Hey thanks for the read. I think alot of this has been derived and put together
This one was derived after reading stuff about True skill. Yes blizzard doesnt use the exact microsoft true skill, but I am sure the algorithms are very similar. Just because a dev doesnt say it exactly, doesnt mean its not in the game. Absences of truth is not proving anything. Until they address it specifically, I can only go by an algorithm thats better documented - NOT OBFUSCATED.
Kudos to microsoft for disclosing THEIR algorithm and yet no hacker has undermined it MORE than blizzards system.
So if everyone is “uncertain” then no1 can be certain. So if you compare the uncertain to the certain, it lessens the “uncertain”.
All of this can be found in here:
https ://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/project/trueskill-ranking-system/?from=https ://research.microsoft.com/en-us/projects/trueskill/&type=exact
Uncertainty is always there. It doesnt disappear just because a modifier doesnt show up. Any machine learning algorithm spits out two things when it tries to classify anything, the “thing” and the percent certainty. Think of the facial recognition systems you see in movies, match found with 98% certainity… also the quote below is from a forum series that USED TO be posted but no longer does.
Lastly:
Again we DONT KNOW unfortunately. MMR is stored (not shown). Uncertainty is stored (not shown). SR… is stored and shown. MMR can be used, and maybe uncertainty comes into play for team balancing… We dont know, and in 8 years I have yet to seen any documentation of blizzards match making, yet I posted Microsofts true skill.
Other than that we have this from 2016, which I think still has some relevance today:
https ://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pglxege-gU
So yes a match maker “FORCES” a loss only because it puts up against opponents that are better than you, lol. But if you keep trying against tougher opponents, your certainty goes up and your odds of winning also diminishes, so its even harder to maintain the rank even when getting a 50/50.
Uncertainty is the reason why end of season sucks. Newer accounts created while you’ve been playing all season.