well sadly the odds are not public and there’s one rule that lacks clarity
not sure if that is just to refer to the guarantee of having at least one synergistic card or if it actually means that on top of the guarantee you are also most likely to hit additional ones
we can give it a try though, we won’t have the correct result but we may have a near estimate
The onlyilne library has been updated with timewarp minions but it’s hard to sort the cards correctly (the spells are counted as minions and there’s no filter on their chronum cost)
I wont add the layer of minions with a type but with a generic effect that may not be considered as typed (as seen in the rules)
For the minor timewarp there are
- 15 neutral, 8-1, 7-2
- 6 undead, 6-2 (100%)
- 5 demons, 1-1, 4-2 (80%)
- 6 murlocs, 2-1, 4-2 (67%)
- 5 quilboards, 2-1, 3-2 (60%)
- 5 naga, 2-1, 3-2 (60%)
- 6 mechs, 3-1, 3-2 (50%)
- 4 dragons, 2-1, 2-2 (50%)
- 7 beasts, 4-1, 3-2 (43%)
- 5 pirates, 3-1, 2-2 (40%)
- 7 elementals, 5-1, 2-2 (29%)
For the major timewarp there are
- 20 neutral, 11-1, 9-2
- including 2 2-costs for menagerie (I only count theotar here unlike dual types that I count in both types)
- +Deios whose cost isn’t displayed on the library
- +one 1-cost much rarer than the others
- 7 pirates, 1-1, 6-2 (86%)
- 8 murlocs, 2-1, 6-2 (75%)
- 7 dragons, 2-1, 5-2 (71%)
- 7 quilboars, 2-1, 5-2 (71%)
- 7 undead, 2-1, 5-2 (71%)
- 10 beasts, 3-1, 7-2 (70%)
- 7 mechs, 3-1, 4-2 (57%)
- 7 demons 3-1, 4-2 (57%)
- 8 elementals, 4-1, 4-2 (50%)
- 7 naga, 4-1, 3-2 (43%)
One thing is clear : it’s a mess since there’s no parity on how many cards there are at each tier and cost
From there I think the only way it works is : first they select a card from your type to put in the shop, then the other cards are selected randomly
Which means the only way you’re guaranteed a 2-cost of your tribe is by playing undead
Dragon it’s a coinflip, elemental gives the worst odds while demons gives the second best ones
edit : I’ve sorted the lists and added the odds of having a 2-cost on your guaranteed card
Remember that some minions that I sorted in a type may not actually have one internally. Like in my first example of earlier https://ibb.co/NnnpTbF3 It’s theorically impossible to have more than one minion of a different type, but this murloc has a neutral effect so in reality it’s in the neutral pool
So depending of your tribe, you can have 100% chance to get a 2-cost, if you play undead, or if you play elem
71% chance of not hitting a 2 with the guaranteed one, then (37/39)*(36/38)=90% that your random 2-costs are not elementals, which means that if your main tribe is elemental you only have 36% chance of being offered a 2-cost, if the odds are the same for all cards past your guaranteed one (which they are not supposed to be since you’re supposedly guaranteed to not be offered than more than 1 minion of a different type but that’s too much to process, so at best it may be 40%)