Imbue Plush Hunter's Meta Warp score is 83%

Multiplayer Discussion
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The situation on the ladder is unique in a way which lets us determine the meta warp score quite easily, because all the variables except one was left unchanged - that one being, Imbue Hunter OTK is broken.

Playrate of Imbue Hunter before the patch - 1,69%
Playrate of Imbue Hunter after the patch - 19,86%

Playrate of Imbue Druid before the patch - 4,49%
Playrate of Imbue Druid after the patch - 20%

Meta Warp score = (Playrate of Imbue Druid’ - Playrate of Imbue Druid)/(Playrate of Imbue Hunter’ - Playrate of Imbue Hunter)’ = 15.5 / 18,17 = 0,8287 ~ 83%

Being one of the most consistent counters to the deck, Imbue Druid grew in popularity for 4.5 times simply because of how strong Imbue Hunter is.

For the people with slightly less dominant cognitive skills, it’s this increase of hunter counters on the ladder by factor of almost 5 times coupled with the increased frequency of Hunter mirrors for 20% that lead to the deck’s winrate being 50.4%

It’s actually not balanced at all, and that’s visible from the Meta Warp score. I have never seen something as warping as this in a way that makes it so easy to calculate. A truly unique situation on the ladder. It’s as if they’re purposefully performing A/B testing and have to keep all the other variables unchanged to get clear data untainted by other variables changing.

At this point it becomes clear to me, that there are no devs. Balance changes are done by an AI.

EDIT: I calculate meta warp scores every meta using various formulas and methods, but this is the only time I’ve ever seen such a pure case of meta warping, where all the other variables that could impact it remain unchanged. Ofc, this is still just a correlation factor, so it doesn’t prove causation, but when you see that other things are left unchanged, and when you quickly discount some confounding factors, the only conclusion you can make is that this, indeed, a meta warp score.

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Funny enough, I saw only 1 Plush hunter since I hit legend, plenty of Imbue druid though. Yeah, new mini set totally didn’t warp the meta

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People are giving the deck up, not much point in playing a 50% winrate deck

But as it stands, on hsguru live, still 20% of all top 1k players play that deck, 20% play Imbue Druid and 20% play Ash Rogue

It’s not a weird thing to have RPS metas with 3 dominant decks in top legend, but 60% of ALL top 1k on just 3 decks, I think this is something new.

Closest to this I can remember is when Casino Mage had between 35 and 45% playrate in top 1k. Or yeah, control Warrior also had as much a year ago

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Is “meta warp score” a label to impress people? It’s not showing any meta warping and it’s not a percentage. You calculated the ratio of a specific difference of percentages of 2 archetypes.

The robot says: Calling it a ‘meta warp score’ sounds like it’s trying to sound more analytical than it is. It’s not a percentage, and it doesn’t measure how much the meta is actually warped. All you did was compare how much one archetype’s playrate increased compared to another’s. That tells us nothing about impact on the meta overall—just that both got more popular, and one did so a bit more.

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Well, looks like you don’t know how to properly use the robot. You had to give him all the other details I have given you in this thread:

a) the fact that nothing else changed, so the changes here reflect the Imbue Hunter’s domination, and
b) the fact that a % is a ratio, so when you get a ratio of two %, it’s still a ratio, and as any ratio, can be shown via %

You are not discrediting me, just yourself and chatgpt.

EDIT:

Proof a) Ashamane Rogue had 19,8% playrate before the patch, exactly the same as after, so other archetypes have NOT changed their playrates

Proof b) 3/5 is a fraction, and can be portrayed as 3 is 60% of 5. I repeat, any ratio is a percentage. Do not embarass yourself.

This IS the meta warp score, because it’s precisely telling you that an archetype which counters a deck suddenly increased playrate from 4.5 to 20% on the account of it being the only known counter to Imbue Hunter, whose playrate also suddenly changed a lot because it’s broken.

It doesn’t get much purer than this. This is science, my dear friend. The ONLY real science, where you keep all the variables unchanged except the one you’re trying to track.

