Pharah + Math = don't break your brain

Competitive Discussion
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https://playoverwatch.com/en-us/career/pc/Fareeha-1186
https://playoverwatch.com/en-us/career/pc/Valkia-2299

% Direct Hits on 2 of the best pharah players around are ~20 percent.

So that means 1 out of 5 hits are direct

Their average highest potential damage is around 88 per shot with the 100% hits of old splash.

New splash of 65 it is 76.

A relative reduction of 16 percent. 88 to 76

With the increase rate of fire of 20%. 0.9 to 0.75

Total damage has almost no change over time, provided that the direct hit accuracy stays the same and you are fully taking advantage of the increased fire rate.

The burst damage as already mentioned if on average only 1 hit is direct out of 5, there is a lot of lost up front damage that we had with pharah.

If a 200 hp hero could be killed in 2 shots, 120 + 80 before, but now takes at least 3, and since the person could be healed between shots, there’s a chance it will take 4 or you may not even kill the hero.

Assuming, direct hits go up with pharah play style changes (flank/short range), it could be a buff provided that survivability is unchanged or better in the new role.

TLDR: the best pharah players average 20 to 25 percent direct hit rate. With this information, we can extrapolate that the damage appears to be wash in regards to damage over time average. It shows a significant loss of burst potential to break points that traditionally would kill a 200 hp hero.

Edit: found this thread in general - similar deduction:

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no all it does is showing that randomly spamming chokepoints with Pharah is not as effective as it used to be

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Actually Bioshyn, this takes into account direct hit percentage. So it does.

The only issue with the data set is that it’s late in the season, so the direct hits are with prior play style.

Next season it will be more accurate as pharahs change their playstyle.

Keep also in mind that tight groups of enemies will give significantly less damage from splash, which made ult generation an possible problem as well in some of the videos done by valkia.

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actually no, the splash dps is the same as before patch thanks to the attack speed buff

edit: the only thing that really changed is the dmg breakpoints so it’s easier to heal up

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Bioshyn, this is about burst damage and opportunity.

Have the same damage over time is the same as burst.

For example.

damage in old system seconds: splash
1 second - 80 (0.9s)
2 seconds - 160 (1.8s)
3 seconds - 240 (2.7s)
4 seconds - 320 (3.6s)
5 seconds - 400 (4.5s)
6 seconds - 480 (5.4s)

new
1 seconds - 65 (0.75s)
2 seconds - 130 (1.5s)
3 seconds - 260 (3.0s)
4 seconds - 315 (3.75s)
5 seconds - 380 (4.5s)
reload x 1 second
6 seconds - 445 (5.5s)

The break point for splash is at 3 seconds for the new system or equal. Up to that, it’s the old system that benefits.

Your team capitalizes off of low players or “1” (heroes 1 shot from being killed health less than 80 generally speaking). Most heals of the except for brig are trickles in over time, this makes a big difference. Likely to have less opportunity with the lower splash and dynamic play seen in the higher ranks.

Taking 4 shots at your targets to hit the breakpoint - highly unlikely you’ll kill your opponent unless it’s a duel and you’re winning (lol).

Edit: I just saw your edit about the easier to heal up - EXACTLY.