"But McCree's winrate is sooooooo bad😭"

[Opulence-21834]

The fact that McCree is so OP rn that the forum is resounding with calls to nerf him prove winrate is no reason on its own to buff a hero

[ThiccBuddha-1468]

It proves it to the masses, but I still maintain that yes, whether a hero performs is kind of important. Crazy, I know. I get that a lot when I point out common sense.

[GreyFalcon-11737]

@ThiccBuddha-1468

common sense

More like common assumption.

Winrate math is so distorted, that it’s practically worthless.

But you got people acting like it means something.

This is from a guy who has been having frequent email exchanges with the Overbuff website developer.

@RobotWizard-116887

Win rate - How likely a hero will win in a game, subject to a large number of caveats.

• Win rate is influenced by SR, because the games player base is set out on a bell curve, low ranked players TEND to play against people higher ranked than they are on average, and the reverse is true. So, you need to compare it to the base line of that rank.
• Even within a rank, that same bias comes into play to a less of a degree.
• Hero which are swapped to, to counter, have a lower win rate, JUST because they tend to be picked when you are already losing.
• Win rate is weighted by how long the hero was played in the match. This means heroes which are played on defensive more than attack, tend to have over inflated win rates. After all, if they do well, defense lasts a long time, and has a higher weighting. If an attacking hero does well, the attack phase is MUCH shorter, so they have the reverse effect, artificially pushing their win rate down.
• Heroes which have a lot of mirroring tend to push the hero towards the middle of the rank. Since for every win there is a loss. (but middle of the RANK, rather than towards 50%, because the win is still more likely to go to the higher SR person) (see Moth Mercy for a VERY good demo of this)
• Heroes which are one tricked a lot, ALSO get pushed towards rank average, the players are typically stable in their rank, so, run the rank average. This means the win rate is MOSTLY made up of people who don’t run the hero all the time. They will be winning on one hero, and losing on another.

The last point is a VERY interesting one, since, it means that their win rate is heavy biased towards “how easy is a hero to get value from for people who play more than one hero” - they are represented in the win rate WAY WAY more than the one tricks. The more someone one tricks, the less they are represented in the win rate.

[Opulence-21834]

It’s also common sense to actually read the post you’re replying to; I said win rate on its own

[ThiccBuddha-1468]

Don’t worry, the developers that design games for a living have accurate numbers. Hence why he hasn’t been addressed and why anytime they caved to the hive mind, he was gifted rapid and substantial compensation buffs.

We can pretend he needs big nerfs all we want, but if and when he gets touched, I promise you it will be very slight, probably a revert. And if I am wrong, I am still right because they will hit em with the clean compensation buffs like always.

[MooshPaw2-1227]

You’re telling me 2 mccrees on the same match will result in one winning and one losing, therefore 50% winrate?

🤯

[Opulence-21834]

It’s arrogance like this that will get Fan The Hammer put on a cooldown

[GreyFalcon-11737]

The developers have previously pointed out that they don’t use winrate, as we see it, because they exclude mirror matches.

Which by itself is an extreme amount of data distortion on a hero with such a high usage rate.

Then you got the Overbuff devs confirming that usage rates are based on time. Which means a hero that’s good for quick rounds on Attack, but doesn’t create long rounds on Defence, has an artificially low winrate.

[MooshPaw2-1227]

@Opulence-21834

Fan The Hammer put on a cooldown

Don’t mind me but i actually think this is a very useless nerf
Idk why people are suggesting it

[ThiccBuddha-1468]

That is such a baby nerf that I believe it. That is the exact kind of change I am expecting.

[GreyFalcon-11737]

@MooshPaw2-1227

You’re telling me 2 mccrees on the same match will result in one winning and one losing, therefore 50% winrate?

It’s bizarre how math like that is ignored by people with winrate arguments.

As if math is unimportant when talking about numbers.

