Did ANYONE archive Overwatch's BATTLENET Forum?

There is a ton of legal precedence regarding mislabeled products/services, misrepresented entertainment, gambling laws, prize machinery, etc. I’m going to take the advice of legal team and go with there is absolutely a case here.

Of course it’s still possible. It’s just harder to dig up one more barrier for the investigation.

i think it’s more in the civil wrongs and business offence categories, but sure. I think a bit part of the lawsuits is to bring exposure and force some industry-broad changes. Rigging is unethical, doesn’t belong in games, and jurisdictions need to take note.

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Tale, I respect you and your opinions, and I’ve even changed some of my views based on your arguments in the past. But we have serious disagreements about the efficacy of this matchmaker. In general, I think I’m going to step back from arguing with people who are proposing that it’s the best possible system, or even a good one. It just doesn’t make sense to entertain perspectives that far outside the scope of what I’m willing to accept. It’d be like considering arguments for kicking puppies. I’m not saying it’s that egregious, but it’s no more likely to convince. I’m also dead set that Blizzard is not a good or ethical company, so that’s going to make it all but impossible for me to accept that they’re scrupulous.

Our exchanges have been good, but I don’t want either of us to waste any more time trying to convince the other of our views on this.

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So when people disagree with you, you convince yourself that they’re delusional? On that note, why is that you’re so deadset on being a shill for a billion dollar company?

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You’re out of your mind my guy.

A very extreme take. Even for you.

You’re marrying senseless violence with a thoroughly thoughtout and well implemented system :face_with_monocle:

  • Well Implemented implying the concept of making a system that DOES do “a” job on a large scale (good/bad/indifferent)
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I wanna preface this by saying that I agree with almost everything you have been saying with regard to MMR. I do wanna contest the following point, though.

By necessity, MMR takes into account the past performance of players to form a game with a predicted outcome of roughly 50% win chance. From this follows that I get put into lobbies at my particular SR which may vary in difficulty depending on how I perform on a particular day.

Let’s say my SR is 3000 but in my past 5 games, I have outperformed my peers by a long shot. The system will now have to compensate for my overperformance in some way since matching me with 11 people that have the exact same SR than me, in this case 3000, will most likely not lead to a game of a predicted outcome of 50%. As a result, it either puts a player (or players) on my team that has been underperforming in their matches or it matches me against someone who has also been overperforming in their past few games (which essentially results in a higher possibility of that play being a higher ranked smurf). As a result, even though I still get matched into a 3000 SR lobby, the burden to win that game rests much more on my personal overperformance.

So unless I am misunderstanding how the system works, I would consider the MMR parameters that take into account the past performance based on which matches are created to lead to ‘grindier’ games than the ones in a MMR-less alternative which are created by just matching 12 players that have an SR of 3000. My chance of winning in the latter system is higher in the considered scenario in which I am outperforming my peers resulting in the fact that I have to play more games in the former system to reach the same net SR than in the latter.

Of course, I am glossing over the fact that the system described above also protects underperforming players by matching them with overperforming players or matching them against others that are underperforming, but this also supports the argument of the system being ‘grindier’ (it takes more games to drop down to SR X than in an MMR-less alternative).

In the end, I think this just begs the question of how much daily performance inconsistencies should impact the SR of players. You don’t suddenly turn into a 3500/2500 player over night. The current system takes this into account which is why the parameters that look at past performance are pretty tight as to prevent these daily inconsistenty swings in SR. Bright, on the other hand, is suggesting to loosen these parameters a little to allow for more ladder mobility.

Edit: since you mentioned pbsr as a system that accelerates the speed at which the system places a player at their appropriate SR, I do wanna add that PBSR mitigates some of this ‘grindiness’ by assigning me more SR for wins and less SR for losses. Though, I think the considered scenario would still overall require more time to climb from 3000 to, say, 3200 in the MMR environment vs an MMR-less environment (you could prove this mathematically, but I currently don’t have time for this so a strong hunch for my assumption will have to suffice).

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It’s actually the opposite of this. And this isn’t even theoretical, we’ve seen this happen in game. This is going to take a bit to explain though, so please bear with me:

The systems in place that people are complaining about exist to make the competitive mode less grindy. The reason for this is that we want to rank people as accurately as possible as quickly as possible. That’s the problem we are attempting to solve with any competitive ranking system, and people have put a lot of time and energy into how best to solve that problem.

Players, however, do not want to be ranked as accurately as possible as quickly as possible. They want to be ranked as high as possible. So they will find ways to circumvent these systems. And you can watch this dance in real time. I’ll give some high profile examples of this happening and the steps Blizzard took to deal with this later in the post. But first, a detour:

Why do competitive ranking systems push people toward a 50% win rate?

The ladder rankings are a testable prediction. We think this player is better than this player but worse than this other player. Every match, then, is an opportunity to test that prediction. Did the players we expected to win actually win? Did people perform as we would have expected them to perform given their current ladder ranking? Did they over-perform? Under-perform? All of this information is new information for us. So we factor that in to our future predictions. And the ladder rankings are adjusted accordingly.

