Break down on how the matchmaker forces you to lose

I’ll try to break it this down, the best I can. If you have no interest in my thread, feel free not to respond, your announcement of disinterest is not needed.

Tl;dr : series of variables create a window of “suck” aka, losers queue. It doesn’t have to track your previous win rate to establish the losers queue. But ultimately - shills and paid actors try to draw this into a rank discussion, but it’s not about rank, but match quality.

Yes the game does NOT “track” historic win lost rates. You just get TWO values. One is the solid Mmr value, the other is an uncertainty value. Both of these are used in matchmaker / team balancer to make a lobby.

Fundamental truth, the less uncertainty, the more likely you are paired with people with high uncertainty (so you can drive their uncertainty down).

Another fundamental truth, your sr follows your mmr, and it’s your sr that determines your team balancing (in addition with uncertainty). Sr MAYBE determines the modifier you get after a match, could be Mmr too.

When you go on a win streak, your Mmr let’s say starts at 0, and your uncertainty is at 0. Let’s track what happens. And this is past placements, and calibration.

First 5 games, your Mmr goes up because you certainly have beat people below, at and above your current Mmr. How much does it go up? WHO KNOWS?? Depends on how high you beat a person it paired you with. Since Mmr is hidden (OBFUSCATION), you’ll never know just how high your Mmr went.

Best case it went up to the “next level”, your sr however is still mapped to your “previous Mmr”, remember it follows and maybe never exact.

Your uncertainty… has now gone up too. You got some games under your belt, the system thinks your closer to your current Mmr.

Okay, you luckily win 5 more games. 10 games in a row, I have done it, maybe even provided codes the forum in the past, so not impossible.

Mmr, goes “up”. By how much? WHO KNOWS??? (OBFUSCATION). Your sr however might still be mapped to your original Mmr, maybe “next level” but certainly not where your current Mmr is.

Your uncertainty, oh boy it’s starting to get very high certainty (this too is unknown, but some modifiers do indicate low certainty - “calibration”, but we’re past that).

So your Mmr could be 2-4 levels high (who knows), your uncertainty is more “certain”. Your sr is still “far” compared to your Mmr. But your sr still modifies your sr bonus? (This is why I think it’s Mmr, because to help get your “sr” to map to your Mmr FASTER, why would it use a lagging value? You could be playing at diamond but your sr still in plat, to help you see the diamond pixel icons I figure they want to boost the sr to reflect your Mmr - but… WHO KNOWS???)

This is when things get … sad. :cry: you’re now playing at a higher Mmr. And yes, the overall system works, your playing with and against people who are probably better (not by much) than folks 10 games. HOWEVER, your certainty is higher than it was 10 games ago. So you’re playing with better players with less certain teammates (and maybe opponents however if your opponents have lower certainty - WHO KNOWS).

You lose a game. Happens to everyone. Even smurfs. But maybe your Mmr doesn’t drop as fast cause of your certainty is higher? How many games does it take to get you back to an even play field? - WHO KNOWS? Maybe it has to be the same number? Maybe it has to be more because your certainty is higher? BUT for sure, now that your certainty is higher, you’re attracting MORE uncertain players. So now your slightly stuck at a higher elo, but your getting more and more players who DONT PLAY as much as you did for that season (I’m accelerating a little, typing more than I wanted).

What happens to me… win streak… 50/50 for awhile, but because I play more than casually, I attract casuals. I attract casual stacks… it gets to a point where I can’t “carry” and I spiral into a loss streak until my certainty has to take a hit or I switch to a different account.

So yes, the system doesn’t track loss streaks. But what clings to you is certainty, and that rarely goes down. So the same range of sr you breezed up, now is harder because your attracting “different” teammates. Yes, it evens out to produce the 50/50.

You’re going to get to a place where you can carry those casuals and your opponents are not as good. But at what cost? Match quality. Which is why this always been about match quality and not rank. At the end of the day, no1 cares about their rank (sort of), but when loading in we want people of like minds playing together. We can’t get that cause of certainty matches with uncertain.

How to fix it:
Add “timescale”. As the season goes on, your timescale to your Mmr shields you from those who just started comp. The more you play, the bigger and denser your shield. For queue times and the grains of sands the shield breaks down, but ultimately you’re more likely to play with people who have been playing just as long as you have.

5 Likes

Going off the title alone (I refuse to read the rest, too long considering what I’m about to say).

It does not force you to lose.
It doesn’t force you to win.
Forced results are not a thing in any shape or form.

I think you just agreed with the post so thanks for your endorsement.

1 Like

Where has this been said by the devs?

only mmr is used for matchmaking though.

Calibration modifier essentially means youre having uncertainty. So if you dont have calibration modifier, youre not having uncertainty.

https://bnetcmsus-a.akamaihd.net/cms/page_media/sx/SXLMKNFKX9TF1707419574625.png

3 Likes

I didn’t read it. You’re worse that blizzard for keeping it concise.

