Hey all, Arena25, OWL aficionado and scientist-in-training here to drop some scenarios and math related to the OWL here, for those who happen to care (and hey, not everyone is an OWL fan, and that’s perfectly ok with me). Here’s some preliminary analysis I did, starting with the dominant NYXL:
NYXL
The NYXL clinch a Top 2 spot WITH:
Win vs. Shock OR
Loss vs. Shock + Atlanta Loss + Paris Loss
NYXL clinch the 1 seed WITH:
Win vs. Shock + Beats Vancouver in Map Differential Tiebreaker
Loss vs. Shock + Vancouver Loss + Beats Vancouver in Map Differential Tiebreaker
Atlanta
Atlanta clinches a Top 2 spot WITH:
Wins in all remaining matches + NYXL Loss vs. Shock*
Atlanta clinches 1 seed WITH:
Wins in all remaining matches + NYXL Loss vs. Shock + Vancouver Loss + Beats Vancouver In Tiebreaker Map Differential
*Why does Atlanta clinch a Top 2 spot if NYXL loses to Shock and they win all three remaining matches? Well, let’s first imagine the NYXL have a bad day and lose in a 3-2 OT loss to the Shock (it’s unlikely, given how dominant the NYXL have been this stage but have an imagination). That would put the NYXL, who before this week have a +12 map differential, at a +11 map differential. This means that if Atlanta wins all three remaining matches (even if all three went to a fifth map OT), Atlanta, who before this week has a +9 map differential, would have at least a +12 map differential and would therefore beat the NYXL via map differential and thus claim a Top 2 spot (since the 1 and 2 seeds are given to the Stage Champion in both the Atlantic and Pacific divisions).
Vancouver
Vancouver clinches a Top 2 spot WITH:
Wins at least 2 out of 3 matches
Vancouver clinches the 1 seed WITH:
Wins in all three matches + NYXL Loss
Wins in all three matches + Beat NYXL in map differential OR
Win at least 2 out of 3 matches + NYXL Loss + Beat NYXL AND Atlanta In Tiebreaker Map Differential
And that’s about all I got for now. Have fun, friends. Enjoy your Tuesday!