Forced Losing Streaks are Real

[PŖǾPĦƐŦ-1773]

think the same guy that thinks forced loss streaks are proven

I don’t ever remember saying that I “proved” them to be true. Dude, I mean, come on:

I have acknowledged multiple times that I could be wrong and that I could just be unlucky.

Could we just be really unlucky? Sure. We could just be insanely unlucky and I could be wrong about the streak thing

That was within like 20 comments ago. Please read before making snide comments.

a list that has as it’s component only a win streak

I think I’m coming to the conclusion that you just aren’t reading anything I’m posting. If you seriously aren’t going to read what I have to say, why are you here?

understands verification and validation of mathematical models?

Sure, let me verify it real quick…

Gimme one sec.

Oh yeah, I forgot where I’m going to able to verify his mathematical model that states how comp works. It’s gotta be somewhere… Maybe the source code! Oh wait, only the devs have access… Maybe the quotes from the devs! Oh wait, these are the same people that are banning popular streamers over the smallest of things and giving out very little information.

I would love for anyone to be able to validate it, but we do not have access to the true matchmaker, and thus, cannot verify his model.

I mean…he’s an admitted troll and anti-intellectual.

WHAT? Who admitted that I was a troll/anti-intellectual? I didn’t realize I was a known troller to these forums. And who discovered me as a troll? Please link me the exact comment where either I or someone else uncovers my identity as a troll. I can’t wait to see it.

By the way, if I’m a troll, why are you still responding to me? Seems a little ignorant to me.

There’s no discussion with someone who rejects ideas based on the very notion that they are ideas.

… Wow… Just wow…

This is exactly what you’re doing. Wake up.

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OzoneOOO, I have asked you already, and I will ask you again, please provide me with facts that determine the non-existence of any rigging in the Overwatch matchmaking system. You have only responded to very few of my comments and your responses are just snide comments about my intellect and skill, while knowing nothing about me. You have honestly brought very little to this discussion, and I’m probably going to stop responding to you.

[Kaawumba-1133]

Sure. Probably tomorrow. Sunday at the latest. What seasons are the data from?

[Oldphardt-2154]

Season 9 only, unfortunately.

[an1m4l-2215]

Some days ago I had one of those back to back sessions where the games seemed unwinnable.

I checked the profiles of both teams in two games and everyone was roughly 50/50 in WL ratio except one or two guys on my team. Those guys had records like 50-14 or something like that.

I haven’t diligently kept tabs. Could be a coincidence, but if it happens regularly this is proof enough for me.

[S23-11611]

The model this person is using has almost no value whatsoever. All it’s doing is analyzing to see if there is any unusual patterns occurring. In order for an unusual pattern to be flagged it would have to be extremely bizarre, something like

wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

Let me elaborate. I have taken this same model and put in completely random win loss patterns that I made up on the spot and it comes up with no anomalies. I have actually tried to purposely create anomalies that it would flag and it is actually difficult, it needs to be something that really stands out as artificial in order it to flag it as a “bad coin”.

Now listen to this next part very closely, I’m going to actually tell you how to stop the win and loss streaks that happen in this game. I have tested this myself for over three seasons and never had a streak even once.

Choose your best hero that you enjoy playing the most and one-trick it. Never change the hero even once. Your SR is going to fluctuate at first, there will be turbulence, but then it will settle down and you won’t have any streaks that cause you to lose or gain more than 100-120SR.

Try it for an entire season and see what you get. If you think I am just making this up or trolling, take a look at my profile and see that I only one trick. I am telling you 100% honestly what has worked for me for the past three seasons, here is the thread I created on it:

https://us.forums.blizzard.com/en/overwatch/t/solved-how-to-never-have-a-loss-streak-again/48535/40

[Kaawumba-1133]

@S23-11611

Let me elaborate. I have taken this same model and put in completely random win loss patterns that I made up on the spot and it comes up with no anomalies.

What the model does is to test to make sure that the data is random, that is not-rigged. So I guess you put in good, random fake data?

