Hunter draw probability questions

Multiplayer Discussion
1

I have two statistics questions for anyone who knows the formulas. What is the probability of these occurrences. I’m dumbfounded by the consistency. help me understand. Assume hard mulligan on all.

  1. Given no-dupe hunter, [Dwarven Sharpshooter] played on turn 1 eleven games in a row.
  • I assume this is two occurrence rates, being the chance to encounter eleven highlander hunters in a row and the chance for the draw. Not eleven games in a row, just hunter encounters.
  1. [Explosive Trap] playable on turn 2.
  2. [Zixor Prime] playable by turn six.
  • Make it simple, so assume only the draw chance of the first and second Zixor.
  1. [Dragonbane] hitting face when the opponent has full board.
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2

just google a probability calculator for any existing physical card game and use it to calculate

3

12.5%

4

With all those demands I am going to have to become a math major to figure that one out. To guess I will say 1 in eleventy million

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5

Probably lower odds than someone lying about eleven hunters in a row pulling those exact things off because they’re salty and want to vent through exaggeration.

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6

using such probability calculator:

  1. 13,33% per game going 1st, 16,67% per game going 2nd
  2. 16,67% per game going 1st, 20,00% per game going 2nd
  3. 30.00% per game going 1st, 33,33% per game going 2nd
  4. 12,5%

now you know the basic probability for each scenario, now you can do the math for whatever combination you want.

do note that you yourself have to adjust the probability calculations for every search and draw card etc, we wont do that for you.

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7

actually a good attempt ngl. he has deliberately choosen a very specific scenario that has to be repeated in the exactly same way, which ofc will yield a small probability.

for those interested: the chance that the specific scenario happends once is 16 in 10000 or 0,16%, enough to happend a few times per day in hearthstone.

for the absurd request that it should happend the exact same way 11 times in a row then you have the neat probability of 1.91902544×10^−42%

edit: OP will likely claim next that the system is rigged and that he got sacked. however, the probability is useless for drawing conclusions as the opponents plays are affected by what OP plays.

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8

I suppose that would seem like a reasonable assumption to some. That was not my intent here. Some people win the lottery. It happens every week. I simply wanted clarification, because I was -

9

I just realized your name is that blue stuff we used to use to hang stuff on walls. I love that stuff. You get +1 on your post for good name.

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