Kinda. It’s good enough for pickrate.
But Winrate has never been useful on Overbuff, at any point in time in the last 8 years.
She’s not.
I can cite you 2 different instances where Blizzard called out the playerbase BS on Kiriko being too powerful. These were 2 years apart too.
First
S12 on August 20th patch notes, Juno’s release.
Second
They even did a Seagull interview during S2-3 where they showed that despite having a 60% WR in Master+, Kiriko had a 46% WR.
Kiri Master+ Usage 70 → 60% Usage
Kiri Master+ WR 46 → 44%
This last one is hilarious because its a perfect example of player bandwagoning a hero and not getting results. Sure enough Season 4-5 saw far less Kiriko after players learned she wasn’t that great.
Overbuff has been following the Juno trend insanely well since S12 where she’s had not only a super high pickrate everywhere, but a very high win rate. Overbuff has been following the Kiriko trned very well too. Poor WR, but high pick rate.
Two vastly different heroes and how the community treats heroes with ‘honest’ mechanics’ versus those they feel are ‘unhonest’ mechanics.
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I’d argue that they shouldn’t even be trying to make heroes equal at high ELO.
And instead just ask the most relevant content creators what they want, and do some gutchecks, and just figure out what the “current ideal tierlist order for high ELO” is. Then just build that. Based on pickrate.
Then otherwise just make sure the strongest picks aren’t “crazy strong”, just merely “overtuned”.
What Blizzard has been doing is that they are buffing heroes that need it. Nerfing heroes that don’t.
Then, throwing in buff/nerfs for heroes that the community dislikes. Hog got gutted in season 2 and it took him a very long time to recover. In the very same video when Roadhog was very strong early Season 2, Blizzard gutted him on his hook power without any compensation and you can see his Master+ WR tank from 49% all the way down to 41%.
The problem is how they measure “need it”, which appears to be based on Winrate.
And they shouldn’t be using winrate to balance heroes. At all.
Because they aren’t even using Winrate, they are using “Time Weighted Winrate”, while ignoring the Time part.
It’s why Symmetra has had a high Winrate these last 8 years.
It’s why Orisa swapped from about a 62% winrate, to a 34% winrate overnight between OW1 and OW2.
It’s why they keep randomly buffing Orisa, Mauga and Hog.
Why they’ve struggled balancing Sojourn, Widow, Hanzo, Sombra, Roadhog, Mauga, Orisa, Kiriko, Ana, etc
Unmirrored WR is a very successful measurement of hero’s relative power to the others in the same role. Its hard to measure say DPS vs support, but if a character has too high of a WR or LR its exceedingly noticeable relative to the others.
Pick rate is a rather poor metric beyond popularity. Which can be for numerous reasons that are not performance related. It does tend to go hand in hand with doing well, but its also just feel of play. Overall interest in a hero and many other things.
Alec has gone on record saying with Twitter in teh past that Orisa has been struggling to win games. Orisa is the case of a hero the community hates, but isn’t doing exceedingly well for it. They keep trying to buff Orisa to that ~45% WR, but anytime that happens Orisa is the communities fallback to situations.
Alec has even said with the interview with I think Emongg where his biggest surprised has been player perception. “You really think that character is any good?!?”
I’m saying the math Alec is using sucks.
And that even if it was correct, he shouldn’t be using it.
And that he’s basically trying to apply HearthStone game design, to Overwatch. With catastrophic results.
The math behind stomps and why they happen - #51 by GreyFalcon-11737
The way he’s using winrate, is with the assumption both teams get identical amount of time on Attack and Defense.
Which is very False.
https://i.imgur.com/4ksBvjS.png
OW2 has been very successful. There are wrenches thrown into the mix every so often that take awhile to shake out primarily because of new hero releases. The big problem I’d say overall is having new hero releases be stronger than they should be for too long.
Mauga was allowed to stay powerful for awhile. They have avoided the fall out of being too weak like LW. Illari was meta defining for 2 seasons. Mauga was for 2 seasons. Juno has been meta defining for her release as well.
Venture has actually been nerfed repeatedly since launch, but is still a strong hero the community doesn’t play. Though despite not being a meta defining hero. Part of this I think has been not because of balance, but because or marketing requirements. Keep a hero tuned, new, and keep interest in the game.
