Cross Season SR Decay

[DrAGger-2817]

Hey All,

I haven’t placed in season 9 yet, but was ~3500 at the end of season 8. Will my SR decay if I don’t play for an entire season? Has my SR decayed already in the background because I haven’t been actively playing or will my placements in season 10 pick up from where I left off in season 8 (provided I don’t play comp at all in S9)?

Thanks in advance

[slipperyfist-11585]

I waited until the end of last season to place after finishing 3600 and immediately was put into placements with 3000s (many who had decayed ) so it was odd and seemed like maybe some sort of weird decay happened but it’s prob just how it works out in the end

[Kaawumba-1133]

Decay doesn’t happen until you do your placements. However, if you don’t play for a while, your MMR uncertainty goes way up. This means that your SR/MMR can go way up or down during placements when you return.

@Kaawumba-1133

Players’ 10 placement matches will start with Blizzard’s best estimate of each player’s MMR for matchmaking purposes (15). A player’s initial SR will generally be close to his previous season ending SR, with a relatively ordinary adjustment based on 10 placement matches.

However, occasionally a player will have a large movement (24) in either direction. This happens on relatively inactive accounts (39), and can be explained by Scott’s statement: “Play a lot of games, it (MMR) gets more certain. Don’t play Overwatch for a while, it gets less certain. The more certain the matchmaker is about your MMR, the less your MMR will change in either direction based on a win or loss” (2). Essentially, if a player only does his placements, or slightly more than that, in a season, his MMR/SR is prone to much wider swings when he returns.

Because of reasonably high quality data for seasons 6, 7, 8, and 9 (24), it is possible to derive a formula: (New Season Starting SR) = (-173.7 +/- 20.8) + (1.0015 +/- .0059) * (Previous season Ending SR) + (37.94 +/- 2.23) * (Placement Wins). New Season Starting SR has a standard error of 181 SR (24), which implies a possible change in rating during placements of +/- 500 SR for inactive accounts. For active accounts, the max range is more like +/- 200 (from winning or losing all matches).

Decay does not persist through season transitions. That is, if a player decays from 4000 to 3000 before the season break, he will typically place around 4000 after the season break. Of course, if he is an inactive player (which decayed players often are), he may see an unexpectedly large swing in either direction.

Prior to season 6 (September 2017), players’ SR would be bumped down below their MMR at the beginning of the season, and they would earn it back with an SR buff over the course of 50 matches. This felt bad and was removed (15).

(2) Overwatch Forums The statement, “You go on a large win or loss streak, it gets less certain” is no longer valid, as win streak bonuses (and loss streak penalties) have been removed from the game.
(15) Developer Update | Upcoming Season 6 Changes | Overwatch - YouTube
(24) Season Placement Data - Google Sheets
(39) Season 9 Placements Analysis, High Variance Explained