There is no real baseline for this.
Given the 500 to 5000 SR range, the changing percentage of the player base as at the far ends, the impact of player location/ping/time of day on player population, different game modes and then the impact of players in stacks as that compounds the avoid issues in over all population.
so prime time weekend + west coast + average gold SR + solo player Vs midwest + 3am + GM + in a stack of 3… They are so far apart from each other you just can’t draw any sort of conclusion with basic math based of totally unknown numbers.
It’s really one of those only blizzard knows being they are the only ones with the access to the internal data on how it will play out.