Avoid the ‘pay2win’ feel, but keep something new that people want to try out and talk about. Instead of being lamented like LW release.
Ok.
-
- Do both teams get identical amounts of time on Attack and Defense?
https://i.imgur.com/4ksBvjS.png
-
- Does HearthStone use Winrate, or Time-Weighted-Winrate for cards?
-
- Is it appropriate to treat Time-Weighted-Winrate, to have the same identical meaning as Winrate?
And I should also note
-
- Does Overbuff assume both teams get identical amounts of time on Attack and Defense?
Because as far as I can tell, the devs appear to be using the same identical method as Overbuff. Except without the mirror matches. Which just makes the bad data… spikier. So usually high winrates are higher and low winrates are lower.
But if the Math is wrong,
Then the Number Results don’t matter.
Hog has been brought back to viability waaaaaayyy sooner than kiri.
Even soj has been getting buffs.
The have left kiri in the dumpster for too long
Kiriko hasn’t been completely dumpstered. She’s still good. The problem is that contrary to most people’s opinions Kiriko does actually take some level of skill to play well. Its in the same vein as most supports.
People overvalue the power in her kit. TP/Suzu are honestly not too different from many support abilities in the game. Suzu will get used for mundane uses like just healing for long cooldowns. They stick out as more annoying to fight against. As Mercy has shown, keeping players alive and pumped with healing and being hard to pin down doesn’t make you are great support. Its honestly just a pretty typical average support thing to do.
What makes Kiriko good is when you do damage with her which is a high value skill especially when you see its literally the same size, speed as Zenyatta. Your value is landing headshots not bodyshots.
Gate is often over estimated as an ability since while decent in vanilla is still very easily shutdown by many common ultimates or often just disengaged completely by staying out of LoS.
She will remain dumpstered until Blizz decides they need to sell more Kiri skins.
Proof is in the pudding. People love kiri…. Hence why they buy kiri skins….
So why dumpster her for so long…
Not even hog stayed in the gutter for this long….
They must truly be on a Trend of appeasing streamers instead of their player base.
The average gamer has been forgotten
It’s called random sampling, and you’d be surprised with how little people need to participate to get surprisingly accurate results (a small single digit % is all you need quite often)
I’ll readily acknowledge that overbuff has had its fair share of hiccups and bugs at times causing issues, but even the developers themselves have acknowledged how accurate overbuff is overall.
Of course it’s be unwise to take overbuff as an exact “well this hero has a 47.7% win rate!”
However
It’s great for monitoring trends and predicting decisions. It’s also highly unlikely a hero with a 45% win rate “ackshully” has say a 60% win rate. Or even 55. Or even 50.
Likewise a hero at the top of the pick rate charts is very unlikely to be anything but the most picked hero in actuality.
Overbuff is a great source when used properly
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So thats not a kiriko problem. Kiriko is not weak. This is a player problem. Kiriko is a hero defined by how you play her when you play her and mechanical skill. 90% off the playerbase doesnt have the skillset required to play her optimally. Thats why her wr is awfull. Its a player problem(as it should be)
What happens if a hero that perform great in the right hands gets buffed to perform like that in the wrong hands? She starts overperforming.
Also the avarage gamer should love to improve at the hero. Thats what overwatch is all about.
Exactly now i wont be out here saying that kiri’s floor is extremely high but her ceiling is. To get the most out of kiri requires an extreme amount of mechanical skill position teamplay and gamesense. Untill you have that she wont carry matches just by existing.
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they wont buff kiri due to her bad winrate bc that means theyd have to buff cree for his abysmal winrate
MORE of you support mains gotta hold eachother accountable man lmfao. You enjoy dunking on dumb Genji mains asking for buffs while we got people that legit think Kiriko is bad.
Insane.
Overbuff keeps using old data. It’s been busted since July/August.
Kiri isn’t in the dumpster…
I do agree though the only reasons her cool downs were made longer for swift step and Suzu was just to shut the 1% of high ranked players up complaining about it.
While I don’t know the stats, the Devs did say in a dev comment that her abilities do not have the power to win games by themselves. Again, no idea what the actual stats are, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility that her winrate isn’t great.
How can she stay something she has NEVER been.