Win probability changes slowly with rank because there are so many random factors in each individual match. Unfortunately, it follows from this that frequent and long streaks will occur, and a player’s rank will oscillate widely. Essentially, a player will tend to bounce between the range of where he is nearly guaranteed to win and where he is nearly guaranteed to lose. The range varies from player to player, but +/- 250 SR/MMR is common and +/- 500 is possible. This problem can be analyzed in depth, mathematically (See Overwatch Forums).
This has nothing to do with Overwatch’s MMR. Any Elo/ladder type system will have this sort of behavior. The only thing that varies is how much the rating bounces around 50% for any particular player and game.
To explain how absolutely normal and common this is, I’d like to link to a tweet from Josh Menke, who used to work in matchmaking and ranking for Blizzard, though I don’t think for OW.
It’s a picture of a sock. With very swingy “graphs” on them. (I think it’s just some random sock design.)
He makes a joke about wearing his “skill graphs” on his feet.
The experts, the guy who has a Ph.D. and has designed and worked with many of these systems for Blizzard and other companies, understands quite well that oscillations are inevitable in these systems. So well that he sees them in socks.
It’s normal. Not even normal, inevitable. There’s no known way to make it not look like that.
Rather than studying the system trying to figure out how to “game” it. Or find a reason to blame it for your shortcomings. Study the game get better and climb.
I think at this point we can safely assume that there is another factor regarding sr gains when it comes to grouping, not just the win probability.
That is the individuals distance from the group/match rating.
I am farly confident, that if MMR is not dragging slowly behind SR, there is a penalty for grouping up with people lower in rank from you and further an advantage in grouping higher then you.
I detailed a thread that I know you’ve read. It details my drastic drop once the lfg system came into being. But my win rate was stable. I would group up with people lower then me and lose. My SR being higher then the group rating, I was penalized for both my wins losses at a greater rate then my team.
Furthermore, when playing and winning against people higher rank then myself, I would get higher gains and lower losses then when solo q depending on how far away from the group rating.
There is a group penalty. But the devs talked around it in their post as to encourage people to group up with the LFG. It isn’t that the matchmaker put you against tougher opponants… it is that the SR variable is manipulated depending on how far away from the group/match SR is.
I’ve been seriously thinking about doing that… just when it comes to playing I don’t bother with it. Just too much work or I forget about it.
I’ve had several games in the past where my SR and my group rating in even solo q is a good 50-70sr off. It doesn’t happen regularly… but often when my SR was higher i would frequently get games that the group rating was lower then my current SR… and rarely get games where I am grouped above my SR.
For example… when I was 2505, I still got in group games where the group SR was 2419. (extreme example) and this is playing during prime time in my region. But I would never get matched up in a 2570 game.
Hello, Kaawumba.
Here’s my gameplay data from season 12: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TBdpG3ahtD31QZ0Xn6HMygxruuIM1285n2cHCNHsNwg/edit?usp=sharing
Feel free to use it, as usual.
I’m not sure, thou, whether it is interesting in any way. Season 12, same BS - games are one-sided, PBSR works in strange ways, Silver-Platinum duos are spoiling the elo.
There is one thing, that I haven’t figured out in season 11 - I am placed in games, where my team SR and/or enemy team SR is less, than my current SR. I don’t know how to interpret that, however.
EDIT
I’ve checked season 11 - same thing. I am more often placed into games with average teams SR less, than mine. Speaking of elo hell…
I’m sorry for the slow response. Fall is a busy time for me. I added your new data to my analysis, but the plots aren’t different enough to repost.
In season 11 / silver, the average Team SR - Enemy SR is -.246 +/- 0.812
In season 12 / gold, the average Team SR - Enemy SR is 1.15 +/- 1.37
These numbers are quite small, and not statistically significant, and should be the dominant measurable effect on whether you are expected in win or lose.
In season 11 / silver, your SR - average team SR is 2.15 +/- 1.54.
In season 12 / gold, you SR - average team SR is 8.00 +/- 2.33.
Supposedly the second number is statistically significant, but I suspect that it is a fluke and will go away with more data. However, it shouldn’t affect your overall win/loss percentage if you tend to be the highest ranked person on your team, as long as the teams are fair.
Thank you for reply.
I certainly will provide more data, if I have the opportunity (I wish there were more contributors…), I don’t play at all at the moment and will probably skip the rest of the season.
I also wonder. When I look at eliminations, deaths, K/D graphs, I notice that zigzag “pattern”, going up and down, alternating every other game. There are some pretty significant exceptions, but towards the right the “pattern” becomes more observable. What I wonder is - what could be the probable cause? I mean, I know the randomness and such, but still?
Win probability changes slowly with rank because there are so many random factors in each individual match. Unfortunately, it follows from this that frequent and long streaks will occur, and a player’s rank will oscillate widely. Essentially, a player will tend to bounce between the range of where he is nearly guaranteed to win and where he is nearly guaranteed to lose. The range varies from player to player, but +/- 250 SR/MMR is common and +/- 500 is possible. This problem can be analyzed in depth, mathematically (Overwatch Forums).
I’m assuming above that the player is not throwing intentionally. It’s generally hard to fall more than 1000 SR without doing it intentionally. At that point, the player should probably be reported. A ranking system cannot deal with throwing and boosting, only a banning system can.
I don’t believe MMR and SR in diamond + are incredibly synced. Though this could be thrown off due to a single DC. I’ve found that after having lost quite a bit SR recently (due to me being in poor positioning most of the time) that my gains have been higher. My MMR seems to get higher than my SR and I have not decayed, though within my last 10 games I did have a DC so I believe this is throwing things off