Mystery Heroes needs to be made random again

General Discussion
1

This 2+ heroes on the same team thing isn’t random at all. The chances of 2+ of getting the same hero multiple times is too small for it to actually be random

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2

When’s the last time you took a statistics class?

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3

Are you really saying random has the giant chance the devs have given it that you can constantly get 2+ of the same hero? I could write a basic program and never get the same 2 numbers

4

then it isnt a mystery, once a player gets that hero, they know no one else on that team will get them

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5

I’m not saying make it impossible to get the same heroes, I’m saying it needs to be near impossible with actual randomness

6

but what makes it random is that there is an equal chance for anything to happen

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7

Have you heard of the birthday paradox?

In a room with just 23 people the chances of two people sharing a birthday are 50%.

75 people brings those odds to 99.9%.

Odds don’t work the way you think they do.

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8

huh…interesting…i would like to know the math behind that

9

I don’t think every hero has an equal chance. There’s pretty good evidence that there’s something is in the code that brings certain heroes out more

Great. Do the math on the odds for 2-6 people to get the same thing out of 29 different things (also computers don’t use odds they have a specific thing they use for random and the devs had to add more to it)

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10

the only way to know for true is to run many many tests, like over 100 matches

11

That’s even more likely than the same birthday- there are 29 heroes and 365 days

12

Sorry but when out of 5 matches I see one team get 3 bastions or even 4 Brigs and two Rein’s I am calling it out on its pick-rate

13

when it comes to probability, 5 matches is a drop in the bucket

14

I play to get everything loaded in so I have a lot of matches and it’s pretty clear it’s not actually random

It’s not for the birthday thing. 2-6 out of 29 has different stats

5 matches might not be a lot, but that’s actually super common

15

If we are using small samples sizes the only time we had double heroes in my last mystery game on either side was when we had two mercy’s at the end

16

if you want to see true probability you need a very large sample size…like…10k matches

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17

One game is a little too small

Wonder who has those stats…if only we could see them too…

18

But that’d require a bunch of recording data from a concerted effort and large group of players.

What is an acceptable size becuase for a real representative test of the randomness you’d need like the 10K games if not more Suntset suggested

19

yes it would, but anything involving probability always does, the chance of a coin landing heads or tails? flip it 10K times and record it all, probablity isnt random at that many attempts

20

With only 2-6 people it’s pretty high. Far from “impossible”.

1 Like