It’s been three months now since the Sym rework went live. I and other players have chronicled her performance in the first couple months here: 〽 Sym 3.0: worse pickrate than 2.0, winrate DOWN 7%. The overwhelming consensus: poor, in need of assistance.
However, as proud as I am of that thread, its somewhat hard to discern the stats from the buff suggestions, so I wanted to make a new one to explore the state of Sym in the current meta.
Here’s her pick & win rate for both the current day (3 months on), the day before the rework, and ~2.5 months before that (the furthest back I can find data on Sym in a 3 monthish time range), courtesy Overbuff:
1 May: 0.68% / 59.38%
26 Jun: 0.82% / 59.37%
18 Oct: 0.97% / 56.23%
Her all-time highs for pick/winrates in the period before the rework were 0.91% / 65.16%, and her all-time lows were 0.67% / 57.45%.
Since the rework, she currently rests at a pickrate 0.07% higher than her previous all time high, and a winrate 1.22% lower than her previous all time low.
To some this might seem like a success, however small. “It makes sense her winrate is decreasing as her pickrate goes”, you might think. And you would be right.
However, you would also be failing to grasp the insignificance of this change compared how close (or not) Sym’s pick and win rates are compared to what could be considered a “normal” pick and win rate for a hero.
Now, obviously, the definition is “normal” here is invariably subjective, at least to some degree. It woudl be impossible to come up with an “absolute” definition of a normal pick and win rate for a hero. However, we can gauge how normal a hero’s pick/win rates are relatively, and it is by this metric I will be judging Symmetra’s perfomance.
By doing this, I hope to provide a clear answer to the question: what was the true impact, if any, of the Sym 3.0 rework on Sym’s position in the meta?
So how might we establish a potential definition of a “normal” pick and win rate for a hero? The best way imo would be to examine the entire range of pick and win rates for all heroes and identify which most closely resemble each and eliminate any obvious outsiders (both high and low).
“Normal” Pickrate
Out of the entire range of pickrates, most heroes have pickrates within <1% difference of their nearest neighbours, both above and below. At the top end, Ana, Moira and Rein are clear outliers by this definition (Rein ~2% above Ana, and Ana ~2% above Moira, and Moira >1% above Mercy). As such, I would say its fair to excluse them as outliers.
At the bottom end, there are fewer outliers and its more spectrum. However, I would draw the cut-off line at 2% pickrate, as all the heroes below this line severely underperform when compared to other members of their class as well as being at the bottom of pickrate generally.
This excludes, in descending order: Reaper, Orisa, Hammond, Mei, Sombra, Sym, Bastion and Torb.
From this, the total range of pickrates is between 6.10 (Zarya) to 2.04% (Tracer). For simplicity’s sake, I will therefore say the normal range of pickrates for this analysis will be defined as 4+/-2%.
“Normal” Winrate
Same method. At the top end, I immediately exclude Sym and Brig, as they are both ~3% higher than their nearest neighbour (Zen), whilst below that most heroes are within a 1% of their nearest neighbour.
At the bottom end, I exclude Sombra, for the same reasons I excluded Brig and Sym: she is ~2% lower than her nearest neighbour McCree, whereas all other heroes are within 1% difference in winrate to their nearest neighbour.
This gives a range of 49.01-53.47%, difference 4.46. This makes for a median winrate of 51.24+/-2.23%, which I will be using as my definition of a normal winrate in this analysis.
So how does Symmetra stack up in all this?
As noted above, Symmetra’s pick and winrates are currently 0.97% / 56.23%.
As noted above, whilst it technically is true to say she has “improved”, this improvement is so small that her place in the meta does not seem to have changed at all since 2.0.
Her pickrate increased by 9% compared to her 2.0 all-time high from the last 6 months. However, Symmetra’s pickrate is still only 48.5% of the lowest possible value that could be considered within the “normal” range (0.97% vs 2%), and would have to increase by more than 106% its current value to be considered “normal”, at least by this definition, factors larger than the actual increase seen.
In terms of win rate, Sym currently stands 1.22% lower than her 2.0 all-time low in the last 6 months. Again, whilst this may at first glance seem significant, our “normal” winrate definition puts the highest possible “normal” winrate at 53.47%–a value that Sym currently beats by 2.76%.
So whilst Sym’s winrate has dropped, it is still significantly above the normal range of winrates, and would have to decline by double its current amount to approach a winrate that could be considered normal. In fact, the amount that Sym’s winrate woudl have to decline to appear “normal” is so great it is greater than the half the winrate range of the entire cast of “normal” winrate heroes.
Conclusion
Overall, whilst Symmetra’s stats fluctuated somewhat in the wake of the rework, the big picture seems to be no change at all to Symmetra’s place in the meta.
As she has always been during her entire comp career, Symmetra is a niche hero, for want of a better word, and it does not seem like that is likely to change in the near future (at least not when judging by the trendlines of her data anyway).
The common wisdom within the general OW community is that Sym 3.0 has been a huge success, when in reality Sym 3.0 has had no discernible impact on the meta whatsoever.
Although the community seems satisfied with the outcome of the Sym rework, Sym herself is still struggling like she always has, and I seriously doubt anything is going to change that short of some significant buffs. I’m not gonna go extensively into what buffs I think she needs, because thats not why I made this thread, tho I will say changes to the primary fire and her E ability seem to be the most commonly requested, both by Sym players and the general community.
If you stayed this long, thx for reading. I hope this provided some insight or at least interesting discussion into the state of Symmetra 3.0.