Thats not how statistics works. 2% is not equal to two games out of 100.
Everytime you que up you roll an artificial wheel with 100 numbers that decide what you get. You can hit that magic number many times or not that many times depending on the algorithm.
You got 1000 of ARAM games popping up on a server and some of them will hit the magic number by the algorithm. Thats how probability works.
You could compare it to item drop rates in WoW. If an item got 2% drop rate you can either get it on your first kill or on your 200 kill depending on the algorithm.
I’m not a huge fan of The Butcher, but the two all Butch games were the most fun mirror games I’ve played, with all Murky being a close second.
We all have personal preferences, so I have sympathy for people will dislike playing certain heroes as mirrors, as an example, I didn’t enjoy my all Tracer game at all.
The remaining Dev can’t cater to personal taste (I know you’re not arguing otherwise) and since they changed the chance to 1%, I’ve had exactly 2 mirror games.
In an ideal world, there would be an opt-out feature for mirror games, but I think 1% was a fair compromise for those who like mirrors and those who don’t.
I’ve played every hero on the roster to at least level 15, but I’m still atrocious on many heroes and some heroes I just don’t like playing. In “normal” ARAM games, I have been presented with 3 heroes I’m poor at playing, or hate to play. However, this is to be expected in a random mode. When I queue up, I know there is a possibility I’ll have to play a hero I dislike or suck at, the same applies to the very occasional mirror game.
I haven’t. Reading through your reply looks like you’re half-baked on thinking this stuff through.
A dozen is more than 1, so more than 1 game is being played at any given time. It’s not “ambiguous” you’re just drawing bad conclusions from incomplete information. What I ‘mean’ to write is what I wrote. The occurrence of [not you] on the servers is greater than the occurrence of [you] so at any given ‘now’ there is a mirrored match made because the amount of games being played is more than enough for that to happen.
Just because the ‘average’ over 100 games is going to be 2% doesn’t mean they’re spaced out by 50 or 100 games at regular intervals.
What is ‘ambiguous’ is your terms for “in a row”. Cool, you played a game and
a) immediately re-queued
b) had a slight delay before the next game (bio break, etc)
c) had a large break between games, but “in a row”
Fundamentally, it doesn’t matter how many “in a row” there are, nor does it matter if you’re actually honest about the conditions of the streaks: what you “mean” is that you don’t want it at all, but now that you put in ‘work’ you’re that much more convinced of your conclusion that you’re not reading things through because the ‘disagreement’ doesn’t matter to you.
edit note: to rephrase the point, you did “math” for your in-a-row, but to the matching server, it isn’t “in a row”. That’s why I was writing about “dozens” that aren’t you. Multiple “in a row” happen “all the time” because you aren’t a special id for the game, you’re just another match made, and the frequency of games matched can have one played to the next joined be a mirror because that many games are being played regardless of it only being “one” to you.
The odds of someone winnning the lotery is low per capita, but someone still wins regardless
No, I don’t agree with your “solution” at all, but that’s ok, we can have different opinion.
Imho solution would be: " The mode is perfect and I just “don’t want to learn”. This mode in fact is so good it should be separate ARAM mode. So all the people that loves it can play when they want and not randomly."
When I get a hero I don’t like - I play and do my best. (I probably rage quitted 2 times in last 4 years - one was just before my original post, when I got same hero aram twice in a row)
Fun ARAM - when both comps reminds what game was designed in first place - so at least one of healer or tank/bruiser. (regardles of who wins)
5 different range assasins are still not fun TO ME … but those games usually quickly ends so I don’t have issue with it.
“You got nothing at stake in ARAM” - My time. 30 minutes game that doesn’t provide any quality time for me is the biggest waste that can be.
Thats not how statistics works. 2% is not equal to two games out of 100.
Everytime you que up you roll an artificial wheel with 100 numbers that decide what you get. You can hit that magic number many times or not that many times depending on the algorithm.
I’m not talking about statistics, I’m talking about probability. Those are two different things. If you have actual statistics from Blizz then please share. We could all learn a lot if actual stats of claimed 2% MM, but it won’t happen.
A dozen is more than 1, so more than 1 game is being played at any given time.
Cool, so what you are saying is: “if a million ARAM games are being played (remember dozens means any number above 1), guaranteed at least one game is a MM”. Great analysis there.
Just because the ‘average’ over 100 games is going to be 2% doesn’t mean they’re spaced out by 50 or 100 games at regular intervals.
When did I ever say this? Nowhere in my response did I ever say the 2% was spread out in 50 game increments.
The odds of someone winnning the lotery is low per capita, but someone still wins regardless
Yea I get it. I could have been the “lucky one” to hit 3 MM’s in a row. Again, that is why I asked, who else has experienced 3 or more MM’s in a row.
And forget the back-to back games for a minute. I can tell you from my own experience that when it was at a 5% rate, I was getting 1 and every 4 games MM. That is 25%.
And again you miss my original point of trying to understand who else had felt like the 2% or 5% MM was misstated and/or coded wrong. There are certainly other people on these forums who have compiled their own data to show that the number was way higher than stated.
Just a major technical “detail”. If you are asking for other people who also have mirror match back to back, you should also ask for people who don’t have it. If you want to do anything meaningful with the data you would have collected, you need both types of data. In some sense, the question by itself is biased towards confirming that there is something wrong with the 2% mirror matches.