@S23-11611

I have actually tried to purposely create anomalies that it would flag and it is actually difficult, it needs to be something that really stands out as artificial in order it to flag it as a “bad coin”.

People (like the original post in this thread) claim that they can see anomalies in their data. They have “flagged” the data, but have no statistically significant evidence for this claim. That is what my post is really about: how to verify that a system is rigged, in a statistically significant way.

Also, you’re exaggerating how bad the data has to be before it gets flagged by my analysis.

On your theory about how to “fix” things, I’ll just quote Ozone here. I don’t have anything to add.

@OzoneOOO-1681

@S23-11611

Your explanation has multiple things wrong with it but it’s a moot point because I’m saying that swapping hero’s in the current match can unfavorably affect how the matchmaker pairs you with teammates in subsequent games.

I love how people can come up with the most convoluted idea possible to explain the simple idea that you are more consistent when you consistently play a single character.

Naw…maybe Blizz is tagging you for bad teammates if you switch heroes in a game. That makes SOOO much more sense. /s

[Kaawumba-1133]

@PŖǾPĦƐŦ-1773

Again, your model will only be accurate with the information given. You don’t know what’s happening under the hood. Unless you have looked through the source code yourself and can without a doubt say streaks don’t exist, your model will continuously be incorrect. Perhaps they have something in the code that forces loss streaks, but mathematically looks sound?

I know I said I was done. But . Consider the case of how the Volkswagen diesel scandal was discovered:

The Three Students Who Discovered Dieselgate

The researchers had no access to the source code (where the rigging was done) or what was happening under the literal hood. But they were able to detect that the nitrogen oxide emissions tests were rigged to pass. How did they do this? With Science! Where science here means relevant data and statistically significant analysis.

[PŖǾPĦƐŦ-1773]

The researchers had no access to the source code (where the rigging was done)

Here is a piece from the very beginning of the article:

This is where Arvind, Hemanth and Marc began measuring emissions. First truck emissions and then passenger cars

They actually had the capability to measure the emissions, and not only that, but the reasoning for their findings being so groundbreaking was due to the fact that they had something to compare it to. Volkswagen had to pass emissions certification, so they already have a threshold to test for. If their measurement is above the max – boom – scandal uncovered.

or what was happening under the literal hood

If you’re referring to the actual hoods of the car, I’m sure they know what’s happening there. They’re mechanical engineers.

Where science here means relevant data and statistically significant analysis.

Your “science” is not relevant. Again, these are statistics based on coin probability applied to a competitive environment in which you know nothing about. Those students knew the certification limit, and through actual measure, they could determine that there was something wrong. You have no actual measurements, only chances for something to exist based off of what the creators of the game say, and if you can’t see that the creators of their own game would be biased for themselves, then there is no changing your mind. I understand that you’re trying really hard to suck up to Blizzard and get hired, but they’re currently using you as a figurehead to change the minds of people who complain on this forum with mathematics that they think is too complicated for them. I know it excites you when someone says, “Blizzard should hire this guy! He’s so smart!”, but you need to take a step back and look at the big picture.

[OzoneOOO-1681]

Personally, I think SR is determined by each player having their own personal Troll who draws numbers out of a hat.

Prove to me Trolls don’t exist. Prove to me that this system isn’t correct, I believe it to be correct based on my experiences in the game. How else would I get these random events?

Don’t use what anyone says, though, they are biased in having you believe that there aren’t Trolls.

And showing that you can get the same result without resorting to Trolls doesn’t prove that Trolls don’t exist.

And Kaawumba…you’re obviously one of the Trolls, so whatever you say the truth is probably opposite.

[Amaro-21901]

You can never prove that something does not exist.

This ^

Also, i love how i’m away for a day.
People come with a complete data analysis on the subject, showing forced loss streaks aren’t happening.

Yet still, people believe it happenend because they are feeling like it does.

Since when is feelings > data?

[Raven-29332]

I feel you. I literally hate that system.

[Pokadotdurr-1934]

So…

I just hit my career high this season which was around 2370ish. What you would expect is that I would start losing games but that did not happen.

