DR#227 Skill & Polarization supplement

Multiplayer Discussion
1

Top 1000 Legend Polarization
Overall polarization is 15.19 (58-42) with 65% of the meta having sufficient matchup data. This is up from 14.30 (57-43) last week.

Control Warrior 29.71 (65-35) +7.71
Beast Druid 20.04 (60-40) -0.02
Owl Warlock 16.33 (58-42)
Shadow Priest 14.80 (57-43)
Burn Shaman 12.26 (56-44) -0.64
Ramp Druid 11.15 (55-45) +0.69
Miracle Priest 7.14 (54-46) -0.89

Overall Legend Polarization
Overall polarization is 13.98 (57-43) with 65% of the meta having sufficient matchup data. This is up from 11.73 (56-44) last week.

Control Warrior 22.94 (61-39) +0.94
Taunt Druid 20.31 (60-40) +3.45
Beast Druid 16.84 (58-42) +2.32
Quest Hunter 16.31 (58-42) +2.09
Shadow Priest 14.96 (57-43) +1.35
Face Hunter 14.82 (57-43)
Burn Shaman 12.79 (56-44) +3.78
Ramp Druid 12.72 (56-44) +3.87
Quest Rogue 10.62 (55-45)
Buff Paladin 10.13 (55-45)
Amulet Mage 8.15 (54-46) +4.75
Miracle Priest 6.39 (53-47)

Diamond 4-1 Polarization
Overall polarization is 13.30 (57-43) with 71% of the meta having sufficient matchup data. This is down from 14.76 (57-43) last week.

Control Warrior 25.34 (62-38) +0.64
Taunt Druid 17.47 (59-41) -0.86
Quest Hunter 17.11 (58-42) -0.59
Beast Druid 15.89 (58-42) -0.21
Ramp Druid 14.25 (57-43) -0.51
Burn Shaman 13.41 (57-43) -0.98
Owl Warlock 12.84 (57-43)
Shadow Priest 12.58 (56-44) -0.90
Wildfire Mage 12.10 (56-44) -0.52
Bolner Shaman 12.01 (56-44)
Buff Paladin 11.81 (56-44) -1.35
Face Hunter 10.41 (56-44) -2.56
Quest Rogue 10.38 (55-45) -0.25
Amulet Mage 8.29 (54-46) -0.50
Miracle Priest 6.69 (53-47)

Skill Rating Matchup Charts
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LhXKtGmmyET3L5pgBBCSmcaIFEN28XQLthBsOhHdrS0/edit?usp=drivesdk

Overall Skill Rating by Archetype
The first number is skill rating and the second is the difference since last week.

Skill Rating meaning reminder

Skill Rating is not a (direct) measure of the skill of people piloting a certain deck. Skill Rating is a measure of

  1. the opportunities a deck gives its pilot for skillful play
  2. that have a meaningful impact on winrate
  3. given the context of the current meta
  4. relative to the opportunities the opponent receives.

A negative score doesn’t indicate that, as pilots increase in skill, they pilot their own decks worse. It indicates that, as both player and opponent increase in skill, opponents get more opportunities for skillful play than players do.

Archetype, Class, T1KL skill, Diff
Mozaki Mage +5.6% +0.72%
Boar Priest +5.18%
Quest DH +4.79% -0.43%
Control Warrior +2.09% -0.06%
Owl Warlock +1.4% +1.02%
Control Warlock +1.35% +0.44%
Fel DH +1.14% -0.09%
Shadow Priest +1.08% +0.71%
Miracle Priest +0.79% -1.26%
Amulet Mage +0.56% +0.18%
Quest Priest +0.34% +0.34%
Big Priest +0.26% +0.51%
Dragon Priest +0.16% +0.13%
Bolner Shaman +0.1% -0.37%
Wildfire Mage -0.31% -0.2%
Taunt Druid -0.37% +0.65%
Face Hunter -0.39% +0.43%
Quest Shaman -0.75% +0.5%
Elemental Shaman -1.43% +0.24%
Burn Shaman -2.05% -0.06%
Ramp Druid -2.12% -0.52%
Buff Paladin -2.28% -2.06%
Beast Druid -2.59% -0.04%
Hand Warlock -3.12% -0.95%
Big Beast Hunter -3.13%
Quest Rogue -4.08% +0.1%
Quest Hunter -4.8% -0.28%
Deathrattle DH -5.38% -0.22%
Quest Warrior -5.42% -0.18%
Libram Paladin -6.12% -0.56%

Commentary
As time goes on, Control Warrior becomes even more polarizing. This is true even in Diamond were polarization is down slightly from last week. If this continues after rotation, Blizzard is going to need to do something about it.