EDIT 2: Actually, to remain 100% scientific, I have to add that this is just a correlation, so it does not prove causation. With that said, it’s pretty much the only possible explanation, so…

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Like talking seriously…

There are decks to counter plush Hunter but as a gamer i Just feel like stopping with the game instead.
Why take the effort when blizzard don’t even let people have meaningfull disruption?

Just for they get It as Green light to create another OTK that is even faster?

I not even talking about Crazy stuff like theotar.

Can someone say why Far watch POST isn’t a regular card in the core set for example.

That would be already enough to punish decks who wanna Just not fight for board like that.

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I agree with the conclusion that hunter is warping the meta, but I dont like the way you tried to calculate it.

Your calculation is based on the assumption that druids popularity is only due to 1 factor, that it counters hunter. It doesnt adjust for other factors, like people enjoying that archetype.

Also your calculation doesnt include other decks beong played to counter hunter like rogue.

Im not really sure how you would account for people playing decks like druid for other reasons, but the assumption is carrying a little too much weight in the maths still lol

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And if you take a look at the change of the winrates, you will have to conclude the same. A change from 4,5 to 20% playrate is not a small change. It’s certainly not explainable by 1 new card which not everyone can even afford to play. It’s almost literally the exact same deck as it has been, so no, 5x change in playrate is not explainable any other way.

And especially not considering that Druid is one of the only known counters. It would certainly be a fun coincidence, but coincidence it is not.

For some reason, Rogue’s playrate hasn’t changed in the slightest. It was 19.x prepatch, it’s 19.x now, so I can’t use it in the calculation when it’s obvious nothing at all made an impact on it. As usual, Rogue is played by the fans of the playstyle, no matter what the meta looks like.

It is common knowledge that, especially in top 1k, it’s next to impossible that Rogue isn’t in the top 3 classes by playrate. Some people just love the class. I didn’t even know it’s countering Hunter that much. It should be even stronger than Imbue Druid against it. Why didn’t I know it? Because noone cares!! Either you play Rogue no matter what, or you don’t play Rogue, no matter what

I love it how you just used your feelings/intuition to counter something I really took the time to think about and calculate, lol xD WIthout even offering a better option or concrete examples of what else should be included xD

As I said, I do this calculation every month, but it’s never this easy as it is now, because for some weird reason, every other variable is mostly unchanged, so this is pure correlation

If you engaged a statistician to calculate it more precisely, I don’t think it’s going to vary too much

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I didn’t feed it lies presented as facts, the meta always changes. Also I never mentioned that it’s wrong to make a ratio of percentages because I know some math so it was a strawman to say I called that wrong.

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I can’t believe that the first post I’ve read from you after unblocking you (after months and months of block) is this - you accusing me of lies xD

It’s like, dude, get over yourself. There’s literally stats on VS from before, stats on hs guru from today, feel free to check. Nothing substantial changed in the meta. Ashamane Rogue had 19.8% playrate before the patch, has the same 19.8% after the patch. Imbue Hunter snowballed from 2% to 19%, and Imbue Druid, as a counter pick, snowballed from 4.5 to 20%. End of discussion.

So who’s lying? Still think it’s me?

Umm, bro, you’re pretty talented at this - screwing up - so you’re going back on ignore.

Shame.

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Learn to think. I criticize the kind of ratio you use there, not that the ratio was on percentages.

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Oh boy…someone forgot their therapy today, I see

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Druid got new cards for the archetype which is another explanation for a rise in popularity

I appreciate the effort i just want you to be aware that any calculation like this will inevitably contain some assumptions. You just have to try and make a calculation that either accounts for them or one that limits the assumptions to a minimum

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1 new card, as far as I know? At least that’s how much I changed - just the legendary location

Do you really think that legendary location explains any changes in playrate? I mean, certainly it could be a plausible possibility, but then why didn’t Rogue playrate change? She also got some new toys to play with. I for one can tell you that I couldn’t care less about the location. I play on NA without even noticing it. In fact, sometimes I feel awkward while playing it. I for sure only picked it up because it counters Imbue Hunter.