In fact I was getting about 2 wins for every loss and I kept going up. I peaked at 2579 which means I just climbed to Plat.

What I noticed was happening was I was just becoming much more aware of what was going on around me. Because of that I found I was positioning better and paying more attention to the states of team fights. I believe that was allowing me to get more performance out and win more games. I still had bad games, but I kept a better attitude because I felt I was able to analyze the mistakes I made and adjusted. It was almost like a light went on in my head and suddenly I was ‘getting it’.

I’ve now climbed from what would have been Bronze in S1 to Plat in this season. I have proven to myself that the forced losing streak theory is untrue and I focused on improving and this I have climbed.

[PŖǾPĦƐŦ-1773]

Personally, I think SR is determined by each player having their own personal Troll who draws numbers out of a hat.

Yeah you’re obviously just here to mess around.

Prove to me Trolls don’t exist.

They do exist.

Prove to me that this system isn’t correct, I believe it to be correct based on my experiences in the game.

Because every single person who plays this game has some problem with the matchmaking system.

And Kaawumba…you’re obviously one of the Trolls, so whatever you say the truth is probably opposite.

Can you tag my quote that says I think he’s a troll? You guys are continuously putting words in my mouth and have been since the beginning. You have nothing important to say, so please stop replying.

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You can never prove that something does not exist.

This ^

You guys are dense. That’s the point of why I asked. You come to forum posts and say “Here’s the math! It works!”, yet when someone says, “Prove that there isn’t something going on under the hood”, you reply with, “B-but that’s impossible!” Yeah, so stop coming to forum posts thinking that your math is the end-all to the topic. If you can’t prove my post wrong, you can’t prove your own models correct. Jeez. I thought you guys would pick up on that by now but you haven’t.

Since when is feelings > data?

Feelings aren’t greater than data, but you’re implying that you have data, which you do not. You have guesses, and your guesses are just as good as mine.

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I have proven to myself that the forced losing streak theory is untrue and I focused on improving and this I have climbed.

You seem to think that I’m not working to improve myself, just like everyone else here. I have been in Widow HS only lobbies practicing my aiming almost everyday for 2-3 hours. Yesterday, I was in a lobby with Taimou and held my own against him and the other T500 players that were there. I have faith in my own abilities, but my SR doesn’t represent it.

[indifferent-21909]

Can we all just acknowledge the FACT that no forum user knows how the matchmaking works. There are theories that are fundamentally wrong from the beginning as SR for example is a factor in matchmaking and has been since last November.

How are the teams formed? What are exactly the criteria used by the matchmaker to balance to a 50-50 win probability? Why does it take so long for certain people even though the whole Europe for example is covered by two servers? Why is that after you win more than you lose the queue times systematically get longer and longer until you lose a few games and they are shorter again? No one knows.

I wrote this so I can start linking to it in every thread talking about matchmaking:
https://us.forums.blizzard.com/en/overwatch/t/how-forming-teams-mmr-and-sr-work/65276

Nothing is as certain as the fact that we do not know.

[Amaro-21901]

If you can’t prove my post wrong

There is a full data analysis proving your post is wrong. And all you can say is that we can’t prove it is wrong, where is your proof that your view is right?

Feelings aren’t greater than data, but you’re implying that you have data, which you do not. You have guesses, and your guesses are just as good as mine.

Of course streaks exist. They just aren’t forced. Mathematical proof that streaks in Overwatch are not forced: https://us.battle.net/forums/en/overwatch/topic/20759379305

That post of Kaawumba is litteraly data that shows your idea is wrong.
A data analysis is not a guess, it’s a conclusion based on a large number of data.

So untill you come with your own data analysis showing forced streaks are real, the date provided > the feeling you have.

[Amaro-21901]

You seem to think that I’m not working to improve myself, just like everyone else here. I have been in Widow HS only lobbies practicing my aiming almost everyday for 2-3 hours. Yesterday, I was in a lobby with Taimou and held my own against him and the other T500 players that were there. I have faith in my own abilities, but my SR doesn’t represent it.

