# Nat Pagle drawing cards

Nat’s text “50% chance to draw an extra card.” triggers 100% of the time.

I do hope that your claim is based on more the one or two games.

Last time there was an issue with Pagle, it took few thousand recorded instances to make a proper statistical analysis to prove the issue existed. So if you are making a claim like this, you better show your proof of it as well.

I haven’t tested this but yesterday my opponent played this card and I thought it was weird. Then he copied it and both of them every turn would trigger the card draw. Could have been a coincidence but that’s what I saw

Yup. One with a 1 in 4 chance of happening. Not even unlikely.

They were both triggering every time for 4 turn straight. Not impossible I just thought it was weird but I used it to burn his card so I didn’t care.

I had the same thing happen, 4 turns straight, both Nats triggered every time. That will happen less than 1/200 times. I find it more likely that it’s coded to be 50% per Nat, so having two makes it 100%.

Trogg and I tested this out. We put 7 Nat Pagles on the board for each player. Got 36 consecutive draws total before one of us died.

Now, an outcome that only has a one in sixty eight billion chance of occurring might be enough to convince some that something is awry, but we know the Bug Report community here is skeptical about reports that RNG is wrong. So we each set up 6 Pagles and a Violet Illusionist and passed the turn back and forth until we had upwards of 200 stacks of fatigue and the game got bored and killed us.

Surprisingly, there were cases where Nat failed to trigger. 29 in total. Out of 418. Wolfram Alpha tells me that the chance of flipping a coin 418 times and getting at least 389 heads is roughly 1.44*10^88, which should be enough to suggest the card might not be working correctly. It also puts the miss rate at roughly 7%. I’d guess the actual chance of him missing is 5%, a tenth of what it should be.

Also he wasn’t saying “Ha, caught one!”

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