If you have played 1000 games and are still worse than the average player

[Kaawumba-1133]

Your theory is sensible, but it is not consistent with the system as implemented, in a few key ways.

@Billgatez-11862

SR(t) = SR(t-1) ± 25 + a * [MMR(t) - SR(t)]
where a is the mean reverting parameter

• The bigger the difference between MMR and SR, the bigger the adjustment
• When your SR = MMR, you win or lose your usual 25 SR per game
• When SR < MMR, you win/lose your usual 25 SR + some bonus (catch-up)
• When SR > MMR, you win/lose your usual 25 SR - some penalty (catch-up)

This is probably approximately correct, though Blizzard has never given this level of detail.

@Billgatez-11862

But if you win (or lose) a few games in a row, then your MMR progressively increases (or decreases) faster (say ± 30, 40, 50, 75, 100, etc.) This is due to MMR’s volatility inscreasing (or decreasing) as it registers you are on a win (or loss) streak.

There used to be win streaks bonuses/loss streak penalties, but they were removed because they tended to throw people far from their proper rank, through random chance alone (Overwatch Forums).

@Billgatez-11862

your MMR varies a little bit faster than your SR

Indirect evidence suggests that MMR moves slower than SR.

1. Since SR chases MMR, that implies that MMR moves slower (otherwise SR would have a very hard time catching MMR).
2. During placements, the average movement per game is +/- 19 SR. I suspect that this is actually the average motion of MMR. See How Competitive Skill Rating Works (Season 11) → Season Transitions, last paragraph.
3. If SR is well above MMR because a player has won many more games than he’s lost, less SR than MMR will be gained on a win, and more SR than MMR will be lost on a loss. This is an SR debuff. At high win percentage, a player can gain up to 6 SR less on a win than he loses on a loss.(Overwatch Forums).