If you would genuinly would be able to keep up with Top500 widows and Taimou then you wouldn’t be in plat. Especially on widow, one of the heroes that can have a massive impact on the game if you are good with her.

Also, 1v1 or deathmatch is in no way comparable with comp 6v6

[indifferent-21909]

I’ll just leave this here as not only what we talk about in this thread but many other issues we experience are slowly but certainly killing Overwatch:

https://www.invenglobal.com/articles/4825/overwatchs-failing-ranked-system-puts-overwatch-esports-in-jeopardy

[PŖǾPĦƐŦ-1773]

Can we all just acknowledge the FACT that no forum user knows how the matchmaking works. There are theories that are fundamentally wrong from the beginning as SR for example is a factor in matchmaking and has been since last November.

I wish, but some people just have to make themselves feel smarter.

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And all you can say is that we can’t prove it is wrong, where is your proof that your view is right?

Oh my goodness. Read what I’m writing.

I have already said, I have no concrete proof, the same as everyone else on the forums. We are all speaking off of experiences, including you. My experience is that I hit seemingly forced streaks. Maybe you don’t, and that’s fine, but please don’t speak as if your “full data analysis” is concrete evidence. It’s not. It’s more guessing.

That post of Kaawumba is litteraly data that shows your idea is wrong.

A data analysis is not a guess, it’s a conclusion based on a large number of data.

A large number of data that comes from… where? Blizzard? Coin probability?

So untill you come with your own data analysis showing forced streaks are real, the date provided > the feeling you have.

Until your data is actually represented correctly (which it will never be),
Your guess = My guess.

If you would genuinly would be able to keep up with Top500 widows and Taimou then you wouldn’t be in plat. Especially on widow, one of the heroes that can have a massive impact on the game if you are good with her.

Also, 1v1 or deathmatch is in no way comparable with comp 6v6

This wasn’t to show that I’m as good as a T500 in a regular match. It was to show that my mechanical skills have gotten better faster than I would’ve thought. If I can place third against T500s who have been playing since Overwatch’s release, I feel as though my mechanical skill at least outmatches those I’m playing with in comp. The only point that I was trying to make is that I’m making an effort to get better.

[Amaro-21901]

Maybe you don’t, and that’s fine, but please don’t speak as if your “full data analysis” is concrete evidence.

Than what is it? It is literally a large number of data showing that your statement is wrong.

A large number of data that comes from… where? Blizzard? Coin probability?

The experience of a player (Kaawumba) writing down every match he plays, for hundreds of matches.

Until your data is actually represented correctly (which it will never be),

Your guess = My guess.

Have you read his post? It’s a full spreadsheat, representing each match.

If I can place third against T500s who have been playing since Overwatch’s release, I feel as though my mechanical skill at least outmatches those I’m playing with in comp.

Dude be real, if you really become third amongst only Top 500’s than you wouldn’t be in plat, your mechanical skill alone would compensate for any other player thrown at you.

I feel as though my mechanical skill at least outmatches those I’m playing with in comp.

And thank god mechanical skill isn’t the only skill in this game, there are a lot of other skills that are required to climb. Just because you train your aim doesn’t mean you are looking at improving.

Improving starts with reflection on yourself and looker for what needs improvement.

[S23-11611]

Prophet, forced streaks are definitely real. If we’re going to talk about it in a fair way we need to include that forced win streaks are just as real as forced loss streaks. For around seven seasons straight I experienced streaks where I would reach a certain threshold and then be riddled with actually unwinnable matches and lose around 600SR. Shortly after that I knew I would then be given unlosable matches where I would win back about as much as I lost. I have no doubt that you have experienced the same.

I have been living through this nightmare of a matchmaker for so long and have finally realized what is going on, at least partially. It’s no surprise to me that you use a bunch of different hero’s, here’s how you stop the streaks. You have to one trick. Swapping hero’s even for a little bit in certain very specific cases does something negative to the matchmaker.

Trust me, I know exactly what you are talking about and have played many hours to earn the right to have a valid opinion on the matchmaker. Next season try choosing your best hero and only play that one hero no matter what. You will see what I’m talking about, no more huge loss streaks.