Time for a non-competitive gaming example:

I sit down to take the GMAT, because I am applying to top ten grad schools and I need a score that places me somewhere in the top 5% of people applying to grad schools. It’s a very competitive ladder and the GMAT is the ranking ladder used by these schools to rank their admissions candidates.

I know (let’s assume I’ve done my research) that the middle 80% of test takers will get roughly half of the questions they face on the GMAT wrong. Only those test takers in the top 10% or the bottom 10% will deviate significantly from a 50% win rate. That does not mean, however, that the test is unfair. Or that I am unable to achieve a win rate higher than 50%. (You can, in fact, get every question on the GMAT correct. It’s just that only a tiny fraction of 1% of test takers have the skill to do so.) Likewise, you could get every question wrong. (Though this would also be incredibly unlikely.)

What it means is that the test is designed in such a manner as to most efficiently and accurately assess the relative skill levels of the test takers, and to do so across a wide range of skill levels. That’s why it is used by those top tier graduate programs to sort out their candidates. How does the test do this (the short answer is the same way the OW competitive ranking system does)?

It does this by selectively choosing the difficulty of the questions any individual test taker faces. Each question is chosen to test a particular hypothesis- we think that the test taker will get the next question correct roughly 50% of the time. Why do we think this? We judge based on the test taker’s past performance. So the first question any given test taker faces is one from the medium difficulty range (this is the equivalent of placing a new account in Gold). The next question they face will be whichever question we think will give us the most new information about that test taker- what question is most likely to upset our current assessment of this test taker’s skill. And that question will be one that we would expect them to get right roughly 50% of the time.

Consider the alternative. What if every question we give someone is one that we would expect them to get right roughly 80% of the time? We have now chosen to give ourselves far less information about this test taker. Perhaps we could still accurately rank our competitive ladder, but it would take much longer. This is the grindier alternative to the systems that are now in place. Their SR cannot change as much from one match to the next because we haven’t learned as much about them.

And that brings me back to where I began this post. I said at the top of this post that we’ve actually seen this happen on the competitive ladder in Overwatch. And that makes sense. Players don’t want an accurate assessment of their skill; they want to attain the highest rank possible and they will seek to circumvent systems that are in place to more accurately assess their skill when they can do so (in order to attain a higher rank). So, some examples (and it’s all really the same example it just happened in different regions and on different platforms):

  1. A group of high-rank players in the Oceania region began 6-stacking and playing during off hours. Why did they do this? They knew that this would give them the best opportunity to thwart the matchmaker. Because, again, the matchmaker is trying to find the match that would be most likely to cause us to reassess our current understanding of the ladder rankings. What match would give us the most new information about these players? The answer is, of course, a match that we would assess as a roughly 50/50 match.

So by 6-stacking, they force the matchmaker to try to find another 6-stack. By playing during off hours they limit the pool of available players as much as possible. And they essentially prevent the matchmaker from finding a 50/50 match. It won’t even be able to get close to a 50/50 match.

What is the outcome of this?

This 6-stack wins roughly 100% of their matches. Every time they do so, however, they gain some pittance of SR- maybe 1 or 2 SR per match. So they rank up. But it’s incredibly grindy. They essentially buy less accuracy in the rankings (because that’s what they want- to continue ranking up, regardless of whether they are the most skilled players on the ladder or not), but they pay for it in extreme grindiness.

  1. Groups of OWL players did the same thing on the NA ladder. They stacked during off hours so they could grind to the top of the ladder.

  2. A group of players on PS did the same thing- grouped during off hours and grinded their way to some ungodly SR (north of 5k if I recall correctly).

What do these examples show us- the current systems in place make the competitive ladder less grindy, not more. That’s point one. Point two is that if you did something like remove the matchmaker’s ability to find 50/50 matches, you would not only increase grindiness on the ladder, you would also remove the competitive integrity of the ladder as the rankings (particularly those at the top and the bottom of the ladder) would be less accurate. Point three, people have done this intentionally. They’ve tested it for us. We know it increases grindiness and decreases the accuracy of the rankings. Point four- these systems are in place in order to solve the problem of assessing the relative skill levels of the players on the ladder. That’s why they are employed across a range of fields, not just in online gaming.

I can go into greater detail if necessary.

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The fact that you read Mercer’s post and interpet that as “forced 50% winrate” confuses the hell out of me. That’s not what it means at all. And if that’s how you interpret it, you should probably head back to 5th grade and improve your reading comprehension.

I’m yet to see a single patent that does the things you people say they do. Links to patents have been posted, but they’re often for completely irrelevant things and are attributed to people that work for completely unrelated studios within Activision - not even Blizzard employees, let alone members of Team 4.

This is a fantastic explanation. The only thing I would add is that if you have reached the point where your winrate is 50%, that would indicate that you have reached your optimal SR/MMR, not that the game is rigged against you. As soon as you improve, you’ll begin to climb again.

