Using:
N = (W - 0.5 x P) / (1 - P)
Where P is pick rate, W is mirror-allowing win rate, and N is non-mirrored win rate.
With W=0.5373 and P=0.8838, I get:
N = (0.5373 - 0.5 x 0.8838) / (1 - 0.8838)
N = (0.5373 - 0.4419) / 0.1162
N = 0.0954 / 0.1162
N = 0.820998279 ~ 82.1%
I mean, an 82.1% win rate is so crazy that we probably shouldn’t trust the inference. But, the implied conclusion that Ana is a “must pick” is probably valid.
Your posts are so hypocritical I can’t help but laugh. Just a month ago you were calling for Mercy nerfs because “no hero should dominate the meta”. But Ana can? Ok
Why not use the calculator the poster provides?
It does this exact equation, but what you’re getting does not match the calculator.
Moira is perfect as she is. She has her niche, she does her niche very well without being obnoxious to play against, which is appropriate for her effort;reward ratio.
I actually did use the calculator… Hrm. Any chance you pasted in the pick rate as 88.38% instead of 88.38? Google Sheets does this automatic conversion of (value)% to (value)/100 but keeps the displayed value as (value)%. If so, then the pick rate line will look like:
Pick Rate 88.38% 0.008838
So the last column (probability) will end up being super tiny (0.88%), which would leave the win rate really close to the input value.
Actually, checking over the calculator, I noticed that C2 was not set to =B2/100
It was set to .51 and that’s it.
With the fixed calculator:
53.68 wr
42.67 pr
Is 56.2% in non mirror
Also ignore the 51 sitting in the wrong cell. I dragged it there by mistake
Gotcha. Yeah, I get the same thing if the correct pick rate is indeed 42.67%, which would mean only ~43% of teams run Ana at GM. I don’t have any experience to say whether Ana is in most teams (~88%) or less than half the teams at GM.
Edit: But the 6x pick rates looks reasonable down at the level I probably play at. (Eg, 60% of teams having a Rein.)
I don’t play comp, but over 70% winrate is just too crazy for this game imo. There are too many variables and that just doesn’t seem correct.
Quantitatively, it probably isn’t accurate because of things like counter picking, the underlying Overbuff data being semi-crappy, GM data being unreliable, and the correction getting overly aggressive as pick rate gets really high.
Qualitatively, it’s probably on more solid footing. Eg, Ana is necessary, Zen is great, Mercy needs help, Brig isn’t a terror, etc.
I like that people are using data to draw conclusions. And I understand Overbuff is the best source people have. But, I’d like to see less blind faith in the numbers and overreach on conclusions. It’s certainly not useless data, but it’s not really honest data either.
What Bliz needs to do is release the info they see. Obviously as secs they can access averages without worrying about privacy (almost all games grab gameplay data like this, privacy is only for the public).
They need to show their hand and not rarely tell us “btw this map is pretty balanced. Here’s data you can’t see”
Ok another note:
I’m also curious how many Mercy players stay private because of toxicity?
Dunno. My intuition is that private profiles probably don’t make much difference at lower ranks where sample sizes are decent. But GM? Questionable. But, they could certainly just provide full de-identified (anonymized) data through their API somehow, instead of just summary statistics.
And map data would be awesome.
P.S.
We can adjust the formula to try to account for some of the other weirdness in Overbuff’s data. Specifically, we can set the expected mirror-match win rate higher, because win rates in GM are all above 50% (which they shouldn’t be, if properly counted). I’d have to think about it harder to come up with a good value, but if we use 53% (the average reported value for supports) we get:
| Hero | Pick Rate | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Ana | 88.4% | 59.3% |
| Lucio | 36.8% | 51.7% |
| Brigitte | 33.7% | 54.9% |
| Zenyatta | 30.4% | 58.2% |
| Moira | 7.9% | 51.6% |
| Mercy | 7.3% | 50.3% |
Which, I think are more reasonable numbers. It does have a different interpretation though. Specifically, that Lucio needs buffs as well.
Conveniently, I happen to think Lucio needs buffs, so there’s that. ![:slight_smile:](https://d74zh8edaijub.cloudfront.net/en/overwatch/images/emoji/twitter/slight_smile.png?v=5" ":slight_smile:")
This seems more reasonable to me.
Wish I checked if the calculator was in working order instead of ending up only using 51 winrate for every calculation and getting severely confused.
Moira needs Fade to be 5 seconds and not 6 seconds.
Lol. Well, sadly, Paragon died along with all the infrastructure surrounding it. Can’t be helped.
(Kinda funny to see all the PS4/PC cross-play chat lately, given that Paragon had that, like, 3 years ago…)
Honestly, I’ve never even heard of that game until this calculator. Of course I don’t really play lol like games. Or at least lol didn’t let me enjoy their game by forcing me to play the ice giant all the time…
The doc warning me about the calculator being in the trash should have made me take more care though.
I think moira would benefit giving back her ability to heal through barriers to compensate her lack of utility.
As for mercy… screw cd rez /shrug
Remember when every one was yelling about Moira being OP? I miss those days.
It was fun. It had a rough beta though and it didn’t make it release (FortNite BR exploded and Epic had to move all the staff to it).
Ugh. LoL. Dislike. Heroes of the Storm is a good game though. It’s just, most days I hate click-to-move more than I like HotS…
The way I see it is that Ana is finally an option, where else if you didn’t play Mercy or Moira, you were basically throwing before the changes. Now Ana can be played, and Mercy can too. Ana is just the flavour of the month because it’s a breath of fresh air that other supports can be used now.
Ana isn’t ‘finally an option’. Ana is THE ONLY option.
You cannot go into a high tier match without Ana and NOT be at an automatic disadvantage.
Her pickrate in GM floats daily around 85% to somewhere in the 90th percentile. That’s pretty much a must-pick and means your supports are throwing if they choose Moira or Mercy before an Ana is selected.
And no, Mercy cannot be played at GM besides a very niche pick. Anyone that tries deranks fast. Mercy’s best and most dedicated players are now being forced to play Ana, Brig and Zen.