. While tourneys dont allow alcohol inside the venue, as long youre not piss drunk no one cares. Some do few beers in between, most though wait till plays are over, so they can celebrate it hard by getting wasted.

Top league official stuff is on different level obviously. But so is OWL

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37

I would describe a soldier who can play for over 8 hours without a rocket kill as a potatoe. Did you realise I am quoting your soldier stat?

It’s great you have your stats open. Head to omnicmeta and it is quite evident that there is no way you should be ranked higher.

It seems with all your DPS characters you are in the bottom 30% or worse for ultimate kills. Some as low as bottom 12%. This is comparing you to other gold players.

Plenty of other stats to see so head on over.

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38

Well that happens when you have 900sr player playing lol

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39

Have you ever considered the fact that those people whom you call potatoes think the same thing about you?

Like for example one of your support when they see you taking ages to turn around and shoot at the person shooting at you or getting out of an immortality field that was put there to save you, because of reasons?

Then the rest of the team sees you do that and simply gives up thinking to themselves “you cannot carry this potato”, reports you and avoids you. Then you come here and post a topic about how bad they are.

Have you ever considered that angle perhaps?

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40

Wasnt he addressing himself? Cause thats the theory he believes in and… its for potatoes lol

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41

Bob is well known for calling people on his team potatoes, entering his matches with a mindset of “I wonder who on my team will cause me to lose”, and spends the whole game looking at what his teammates are doing instead of actually playing the game and concentrating on himself.

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42

Maybe that’s exactly the reason why you can’t progress as a player.

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43

Oooh sick burn! But… it’s not true.

Overbuff has me at top 4% for helix rocket kills.

And any post not relating to the theory is probably trolling and will be flagged as such.

As for seeking potatoes during the game:

This not true!

I cannot say this enough. I usually find the potatoes during replays when trying to better myself.

It’s too much distraction trying to find them during the game. Except for tanks. Usually a potato tank never contests the escort on defense.

The mere fact you guys are trolling makes me think this theory is true.

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44

uhm, no it hasnt, you are in the 4th percentile (top 96%) aka out of 100 you are 96th

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45

U got me!

My low helix rocket makes me a potato?

Mean while back to omnicmeta, my solider is 60% gold, and my Ashe is 75% gold.

Hero dmg, crits, and deaths are all above 80% gold, but my HELIX ROCKETS! - please avoid me!

Meanwhile not to be sidetracked, can you add to this conversation?

And as the season goes on… if there are any uncertain people still remaining, the more likely a certain person is going to be match with “uncertain” people, and more likely to be more casuals or people who dont play that role often.