And then, again, we’re simply reminded that Druid has a 60% winrate against the most played, most broken deck - Imbue Hunter, which is obviously explaining the change in playrates.

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3 cards. 1/2 give rush(which is the most important one because it allows the deck to swing board), 3 mana draw 2 minion and the location.

I also edited my last post. Every calculation like this based of a hypothesis includes assumptions. Its important to be aware of that so you can either account for them or avoid too many because variables and what not

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Well yeah, all of those are in the deck, I forgot xD Oopsies xD

That’s definitely carrying a small portion of the uprise in its playrate, as without it, the deck was weaker, hence, even more boring than usually, so yeah

Still, hmm, from 4.5 to 20%? Would enough people even try the deck if it didn’t counter hunter? Don’t know, not really relevant, but yeah, the warp score is definitely a bit lower in that case

Hard to try to estimate how much, so I won’t bother

I’m very much aware of that, and I don’t see how you aren’t

I always post assumptions I use when posting any conclusions, which is why my posts ARE quite big. I’m afraid absolutely noone else on the forum does, so I find it ironic and slightly annoying to be called out like this

I also admit when I’m caught to be wrong, unlike 95% of the forum, which is also starting to get on my nerves. But yeah, I certainly prefer to be caught and admit than to be living in a delusion, so thank you for this :slight_smile:

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I also didnt offer an alternative because you would need more data to adjust your calculation. Like a survey of druid players to understand the reason they chose that deck for example to subtract that portion of the 20% out.

I agree it warps the meta. You could say zarimi does too. They both put a cap of how late a game can go.

I would say including average turn time would help the maths, but average turn time is down across the board anyways and that might just add more assumptions than it removes. Im not an expert in statistics either, so anyone with statistical analysis experience could be more helpful in adjusting your formula.

Im brainstorming here to try and be more productive at least. Lol. If we ask “how does it warp the meta?” It could point to other data that is available to measure

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I see no need, I’m analyzing top 1k, not Diamond-Legend, so I can simply ask myself why I am or am not playing the deck to get the answer. It’s logical, because (shocking!) top 1k think with their brains, not their emotions

I didn’t play Imbue druid before the patch, but I’m playing it now, because it’s the only counter to Hunter besides Rogue that I don’t hate playing (to say I enjoy any of those two would be a lie)

Also there comes a time in your life when you need actionable decisions, and when the wrong decisions aren’t punished as hard as missed chances. This game is one such an example. It’s pretty clear what caused the Imbue Druid to get a huge increase in playrate. It’s logical, it’s more probable, therefore, it’s actionable intel.

We’d all do good if we gave up seeking for perfection and started being satisfied with “good enough”, and I believe this intel is “good enough”, but as usual, far from perfect.

We can more precisely do the same thing I did with druid

Compare the changes in winrates of ALL archetypes and calculate the net total change, but it would be painstaking, and wouldn’t much change the result

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It’s actually the sheer volume of OTK decks that exist in the overall meta that is what is warping the game. Just because one does it faster than the rest doesn’t excuse the existence of those other decks. So they nerf Plush hunter and the next one in line takes over and we are back to square one again.

They clearly want games to be over in under 5 minutes to appease the mobile market. So the player base either accepts that or moves on. To a lesser extent they did the same thing this season in BG’s by automating the scaling by making Drakkari the center piece instead of Brann.

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Imbue druid also has an inevitably factor that makes it strong in other matchups other than hunter. I would say the faster rogue decks struggle vs decks that druid can out value. Im sure that plays a factor.

This is an example that preferences still play a role at top 1k

Im just saying that putting an 83% on its meta warping factor feels a bit arbitrary when there are plenty of other reasons people are playing druid. Its a new deck that you can win with, which is a fairly short list at the moment.

I agree with you that hunter warps the meta.
I just think the 83% number is inaccurate without more data, which in all fairness, most of isnt readily available.