You are what you fight against lol

Hey thanks for the read. I think alot of this has been derived and put together

This one was derived after reading stuff about True skill. Yes blizzard doesnt use the exact microsoft true skill, but I am sure the algorithms are very similar. Just because a dev doesnt say it exactly, doesnt mean its not in the game. Absences of truth is not proving anything. Until they address it specifically, I can only go by an algorithm thats better documented - NOT OBFUSCATED.

Kudos to microsoft for disclosing THEIR algorithm and yet no hacker has undermined it MORE than blizzards system.

So if everyone is “uncertain” then no1 can be certain. So if you compare the uncertain to the certain, it lessens the “uncertain”.

All of this can be found in here:
https ://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/project/trueskill-ranking-system/?from=https ://research.microsoft.com/en-us/projects/trueskill/&type=exact

Uncertainty is always there. It doesnt disappear just because a modifier doesnt show up. Any machine learning algorithm spits out two things when it tries to classify anything, the “thing” and the percent certainty. Think of the facial recognition systems you see in movies, match found with 98% certainity… also the quote below is from a forum series that USED TO be posted but no longer does.

Lastly:

Again we DONT KNOW unfortunately. MMR is stored (not shown). Uncertainty is stored (not shown). SR… is stored and shown. MMR can be used, and maybe uncertainty comes into play for team balancing… We dont know, and in 8 years I have yet to seen any documentation of blizzards match making, yet I posted Microsofts true skill.

Other than that we have this from 2016, which I think still has some relevance today:
https ://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pglxege-gU

So yes a match maker “FORCES” a loss only because it puts up against opponents that are better than you, lol. But if you keep trying against tougher opponents, your certainty goes up and your odds of winning also diminishes, so its even harder to maintain the rank even when getting a 50/50.

Uncertainty is the reason why end of season sucks. Newer accounts created while you’ve been playing all season.

1 Like

Doesn’t matter the ranking system. People will always cry about it.

You mention true skill…
h ttps://www.reddit.com/r/halo/comments/s32k7b/explaining_the_true_skill_2_ranking_system_and/

Gamers these days, can’t just enjoy a video game for what is and move on when they are bored of it.

Ok, you just posted as both mmr+uncertainty are used for matchmaking as “fundamental truth”.
We have blizzard devs saying they just use mmr for it on player basis.

Other than that, the post from Kaawumba is pretty good. Pretty much agree with most of it, besides some things that have changed since, like ow2 not having performance tracking at all.

Like Kaawumba, i also think the SR/mmr deviation is usually negilible.
And especially now in ow2, where no visual decay is happening anymore and now we dont have the 5 wins 10 losses cards either.
When ow2 had the cards system, you could have MMR at max “4 wins … 10 losses” separate from SR before your SR would have updated to reflect mmr again. This also allowed people to sort of abuse the system more by minmaxing the allowed grouping restrictions.

Anyways regarding the uncertainty etc, i wouldnt necessarily disagree in saying if the current placements have too big impact on some players ratings.
Likewise how they use now qp mmr for the initial seed, it was probably too aggressive. They have supposedly tuned its impact down somewhat.

Still right now we have to keep in mind the mmr reset that also occured this season which i think is still affecting the match making and may take some time to “normalize”.

Please please do not ignore the uncertainty. Machine learning algorithms HAVE to have a “certainty”. As a person who has an undergrad and grad degree in cs, uncertainty can not be ignored and I WISH the devs can address it. For example certainty is used for training such models.

Maybe they need a dev update for “technical” folks. It’s hard to discern what’s not talked about vs what’s not want to be talked about. Here we have entire websites and explanations for true skill and here say for blizzards….

And just for the record :

You admit sources linked… I can only take in what’s provided. The mere fact DEVS NEVER SAID ANYTHING ABOUT UNCERTAINTY yet Kaaw was the one who posted it first.

Where did he get THAT information? He has his own sources tab. I posted my sources I challenge anyone to see why he thought uncertainty was even mentioned and maybe you’ll have your “dev reference”.

According to kaaw this post was for uncertainty: Role Queue Update

The game does not force you to lose.

That is CrAzY talk conspiracy nonsense.

It encourages you to lose.

MY BAD,

What trigger me is all the talking points of "matchmaker doesnt look at history… " and to me… it doesnt have to. Outside the Netflix show, the 3 body problem is hard to predict. Here you got MMR, SR, uncertainty, and a slew of other variables and happenings.

But for the record All matchmakers do this… there’s nothing different than any other games.

EDIT - remember the experiment of multiple posting… now I cant do it.

New Post:

I think the lesson learned is, this game is NOT bringing like minded people together, its seeing how much can you carry the new kid against - MAYBE another new kid. Those stomps that happen, the lack of “micro adjustments” - Its a stack or a new kid not knowing what to do, and with 5v5 (not that I am jumping on the 6v6 bandwagon), all it takes is 1 new kid.

New kid, lack of awareness, unwillingness to “dump down” the game, and you get this soup of emotions.

