It says Ana is 14% pick rate, but I see her every game. Literally every game. 14% means a team will pick it every 7th game, but it doesn’t happen. There’s always Ana. Always…
P.S it disturbs me how bad people are at math. Like people legit like and agree with the post that shows 96% pick rate on ana and mercy, which would mean that no other support is ever being picked. It really is so hilarious how bad people are at numbers, holy molly…
I mean, they’ve been off ever since profiles were made private by default.
Only made worse with a flood of new people in OW2 that don’t even know about the option.
Overbuff hasn’t been reliable in years. Nothing new.
I believe the way it’s calculated is that if Ana has a 14% pickrate it means each player on a team has a 14% chance of picking Ana.
So 14% x 5 = 70%
16% x 6 = 96%
Just because you don’t understand how it works, doesn’t mean that it’s wrong…
If anything it actually means it’s absolutely correct based on the math the other guy did this is exactly how common she is XD.
Yeah I said it’s per team.
Just because you can’t read, doesn’t mean I am wrong.
And btw, there are 2 supports in a team, not 5.
He did not.
I mean hay in this instance overbuff would prove your point that ana is picked a lot and op soooooo if you wanna fight against the thing that’s is actually giving you credibility then hay go off, personally it wouldn’t be a strategy I would use to fight the advanced stat tracker machine thing thats agreeing with me but to each there own.
There are 2 supports each game, and the amount of ana being picked by 4 supports is 14%.
If you add up the pickrate of all supports, you will get around 40%, same with DPS and for tanks, you’d get 20%.
So Ana having a 14% pickrate means that she is picked 14 times out of 40 times.
This translates to there being a 35% chance of Ana being on either team, leading to her being in most games.
You can’t add the pickrate, that’s not how math works…
Also, your personal experience wouldn’t disprove anything in the first place either lol.
personal anecdotes don’t prove or disprove anything.
What are you talking about? Of course you can.
You can add the pickrate of different heroes.
If Widow and Hanzo have a 5% pickrate each, then the sniper class has a 10% pickrate…
Idk what makes you think that you can’t add pickrates together
People discredit over buff because it’s usually not convient to them or the argument there trying to make… It’s not as transparent as people want it to be… But like when you actually look at the data and what blizzard says… It always lines up…
For example right they nerfed rein and sigma last season (or maybe before that) because they were “Over performing” and I was like no way then I go to overbuff… Oh… That’s why they nerfed them…
THAT’S NOT HOW MATH WORKS, PROBABILITY CANT BE ADDED XD
There’s a 5% chance that I will die, there’s 5% chance that John will die, it doesn’t mean that we have 10% chance to die. Each of us have 5% chance to die individually, you can’t add it xDDD
You don’t understand what percentages exemplify in overbuff.
Right now max theoretical chance is 20%, which would mean one person out of 5 picked that hero every match. Overbuff percentage exemplifies the chance of a player selecting that hero, with the role not taken into account. A 14% translates to a 70% chance of ana appearing in a team, and a theoretical max mirror chance of 35%
So ana has 8.92% pickrate which should be the chance of nearly 45% of appearing in a team in any given ranked match, lesser chance of being in both teams to a theoretical maximum of 22.5% max mirror chance (if every match she appears was mirrored)
If you sum all the pickrates of support players, which conform 40% of a team, you get nearly 37%. That margin of error happens because overwatch has a usage per 10 minutes metric.
Overbuff is invalid simply because profiles now are private by default. You’re not getting even close to the full view of the playerbase, it’s incomplete data. And no, you can’t argue it’s a subset because it’s not an diverse selection, it’s only the people who really cared enough to willingly find and make their profiles public because they’re proud, ashamed etc. and whatever. The greater playerbase absolutely does not care.
You don’t need all of the statistics to have a reasonably accurate sample. It’s possible there is a selection bias for overbuff, but that has never shown to be true when the developers have released stats or explained the reasoning for their decisions. It always is very close to what Overbuff has stated. So, there’s not really a good reason to say it’s not accurate.
THERE ARE TWO SUPPORTS IN A TEAM, STAHP…
The devs stats actually have the entire population of the current game, like I said Overbuff has a small portion of people who really care about public profiles and also old and invalid data (I even checked mine a while back and lmao).
It’s not just an incomplete data it’s also polluted and not really relevant for any buff or balancing analysis.
Seems pretty accurate but 2-3 stats seems odd to me, like orisa winrate is very low and brigitte very high but who knows
I don’t see how he could explain that to you any better.
It doesn’t work how you want it to work, or how you say it works.
It doesn’t take roles into account, as he said.
Statistics DO work that way. Your example is not a valid example as the two events are not necessarily related. Here’s a better one:
If you fight a lion the following outcomes are possible:
You will be mauled to death: 45%
The lion will bite your neck, causing you to bleed to death: 32%
The force from the lion’s pounce will kill you: 19%
You will kill the lion and survive: 4%
Your chances of dying to the lion are 96%, because there are 3 ways the lion could kill you totalling 96%.
Technically, this is a gross oversimplification and both of our examples are probability, not statistics, but that’s not the point.