This is clearly a troll. Zero post count, makes inflammatory statement and disappears without a trace.
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No, it’s not pure luck. It’s more like the more packs and solo stories you buy, the better change you will get the “elite” or “meta” cards and can build the unbeatable deck.
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You statement is 100% wrong.
IF you would post something like:
“In the current meta, where players are playing meta decks (I would say its safe to say like 99% of playerbase), the matchup luck and draw luck dictates the winrate way more than anything else. Decision making or “skill” has a minor impact compared to matchup and draw luck.”
Or something like that, I would definitely give you +1 and call it 100% right.
The 2nd part of your sentence - yeah. I guess its safe to say its true. Unless these self-proclaimed pro players would have a favourable matchup and/or better card draw luck in majority of the games, I do not see a way the current meta decks would allow them to beat “average” player consistently.
Though I have to ask - is it that bad for a casual game? While I do not like the crap HS is turned to, I have to ask myself - is it really that horrible to allow average or below average players smash veterans if the luck is on their side?
Except for the fact that there are several decks in the current meta which perform better the longer someone has been playing it. If the performance of meta decks was entirely about draw and matchup, you wouldn’t see this.
What decks are you talking about? Pretty much anything in meta seems kinda straightforward to me. Though maybe I have missed some, I wasnt paying much attention these few days to meta state.
Based on the latest episode of the Vicious Syndicate podcast,* you have Miracle Rogue, Cyclone Mage, Control/Galakrond Priest, Soul Demon Hunter, and Aggro Rogue.
*Link: https://www.vicioussyndicate.com/vs-data-reaper-podcast-episode-13/
I wasnt playing Soul Demon Hunter at all thus I wasnt even watching players playing it.
Though other decks doesnt seem to me to be affected by your play alone in any significant way compared to matchup and your/opponents card draw rng.
Especially Cyclone mage (deck I am playing right now) seems kinda heavily affected by mine/opponents luck on draw. Horrible draw (no essential cards) vs. good draw of my opponent = defeat early. Great draw (early combo) vs. not so good draw of my opponent = easy early win.
Also other decks seems to follow that rule more or less = worse draw luck than your opponent = serious disadvantage you can balance only in very limited way by your play (depends on matchup and current power play)
All the decks I listed perform better the more experience their pilots have with it. That’s what the data show the VS folks. I don’t see how that could happen if winrates are primarily a matter of matchup/draw RNG. More importantly, I don’t see how that could happen only with some decks and not all decks.
Dunno, maybe you have a deeper insight into the current meta than the guys poring over a quarter of a million games last week. Even the best analyst can miss things in the data from time to time. At the same time, if I have to choose between a position based on data vs. a position based on personal opinion, I’m gonna go with the data. Particularly when the personal opinion, well informed as it may be, comes from someone who has a pretty clear bias against the current state of Hearthstone.
I am not saying you cannot get better. I mean you should. Even in something like pee contest you can get better (like do not forget to take off your pants, aim at the right direction etc.).
Though I am more interested what significance has your decision making in a match compared to matchup and/or card draw luck of you/your opponent. To me it seems minor at best.
From what I have seen from so-called pros I havent seen anything that would show me they have improved in any significant way.
For example what I have seen on streams:
cyclone mage vs. guardian druid. Early Guardian Animals or Twilight Runner. With Devolving Misiles drawn = easy. Without Devolving Misiles = serious problem.
Cyclone vs. Bomb Warrior = warrior able to draw all the key cards (Cache into Wrenchcalibur into Upgrade into Cutting Class) = game over. Warrior struggle to find weapons while you can work on your combo = winrate increase.
etc. etc.
I am not saying I am 100% right but I have seen nothing that would show me I am 100% wrong.
If both have equally strong meta decks, I would wager that out of a best of 5 the ‘best player’ is much more likely to win.
Occasionally a lost game is chalked up to a terrible draw and/or starting hand but over time, skill will always show itself.
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You know, after watching streamers the last few days it seems most of them run about a 60%-65% win rate this guy is about spot on with everything he has said.
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Seems like he will never touch the forums again.
Standard right now in its current form. The cards are just so OP the game has become more luck than anything else. If you can craft a deck that is actually good and get to legend with it everyone will just copy you. A few of them will get to legend easy if the deck is good. The deck will become known though because everyone is playing it. Soon people will know the deck know how to play against it lowering the decks win rate.
I think they just play more.
That would not affect winrate. Winrate is winrate.
And I personally don’t have time to play many games and having a high personal winrate Helps me reach legend in fewer games.