How does private versus public have no inherent discrepancy when you have to go out of your way to hide them and certain demographics (such as Mercy mains, off-meta, and one-tricks) use them? That is objectively a discrepancy. You could argue that the differences are negligible, I suppose; however, in a community where a hero with a 49% win-rate is underpowered and a 51% win-rate hero is “overtuned.” I believe it is fairly obvious that negligible differences do matter. This is not an opinion poll or whatever. These are performance stats. There IS a difference.
The fact of the matter is that Overbuff is not reliable, it never was either, and that is evidenced by developers using their own stats. If your argument were true, it would not realistically matter and we would not see the discrepancies that we do see.
In other words, it is really ironic that you are questioning other people’s competence.
Win rates don’t matter and pickrates don’t matter, but they do matter together.
For example, a hero that is picked basically all time 16.6% (2 in almost every game) having a 51% winrate means they are always beating teams that don’t have that hero.
You might want to take a more thorough look at Overbuff. It looks like you came to your conclusion and grabbed the data set and assumptions that agreed with you most strongly.
For this week Mercy on PC has:
GM: 4th lowest winrate of all heros and lowest support.
Masters: Lowest winrate of all heros.
Diamond: 4th lowest winrate of all heros and lowest support.
Platinum: 6th lowest winrate of all heros and lowest support.
Gold: 6th lowest winrate of all heros and lowest support.
Silver: 10th lowest winrate of all heros and 2nd lowest support.
Bronze: 10th lowest winrate of all heros and 2nd lowest support.
That’s below average results across the board on PC.
At some ranks she does break 50% but, if you look at those ranks you’ll notice that most other heros do as well. At higher ranks players tend to play more matches against lower ranked players and tend to have a higher winrate because of that among other factors. The reverse is true for lower ranks.
Only three heros in Bronze have winrates above 50% and that only two heros in Grand Master are below 50% for the week on PC.
Mercy’s winrate is either 5th or 6th of the Supports at every level. In Bronze and Silver Ana is bottom of the 6, as expected of a high skill hero, but otherwise the moth takes it every time.
At her highest pickrate in comparison to the supports + Sym (who is still in the Support list on Overbuff), Brig still only makes it up to 13%. This stat, in spite of her universally high winrate, backs up the commonly held belief she is a counter pick.
Mercy’s GM winrate has improved since I last looked (at which point it was in the 50% range), but is still very low for the rank. The average GM winrate is 54-55%, and you cam count on one hand the number of times a hero has dropped below 50% in the last 12 months.
Ana slopes up massively in both stats as you go up the ranks. This reflects her being the strongest main healer at this point, if you can aim
Moira does not excel at any stat in any rank. Goats isn’t even the go to Moira comp anymore, with Ana replacing Moira instead.
I took this weeks stats because they are the most recent there are. Your approach is more of a discussing of a class half full or half empty. For example you say that in GM she has the 4th lowest winrate, but is that a bad thing if she’s still above 50% WR?
In Masters she does have the lowest WR but she’s not that far away from McCree not to mention that her winrate is 49.11%. It’s not even a 1% off from 50%
Well I can see you’re wanting to start an argument, and I don’t really want to waste time arguing with someone that’s going to say that pointing out attempts to mislead people is an attack on their character.
I tend to default to this month stats. It’s small enough that you’re rarely covering more than 2 patches (current and previous), but large enough that any outliers are eliminated. When I mentioned the lack of sub-50% GM heroes in the last 12 months it was on monthly stats; Hanzo before he got buffed, and Reaper, Torb and Bastion immediately afterwards
The win rate you should be comparing to is not 50%, but the average win rate in the tier you’re presenting. You need to be close to that average win rate in order to stay in the tier, and if you’re below it then you’re losing SR.
In GM, where Mercy’s win rate was 50.77%, the average win rate is about 54.3%. That’s far enough below the average so that If you’re playing Mercy in GM then you’re throwing. Moira’s win rate this week is a bit of an outlier in GM. She’s usually at about 52.5. No other healer has a problem this big there.
In Master, the average win rate is 52.5. Again, no other healer is even close to being as far as Mercy from the average win rate. In diamond the average win rate is about 51.5%.
A difference of 3-4% from the average win rate is huge. The spread of all win rates is about 6-7%. 3-4% is worse than the situation Ana was in prior to the changes. It’s the worst situation a support has been in in higher ranks in the past 6 months (that’s the depth of the Overbuff database).
I recently posted 2 posts about this. One giving the weekly averages (both win and pick rate) for Mercy since her nerf in ranks diamond-gm and the other explaining the statistical levels of confidence we have in that data. I’m linking these in case anyone’s interested.
To those claiming that private profiles are correlated with skill, and thus the Overbuff stats are skewed: The introduction of private profiles did not introduce any statistically significant long term changes in win or pick rates for any of the characters I checked (I say long term because in the first few days most characters saw a small bump).
while i agree with you, i have to ask you, what the hell is your problem? Where are your manners? how do you function in real world, you’re taking such an aggressive stance over something you’re so knowledgeable of (supposedly)… Calm down.
