The Game is Mostly Luck, But Skill is Still Important

I think you are the one misinterpreting what you are reading. I don’t even want to argue it anymore because you keep taking everything and changing the argument to prove your own points when nobody is arguing against it in the first place.

This doesn’t even make sense.
If my initial opinion was that at high ranks where players don’t make mistakes and play the each matchup optimally then it would infer that RNG is is the greater factor compared to skill at determining the outcome-- such as in top 20. I was literally just agreeing with what Yellowsnovv said, like:

Lastly, I think the reason Altair would have you on ignore Carnivore is about to be the exact same reason why I will too, because this is just annoying. The argument here doesn’t even make sense it’s all just semantics and red herrings.

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Absolutely nothing in that yellovvsnovv quote talks about higher ranks being more sensitive to RNG; you just see what you want to see; that’s a problem you have to solve on your own.

You insist that the RNG behaves differently on your rank; it does not; it’s only relevant if your MMR is very refined so that your opponents are similarly skilled so then skill is less apparent.

If you put people on ignore because “they are right but I’m an “expert” so I’m annoyed” like what that person stated above: that’s another problem you have to solve yourself.

Spoilers: The answer is no.

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The theory seems to make sense until you watch a match like Hunterace vs Viper in the world finals

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That’s the whole thing, I am NOT saying RNG itself behaves differently at higher ranks. That is why I’m getting so annoyed with you because you keep repeating this and then I have to keep saying that I don’t believe that nor did I ever say it in the first place.

Your whole argument this entire time is based on me saying something that I never said nor cared about in the first place so the entire time you repeat yourself, I say no I don’t believe that, you repeat it again with different words and I say no again. It really is legitimately annoying for me.
It has nothing to do with some sort of “I’m the expert” nonsense trait you keep insisting on me, it is all to do with you arguing about semantics with the way Altair typed something even though he clearly stated the meaning behind it later, and the fact that you keep arguing I believe something that I never said and I don’t believe.

Carnivore and Qwark, please go into the Hearthstone app and tell me how many Ranked wins you have. Should be in the journal.

I’m not trying to get your rank here, I’m trying to gauge how many games you’ve played, total, over the lifetime of your account.

I have 7,516 on this account however on my old account I had about 3,500. Altogether, I would estimate around 11,000 ranked wins over my Hearthstone tenure.

That must mean they are right.

Okay.

Your rank might reset every month, but your hidden MMR never resets. That means that it never has. And matchmaking is not by rank, it’s by MMR. So if you think you going on 15-3 win streak is going to have any significant effect on what kind of players you get matched against, before and after… :joy: no. 18 games of new evidence vs ~15,000 games of old evidence is a tiny drop in a very deep bucket. Blizzard already knows your skill level very deeply.

Which is why when Carnivore said

↑ this is ridiculous. “Unrefined MMR” is a thing that only exists for very new players. Pretty much every single person actually reading this has over 1000 wins, which means that the MMR system knows almost exactly how skilled you are, and matches you against opponents who are almost exactly equal in skill as you are, every game. Carnivore is deeply delusional on this topic because he doesn’t want to believe that MMR is valid, and this desire powers his confirmation bias.

And of course, when the skill difference between players has been systematically eliminated, as it has been, then games are decided almost entirely by luck. Matchmaking by skill means deciding games by luck in the game, as opposed to by luck in the matchmaker then by skill in the game.

If RNG is fair then RNG is just empty content. For example, if the game is decided entirely by skill, then one game averages to one full skill game. If the game is 80% luck 20% skill, then if you play 5 games, that averages to one game fully decided by skill and four games that are just coin flips — if RNG is fair you’ll win two and lose two, so for leaderboard purposes it’s just the skill games that matter. Skill still determines who wins, luck doesn’t matter in the long run.

So one game at 100% skill and 5 games at 20% skill average the same outcomes. What’s the big difference? Time. It takes a lot longer to play five games than one. The more the game is luck based, the longer the “long run” that it takes to make the luck not matter. And that can indeed feel rough if you have a life and can only afford to play casually with your time commitment.

That’s just insane logic. That was a SIDENOTE on the main thing I was saying; if they play too little then their MMR has not developed enough yet;

unless you think if someone played only 1 Hearthstone game in their entire life has now a refined MMR.

It seems you wanted to support your friends and you went on a vomit of personal attacks without any support behind them.

PS You’re also wrong at another practical level; I may stop ranking seriously for the month and start doing achievements and drop my MMR that way; I literally did that myself this month.

Yes I agree. I don’t get the vomit of personal attacks when you conclude on the only logical thing here. I was debating with someone saying “I’m highly ranked hence RNG is a more important factor”; it is not; on low ranks it’s still the same factor (it’s just that the skill of the two opponents is usually lower).

Wrong, just wrong. Read my original post again, I said those games were on the EU server with fresh mmr where I had never played a single game before. Your entire argument after the very first sentence is invalid. Normally I like you Scrotie but you and Carnivore are taking a huge L here.

He was referring to Luck being more imprtant factor to skill, not high skill players have more of luck factor then low skill have luck as a factor

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The experience of “fresh MMR” players is completely irrelevant to your main account and the mains of everyone reading this.

I swear you guys are reading a completely different topic than what I wrote. Where did I say that:

Please quote me where I said this once in my entire post or any of my comments. I never said once it had an effect on the caliber of players I was matched against.

To reiterate my immediate previous post, the problem with your argument is not on whether the experience of “fresh MMR” accounts is true or false. It is that it doesn’t matter, at all. So we change the topic to things that do matter.

The “importance of RNG” is only a measure of how random the game was. The randomness of a mechanic (say Discover or shuffling a board or dropping Yogg spells) is the same level between 2 specific opponents at 1 point in time for 1 single game no matter the skill or the rank because they are together in that 1 match (which makes it a zero-sum-game given a sum of enough games (since it’s always a common level of randomness between opponents per single game)).

If you do more mistakes because of lower skill it didn’t lower the randomness; it might even INCREASE it (skilled players know more tricks to avoid unnecessary RNG); but for the sake of argument let’s assume decks that don’t cause that easily.

The entire reason I brought up the fresh mmr matches on the EU server in my post was to illustrate that even against new players with unoptimized decks I was able to lose to RNG with the “Yogg in the Box” scenario. The point was to strengthen my argument that RNG matters more than skill, which is the actual topic of my post.

You actually expect me to care about players complaining about Yogg?

Honestly I’m just done responding to any of this. You and Carnivore are so similar in that you argue for the sake of arguing and take what others say and modify it to fit your own arguments, you couldn’t even quote me once saying the thing you called me out on after I confronted you about it. Bye.

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Scr0tieMcB might have unreasonably personally attacked me out of nowhere, but he at least said in the end the most logical thing in here: “given enough games then the RNG diminishes in importance”(paraphrased).

Your main thing in here is saying “on my high rank the RNG is more brutal than on other ranks”(paraphrased); it’s not; given enough games then the RNG becomes a zero sum game because it’s a common variable.

The rank/skill is irrelevant because even if you do mistakes it’s not like you changed the RNG.

In fact if you do mistakes you may increase randomness by doing more RNG-prone plays.

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