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This is a good point. If someone is hovering around a 50% win rate, that indicates that the current hypothesis is correct- they are correctly placed on the ladder. One should not expect to rank up, given that scenario (or rank down). One should expect to stay roughly where they are. It is only when one improves beyond the system’s current understanding of their skill that they rank up. And the way to demonstrate that is to win those matches that are predicted to give you a 50% win rate. It’s important to understand, though, that the prize for doing so is to be placed in tougher and tougher matches- the same sort of matches that the players above you on the ladder are winning roughly 50% of the time.

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Absolutely - if you want to continue to climb, you’ll need to continue to improve. Eventually you’ll reach your new peak and your winrate will settle to 50% again, indicating you’re now correctly placed.

I think the core of this complaint is that some people don’t like being told that they’re not the best and probably won’t ever be. :man_shrugging:

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Your post doesn’t address the point I was making.

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You might need to cite your source on this one if only because the limit is 5000.

I haven’t found anything that suggests any player has ever surpassed 5k.

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I honestly don’t have a source handy. It was a long time ago. The reason for the stack limits was this behavior, so this would have been before the current stack limits.

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I thought your point was that tools used to make matches at or near a predicted 50% win rate increased grindiness (That is, they would increase the time taken to rank up). Have I misunderstood you? If so, could you clarify?

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I’m aware…

The New York Excelsior (in like season 9 or 10 :thinking:) was notorious for this.

Stack limits came around the time I started playing in season 13 or 14.

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I quit playing for reasons unrelated to the game, but stayed away because of the shady practices of the company regarding sexual harassment and cowing to authoritarians.

Since I’ve been posting here in the last week, all I’ve done is try to convince people to stop arguing against your conspiracy theories. We all believe in some conspiratorial thinking, I really don’t care if a person refuses to understand the intricacies of a skill ranking system that’s not a bracket or W/L ratio.

In the last 4 years, I’ve seen this thinking in far, far more important realms than a near-dead video game. I used to have an interest in keeping people from getting tilted and giving up, so that MY games would go better, but I no longer have that interest. If taleswapper does, I’ll let him do it, but I advise against it. OW and GMAT aren’t on the same level of importance and he’s not dealing with the same caliber of people.

I am interested in Cuthbert. He’s an interesting character that has some idea that is far more complex than what many of his detractors OR ACOLYTES think. You may think you agree with him, but I doubt you do.

I really would like to know what he actually thinks, what the actual problem is. Even though the term “handicapping” leads to confusion because it sounds like “disability”, he’s not really using the word wrong nor is his apparent conception of how the system works wrong. He knows how it works, it seems, for the most part, but still thinks it’s bad and I’ve never understood why.

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It doesn’t at all. The context is pretty clear.

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To you, yes. But I do think a significant amount of people see his wording and think that Blizzard is “disabling” them in some way to “force” a 50% win rate.

Which isn’t what he’s saying at all, of course. He’s saying that players are sorted by skill into teams where both side have an equal chance to win…which is true.

But that’s not what people read when they read “handicapped”. Rarely, if ever, do I see people say “Weird way of putting it, Cuth, but ok. Now explain again why this is bad and what changes should be made?”

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It’s funny that a tool I developed that simulates matchmaking uses almost identical reasoning in its design. However, much as the post struggles to explain with words, some things are better represented with numbers and graphs.

I didn’t use any of this source information by the way. I simply developed the process the way that made the most sense (based on what is seen, and players’ explained experiences) and the resulting matchmaker model I made does an excellent job showing how matches can be both fair and (ultimately) unfair using their prescribed logic.

You can find my Matchmaker Tool here 🙂
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XtVVYyEx0__EwdrGJ0WGbZr_rUI3Up94Wacu-Fi2kRc
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Fair.

Uhh… My experience in interacting with him (which is much more than I care to admit) is the opposite. He doesn’t see “equal chance to win.”

But that’s just my conversations with him over the past 2 years.

Weird?

More like incorrect and intentionally arousing. For as much as I don’t care for the lies and nonsense he peddles, he’s great at leading the blind, lost and misguided. I feel like we’ve seen this a handful of times in history.

  • #unfortunate
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Honestly, my main interest in this topic is precisely because OW is a lower stakes opportunity to practice the same sorts of critical thinking that are so very, very important in others spheres (and, in particular, because these conversations were so similar to conversations I have every day with my students). One of the things one does if one wants to promote critical thinking and useful habits of thought is to take the opportunities to practice these skills in low pressure and/or low stakes environments.

People generally conceive of intelligence as an innate trait- something that is intrinsic to one’s being, that one either possesses or does not. But I think it is far more useful (and accurate) to conceive of intelligence as a set of habits. If one practices poor habits of thought in one area, one will be more likely to practice those habits of thought in other areas. Conversely, if one practices useful habits of thought in one area, one will be more likely to practice those habits of thought in other areas. Overwatch, then, and the conversations surrounding how the matchmaker functions and how the players are ranked on the competitive ladder, is a useful opportunity to exercise one’s critical thinking skills in an environment that does not have major consequences for doing so poorly, but which, nevertheless, does impact the way the participants process other complex situations that are far more impactful.

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