They gonna fall into the same problem that killed Rainbow Six Siege.
Sure R6S is still technically alive, but its far from its prime.
The problem is that they focus on 1 thing: Please the competitive players.
What do competitive players want: -balance changes, -new heroes, -more maps
This alone leaves very little room to experiment and explore or draw in the casual players.
casual players want silly modes like prophunt. They want story and co-op like the PvE events like Archives were. They want to earn at least an epic legacy cosmetic after spending 8-10 hours in the game.
When I quoe up for a match, I’m waiting 10 minutes for a Mystery Heroes match, then instantly get rolled in a push match because my team is filled with ragequitters, and we are fighting 3v5 for 2 minutes out of 3. And what causes ragequtting even in a causal mode like arcade? The lack of incentive. That there is no reward for struggling and fighting a loosing battle.
Events when people could earn special lootboxes always caused massive influx in OW1 causing serious qoue time reductions. Without any rewards, anything to earn the casual players are slowly moving on to games where they feel appreciated and their time-investment rewarded.
In R6Siege when it started out, me and my friends memorized the names and abilities of each operator so easily and fast. And it felt good to be able to feel like you got a hang of the layout of the game. But with how many Operators there are now, and I only know like 1/3rd of them, and don’t even know what the other 2/3rd do, it feels pointless to try to get back into.
I see Overwatch fall into the same trap too. The massive hero-pool, though its good that all heroes are available from the start again, could potentially scare newcomers away. If you join a fight and you have no idea what the hell is going on in the fight because you see abilities you don’t recognize fly left and right filling up the screen, you will find the game too noisy and leave.
And lastly the biggest reason I don’t see a future in Overwatch: broken promises.
Not even the huge ones like PvE. But even the small ones. A year ago they promised massive reward system changes to make the game more fair, and more worth playing.
Only thing they did, is add another pricetag to Mythic skins, and add 20 cent worth of currenty to the battlepass.
There are so many ways they could’ve rewamped the system and given proper incentive to the casual players. Just lest us earn legacy credits per match and let us covert legacy credits to coins in the 3:1 ratio or something. Or crafting system where we earn cosmetic tokens per match, that we could then craft into a random cosmetic which tier depends on the amount of tokens we used.
I look at new games like Marvel Rivals. Almost all skins are earnable through gameplay, battlepasses never expire, you can complete the battlepass in whichever order you want, all for $10. It’s insanely more consumer friendly then what Overwatch has been the last 3 years sadly, so I don’t see any future unless they roll out massive system changes.