If a hero wins a lot, but is picked infrequently, should they get a buff or a nerf?

this is a rhetorical question

when we talk about balance, we talk about win rate, not popularity

popularity can have multiple influences (above and beyond simple win rate,) but winning only has one influence and that’s balance

so when someone says, “hero balance” a layman will think win rate, because why is someone talking about the popularity of the hero and using the word balance? Why wouldn’t they just say “popular?”

EDIT: so yeah, if everyone is picking Bastion on first point Numbani but never attacking hanamua, his win rate will be distorted as if he was playing all maps equally, so long as the player base knows his bastion’s win tendencies

all Competitive games should have their stats displayed in client. like it’s the sports section of the newspaper

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The fact that they are picked infrequently is the reason why they have that win rate. If they were picked more, the win rate would go down.

So they deserve to be buffed more than nerfed, imo. Or maybe even just left alone.

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I almost agreed with this.

If the win rate is high and the pick rate is low - leave it. They’re in a good spot - surprisingly. It’s when the pickrate and win rate is both low/high that it should be altered. As to what extent - idk. I’m not the ow team - but they tend to focus more on how a character feels to have in the game or play rather than how balanced it is within the meta.

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Small QoL changes are ok but big buffs I’m less ok with. Part of why Sym and Torb have high winrates is because people never play them so when they come up against an experiences Torb/Sym player they don’t know what to do. This is especially true in lower ranks but in high ranks you see they are dealt with more effectively. But also they’re picked so little because they are not that effective for most players. So it’s tough.

that really depends on the hero and the reasons why their winrate is high. if their winrate is high because only a diehard expert still uses it, that’s an entirely different problem than what you’re implying. learning to interpret statistics is important, stats are a jumping off point and not the end of the inquiry.

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Not only that, it’s more that these heroes are picked when they are strong, like Bastion Numbani first point defense

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Reminds me of sym 2.0, or how I only play Wrecking Ball for temple of Anubis point A and maybe 1 push of point B before switching off to a better tank for the situation.

this is incorrect

a change in pick rate will not change win rate. I don’t know how you came to this conclusion, but I am listening if you care to explain.

That’s another good point. Map specificity as to the win rate is also important. Is it all 2CP maps that they get played on? Do you need to play control for them to get value? Is it a bastion just getting better wins because the team works together when cheesing it?

But is the hero good or the person playing the hero good

I think that’d be pretty easy to see if ALL Gold/Plat/Diamond players were getting upwards of 70% with one hero and closer to a balance of 50% with most others.

yes good point, it is a disservice not to publicize map win rates across all heros across all ranks

no one plays sports free of the press

NA, thats called a niche hero, like bastion.

On junker town bastion usually wins, on kings row he doesn’t get picked, hes strong in his niche but sucks otherwise, so he gets a rework to be less niche and becomes just normal bad.

Yea and due to if people are accurately placed haven over a 50percent win rate on one specific hero isnt common if you got that and you played alot if that hero you hsvent reached your skill level yet

Sombra has always had a pretty bad winrate but I’d like to see it broken down by map too. I’m betting her winrate on certain 2CP maps would surprise a lot of people.

That’s a good indication that the hero needs a rework.

I have 100% winrate on Torb because I picked them for 3 minutes ONCE during a season and won the match with him…Does this mean he needs nerfs or buffs?

Well it won’t be that black and white but a higher pick rate means a bigger sample size.

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and the ratio of pick rate to win rate becomes exponentially smaller the more that pick rate goes up

the pick rate is not so small that it skews the win rate terribly, it will change it but not by much

Yeah.

For example - I don’t think anyone’s really worried about Ash right now - low PR/high WR in higher ranks - but people are looking at Moira/Brig as being maybe a little too good at doing whatever it is they’re doing - because they’re so consistently valuable at every rank right now.