This is not exactly what Xenterex was talking about.
Actually the odds to get 2 mirrored matches in a row are about 0.02x0.02=0.0004 (0.04%). Very unlikely indeed, but still possible. This is what you mean.
But on the other hand, when you just played a mirrorred match, the odds to get another one “start” again with 2%… probability has no memory… This is what his statement was about I believe.
And the chances of 3x back to back to back starts to get off the charts unlikely (0.0008%). I guess I just got lucky.
Roulette has similar odds 1/38 or 2.6% on a straight number pick. Imagine picking a random number on the wheel and hitting it 3 times in a row on 3 spins.
The above roulette scenario still has better odds than a 3x MM in a row since it is still only “2%” vs 2.6%.
Do yourself a favor and read all of my post instead of line-items replies. You are fixating on disagreement and not understanding what I wrote because you’re too busy looking for a strawman instread. I know “your point” and I even spelled it out evwn though you’re trying to claim i”m wrong without actually addressing where I do that.
You think something is “wrong” and you have “proof” but you do not actually share the proof. If you think other people have posted as hig a rate as you think, then cite the specifics as otherwise, I am an example, and my rate is lower than proclaimed. Maybe you’re convinced lying hyperbole has been “truth” — and missing those peoblematic details — but those are examples of people that don’t post specifics, images and have faulty recollection so that they take their lie and think it true.
Cool, you want validation for something “rare”, then the details don’t matter. Otherwise, a number of 1-post anom lie about their experiences and we’ve otherwise had select instances of “extreme” matches people keep claiming happen all the time, and then zero proof of it.
If you want to see if it is a “problem”
then you might want to do a bit more than hearsay.
Now you are just on a holy crusade to somehow prove that I am wrong and sorta pointless to argue with you at this point.
Nothing about what I said in regards to the probabilities were off, and asking if others had experienced the same is certainly warranted considering how many negative posts about MM that I see.
You know what? I’m not really a fan of mirror 5v5s either.
It was fun at first and depending on the hero, it can still be a little entertaining but there alot of heroes where it’s not very fun.
Assuming everyone’s actually trying. Most of the heroes in the morror pool are just not dynamic enough to make for interesting matches. The right way to play any given match tends to be solved in the first few levels and the rest of the match doesn’t have much interesting going on.
By the way if your curious, the list of avaliable heroes can be found on the wikis aram page. TLDR: it’s almost entirely assassins
When not everyone is trying, that more or less decides the match and surely I don’t have to explain why thats lame. Even if you enjoy mirror games these games tend to get the most leavers of any mode and has to hurt your experience. Shouldn’t you atleast want something done about that?
Also the arguement that it only happens 2% of the time almost feels like your admitting it’s not great. If the mode is (or needs to be) that insignificant, whats the problem with changing it?
And then I hope im just reading it wrong and were not using git good as an argument because that would be gatekeepy, rude, and irrelevant.
I think we should atleast be able to vote on weather the lobby wants to do mirrors or not.
entire mode in ARAM is basically a joke but without ARAM, there would almost be no matches in asia now. Qm matche que time went from 30 seconds to 90 seconds over the course of a year.
This mode is very unpopular from what I seen in-game at least. The majority complain and many quit/close the game. I think it should be removed entirely. If it was a good mode it would stand alone as it’s own queue but it clearly does not hold up. I said it was bad before, and it’s still bad now.
consisering your flip/flop on diablo 4, the expression that something is “bad” and you “saying it before” doesn’t mean much.
From what has been conveyed, it isn’t a “majority” that has a problem with it, but rather that they can ruin if for everyone else, once one person leaves, complains, whatever, others tend to follow suit foe that game.
Is that much different from “regular” aram when someone troll-picks, leaves, or says they hate all their choices and feed the rest of the game?
Not for me in my experience /shrug
Select heroes are “less fun” and people canrefuse to learn how to make it “fun”. That’s par the course for the game. It’d be like thinking all the surrender topics are a “majority” when most do just play the game. The rate doesn’t “fix” the issue, but it is a simple change for attempting a compromise that looks to have “compromised” the game
What you have said about what you have said is off. It’s not some magic crusade to point out you being inconsistent for yourself as a source of a perseption issue and if you were “just” checking, that’s all the post would have been.
That’s doesn’t and shouldn’t mean you “can’t” write whatever, but you are faulting stuff beyond what you are willing to read and, as evidenced by this exchange, is more an issue of you doing something to to yourself you’re not willing to consider.
Your math is terrible. The chances of getting back-to-back MM is 2%. So 1 out of every 50 times you get a MM, you’ll get them back-to-back.
The chances of getting 3 MM in a row after getting the first one is 0.0004 (0.04%), which is 1 in 2500, not 1 in 200.
The flaw in your math is you’re only observing the times you see the first MM. Otherwise, you need to provide the total number of ARAM games played (with or without MM) for it to mean anything.
0.02 = 1 in 50
0.0004 = 1 in 2,500
0.00008 = 1 in 125,000
mm, no it’s not. They removed it before and can remove it again. Having them move it down to 2% showed that they are willing to listen to the community in getting it gone. Just has to cause enough grief that people really despise it.