2 Likes

Are you saying MMR/matchmaking in Overwatch is a machine learning system aka AI?

1 Like

According to Gavin yes. I will add AI and Machine learning define different things. The whole family of AI & Machine learning & neural networks is all statistics methods that date back to before computer times. Then, they just didnt have enough data to really see the outcomes.

Have you got a source please?

I think Gavin has only mentioned “machine learning” in the context of the performance based rating system they had in ow1, which is no longer in use.

around here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sD6FvhdP2Rk&t=2970

2 Likes

That makes a lot of sense. I never thought about this before but it explains

and why

after every big update or announcement

And why end of season is not great: new accounts are getting created everyday, they don’t know nor care about the seasons. However I and many others been playing all season cementing my certainty. Uncertain attracted to certain.

Which thinking about this more! Anytime you make a stack your uncertainty for the group is generated. We don’t know how stacks are treated, are they a single entity with a new uncertainty rating? Is their uncertainty fresh or averaged sum like their Mmr?

Potentially:
So the longer you play, the more attraction you have towards :
newer players
And stacks

Honestly this could solve the “old account curse”. Old account will unfairly attract these elements. High level you would think newer accounts are attracted to older accounts so evens out. But blizz admits newer accounts tend to lose more. That was in a dev update.

1 Like

Encouraging you to ignore the obvious trolls and “paid actors” or whatever in this thread that are either lying, arguing semantics, or just completely inexperienced.

It is absolutely without question a fact that certain things trigger a string of losses where you have a string of consecutive matches that you have a significantly strong chance of losing, I’m guessing you are around 75% certain to lose. When someone insists it doesn’t exist, all it does is let me know that person has no idea what they are talking about and to ignore anything else they say because I know beyond a shadow of a doubt it DOES exist. The opposite is true for wins. you can go on win streaks just like this.

Here is my honest guess as to what is happening: I believe a post I read years ago that said blizzard has an anti boosting algorithm where it recognizes when someone is boosting an account and puts them into a “boosters” queue where they rank up quickly. Why would they do this? To separate “boosters” from the general public so they have less of a chance to ruin the experience. Who do they play against? Read below.

It can recognize accounts being boosted because the accounts in-game performance has suddenly increased by a dramatic amount indicating that a different person is playing on the account. This triggers the algorithm to place them into a queue with other accounts that are being boosted and they win a bunch in a row. This continues until their in-game performance returns to baseline indicating the original account owner is playing again…so it places them into a queue to put them back at the rank where the boost began. It does this by teaming you up with other people who are on accounts recognized to be boosted and probably ARE boosted. The people you are playing against are other accounts that are currently BEING BOOSTED and your teammates are literally boosted scrubs. So it’s attempting to create matches where accounts currently being boosted are playing against accounts that were boosted and need to be ranked back down. So is the loss FORCED? Technically you could win but it’s almost impossible to win which is essentially a forced loss.

It almost makes sense right? Separate accounts that are being boosted from the general public so it doesn’t spoil the competitive experience. This is the type of idea that sounds good at the table but is awful in practice since it is clearly triggering at the wrong times and causing people to go on win and loss streaks that are completely unwanted leading to a terrible experience. Some people never experience it simply because they are literally not good enough to make the algorithm believe they are boosting.

It comes down to poor programming and bad ideas.

3 Likes

At this point it is a phenomenon, as to why… we can only speculate.

Back in the days when I made it to diamond, things were CAKE. I breezed thru plat from gold. Then got stuck and fell back to plat. Now with season 9 … my alt is hard stuck in gold. Technically I am smurfing but I can’t win a game even when trying hard with my main.

And sorry, it wasn’t even MY performance that changed. I play pretty cOnSiSteNlY. My accuracy goes up, always between 40-50. My deaths are consistent but the driving force is who people pick around me. Opponents and teammates. Then it’s people picking toons and the lack of knowledge they have. “I’m picking dva to absorb that damage”… huh?

That’s when the matches feel awful. People just not knowing, poor awareness, not aggressive (now that I’ve been coached to be aggressive I see the non aggressive clearly). But SOMETHING clicks during those loss streaks / and maybe win streaks.

1 Like

Uncertainty is part of the system in one way or another, that we can agree.

I’m not saying the system would not look at uncertainty of people when setting up teams, its certainly possible the matchmaker prefers mixing people with higher certainty with people of low certainty.
Instead of making one team of only high uncertainty players etc.

Anyways, lets assume it does that.

Youre saying that is the cause for you to go into losses. I’m not sure if that would follow.

Namely, if your uncertainty is low, you should then be playing -against- people of low uncertainty as well.

This then means, that the people on the enemy team, who are now supposedly of low uncertainty, also should have preferrably “high uncertainty” teammates. Just like you.

So, to me, it should balance itself out. Both teams should have players with higher certainty, and lower.

I think you sort of thought about it doing this as well in your op.

I mean, otherwise the system would be somehow singling out only “you” as an individual for some reason and that would make little sense to me.