I know my queue times for QM went up to around an average of four minutes. As Hoku pointed out, the ironic thing was that if I queued as a tank it would usually take much longer, even with the Call of the Nexus active.
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I dont think its forced 50/50 but its not completely fair mm either. I think mmr averaging is the culprit.
The game does sometimes make you carry when you win too much. If the weight it too much then you start loosing. Is it a forced loss, no but its also not a fair loss either. The mm just sucks and the lower population makes it suck even more.
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I’m wondering though. How does LoL or DotA2 handle the matter? Cause, on paper, MMR averaging should be one of the fairest method for MM. But of course not in reality for the reason you mentioned.
Is it exacerbated by the fact that this game is more team oriented than other MOBAs, lacking solo hard carry potential? If MMR averaging is making this game worse (albeit, only applied in QM if I’m not mistaken), what’s the solution, how do we approach differently? I don’t think we have a clear cut answer for this.
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Also to nit pick about your equation and results. Your count for the games in a streak cannot be accurate. Typically, in the extreme case as a streak of 1 (yes a streak of 1!), you would count ~50 games which are in a streak but it is necessarily 100 of them. I did a brute force approach with a numerical simulation (see below).
So globally, it does not change your point, actually it even reinforce it.
But just to be sure with your own data, did you really count only the games that were in a 5+ streak or was it a streak in a general meaning, like 3+ maybe. Basically, did you count the same thing that you compute theoretically? I guess it was the case since you seem to be quite cautious about the maths.
Other already said that but HotS is not a perfect flip coin, even if the match maker were to be perfect and even you were to play exactly always the same there are still 9 other randoms to that heavily screw the win chance. But all in all, since we are talking about probability, this should kind of sort out by itself given a high enough number of games for the 9 other randoms, not for your own performance though (Edit: hum not sure actually, need to think more about that).
Also to nit pick about your data, I don’t know how long is your data. You also need to take into account the variance around the mean number of games in a streak.
But generally, I don’t rely on memory for this kind of analysis, because well memory is no good for analysis.
(Matlab) numerical experiments for 100 flip coins: number of 5+ streaks ~3.2; number of games in 5+ streaks ~19
clear all
close all
n = 1e6; % Number of games
nStreak = 5; % What is considered to be a streak
x = randi(2,n,1) - 1; % Random of 0 or 1
% x = 1 means a win and x = 0 means a loss
winStreak = 0;
gameInWinStreak = 0;
lossStreak = 0;
gameInLossStreak = 0;
winCounter = 0;
lossCounter = 0;
for idx = 1:n
if x(idx) == 1
winCounter = winCounter + 1;
if lossCounter >= nStreak
lossStreak = lossStreak + 1;
gameInLossStreak = gameInLossStreak + lossCounter;
end
lossCounter = 0;
else
lossCounter = lossCounter + 1;
if winCounter >= nStreak
winStreak = winStreak + 1;
gameInWinStreak = gameInWinStreak + winCounter;
end
winCounter = 0;
end
end
(lossStreak + winStreak) * 100/n
(gameInWinStreak + gameInLossStreak) * 100/n
This answers everything. As much as we believe sometimes the games against us, it is indeed just RNG
People always conclude the game is rigged and its made only to force lose him back to 50% casue he has won too many games.
How can peope who dont even work for Blizzard know how the system works other then coming up with a biasd conclution that is based on his own feelings.
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The very same people will also post how they see 5 stacks of smurfs with a 95% winrate in QM. I guess the forced 50% only works on them?
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true balance is an illusion
ironically more common to have 50% around gold/plat than anywhere else
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