[ThiccBuddha-1468]

I ignore it for two reasons, firstly, your own claim that the math is shoddy. Funny how that is all of a sudden not relevant, and furthermore because heroes who having much higher pickrates also have much higher winrates when they are dominant. Especially relative to the class of heroes. It is pretty easy to ignore when all heroes have the math applied under the same circumstances. There isn’t a secret McCree equation, fam.

The people who force that 50/50 logic are the ones ignoring the data. Bias will be bias.

[GreyFalcon-11737]

@ThiccBuddha-1468

Funny how that is all of a sudden not relevant,

It was never relevant.

[ThiccBuddha-1468]

The distortion isn’t relevant? K. Interesting 180.

[GreyFalcon-11737]

It’s perfectly normal to change your understanding of something when you see new compelling evidence.

This is from a guy who has been having frequent email exchanges with the Overbuff website developer.

@RobotWizard-116887

Win rate - How likely a hero will win in a game, subject to a large number of caveats.

• Win rate is influenced by SR, because the games player base is set out on a bell curve, low ranked players TEND to play against people higher ranked than they are on average, and the reverse is true. So, you need to compare it to the base line of that rank.
• Even within a rank, that same bias comes into play to a less of a degree.
• Hero which are swapped to, to counter, have a lower win rate, JUST because they tend to be picked when you are already losing.
• Win rate is weighted by how long the hero was played in the match. This means heroes which are played on defensive more than attack, tend to have over inflated win rates. After all, if they do well, defense lasts a long time, and has a higher weighting. If an attacking hero does well, the attack phase is MUCH shorter, so they have the reverse effect, artificially pushing their win rate down.
• Heroes which have a lot of mirroring tend to push the hero towards the middle of the rank. Since for every win there is a loss. (but middle of the RANK, rather than towards 50%, because the win is still more likely to go to the higher SR person) (see Moth Mercy for a VERY good demo of this)
• Heroes which are one tricked a lot, ALSO get pushed towards rank average, the players are typically stable in their rank, so, run the rank average. This means the win rate is MOSTLY made up of people who don’t run the hero all the time. They will be winning on one hero, and losing on another.

The last point is a VERY interesting one, since, it means that their win rate is heavy biased towards “how easy is a hero to get value from for people who play more than one hero” - they are represented in the win rate WAY WAY more than the one tricks. The more someone one tricks, the less they are represented in the win rate.

[Toast-22632]

At this point Robotwizards post should just be pinned so everyone actually understands how Overbuff works.

[Bui-1491]

Hmm, then I guess heroes with high win rates with low use rates are just high because they’re one tricked only when they find it optimally. Like Torbjorn or Bastion, then players just swap when it doesn’t work.

[GreyFalcon-11737]

@Bui-1491

Hmm, then I guess heroes with high win rates with low use rates are just high because they’re one tricked only when they find it optimally. Like Torbjorn or Bastion, then players just swap when it doesn’t work.

Yup, and because they tend to extend the duration of the match giving them more playtime on a specific hero, and get switched off quickly of they aren’t working.

[Scylaceus-1123]

Just sayin the whole 50% winrate argument doesn’t work for McCree because he’s only played 50% of the time

There’s Reinhardt who’s played 75% of the time and is sitting on a 52% WR which may indicate that he’s winning extra games where the other team isn’t running Reinhardt

But McCree is only winning 49% of the time, being picked around 50% of games which can be an indication that the team that isn’t picking him is more likely to win
I know people will argue that people swap to him when they’re losing but honestly I think McCree is vastly overrated in comparison to cries for him to be nerfed, he really isn’t the monster that people claim he is

If it was simply “pick McCree and win when the other team doesn’t play him” then he would definitely have a higher win rate, I do think McCree (alongside Tracer) do need to be nerfed, but I also think people are far too quick to complain and are vastly over exaggerating his strength

[Vendamar-1771]

@Opulence-21834

The fact that McCree is so OP rn that the forum is resounding with calls to nerf him prove winrate is no reason on its own to buff a hero

As long as people are so blind as to believe this there will never be progress.