Owl Warlock might not have high popularity, but it’s having a good time. A skilled player can dramatically increase their winrate with the deck against aggro Druids and Control Warrior, two decks that have increased in popularity since last week in the high ranks. Since those decks are very polarizing, these Owl Warlocks are doing the (Dark?) Lord’s work as far as I’m concerned.

Boar Priest seems to be an unusually high skill cap deck. This means it might actually not be a meme in the hands of an exceptionally skilled pilot. That’s pretty cool. If my username doesn’t give it away, I’m partial to weapons referenced in South Park episodes. I hope the Boars continue to do well.

2

That control warrior is the only culprit to his own polarization is really not big news.
Since the old days many players already told that but it’s good to get data on it.

It’s fair to tell that combo decks not interact as much as people would like but when we come down to polarization the recent Control decks are king.

It’s not opnion, it’s math and also a fact.

With that said it also shows one thing about polarization.

The lower part of ladder isn’t even entitled to a opnion on this subject.
Why?

Their missplays distort the reality so much that try to deal with polarization on the lower ladder is in essence unbalance the game.

What is easier?

One person learn to play or blizzard balance the entire game around people not knowing how to play?

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3

I’m going to have to disagree with you there. To paraphrase one Nicholas Joseph Fury, yeah, you say “reality,” but I kinda think you mean the other thing. The ideal is played perfectly, and the top players come close to (but fall short of) this ideal, but Hearthstone isn’t played by mostly top players. Misplays, now that’s reality, in all its dirty and slightly disappointing lack of glory.

For most Standard players, final boss is three stars on Diamond 1. Not saying most of them get there, but I am saying that’s where their hopes are. Diamond 4-1 is probably the most important rank as far as overall playerbase satisfaction is concerned. But that’s not saying we can’t learn a lot from those who play at a higher level.

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4

Assuming no core cards rotate in that help push boar priest, like twilight call which would be a massive boost, it’s likely going to be dead come rotation. You need copy cards to get it rolling.

Raise dead and the 3 mana holy spell rotating really kill the deck.

5

When i saying low i actually not even referencing to diamond ir Platinum.

I think that while this isn’t top play this also isn’t really that bad.

I talking from where most of the population really are (bronze to Gold).
If you try to actually change the game thinking about that part of the ladder soon you gonna get that it’s pointless.

Why?
Their bias towards easy to play decks is why they are bronze to Gold in first place.
It’s why that bracket gonna always be dominated by that type of deck creating a dull gameplay experience.

If you go there and kill whatever you think you should for the sake of the experience they just gonna go to the next play while pooping deck they find.

Their deck choices and lack/refusal of getting more knowledge of the game is what make their experience miserable. Not the game design.

6

It could probably survive the loss of the 3 mana holy spell, but losing raise dead is too much. Without a suitable replacement, the Boars will need to find a home in a different class.

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7

I want to make an assumption that most players in bronze-gold are not very good with their resources and that’s a large part of why they complain, lack or refusal to get more knowledge isn’t really going to change the outcome of a polarized deck, whereas they probably need a new deck by that point but have blown out their dust budget on the last deck they made.

8

Sorry but at this point this just can’t be told.

Pirate warrior gave an actual lesson about what happens at low ranks.

People there just not know to play the game or are using bad decks on purpose.

Even decks that aren’t considered meta anymore can get out of those ranks with some actual know how.

9

But if everyone all of a sudden got better then you’d just have better people in bronze and that’s kinda what happened with the introduction of battlegrounds and mercs, some people are born with different capacities and different desire to play, time to devote to a game. Are we forgetting that their target audience for hearthstone is little children or else that’s what their pre-expansion trailers would suggest so bronze is going to be filled with players who cannot play properly.

10

If everyone suddenly got better sure.

But that would reflect in data starting to align to higher ranks. Thing that you can go to Hsreplay to check.

So while this event not happens what i said holds as truth.

11

But then I don’t really believe that ramp druid was a complicated deck, yet the legend population all started playing it and it didn’t quite have as much presence in lower ranks. It’s just that they don’t devote as much time, they don’t change their deck as often and when a deck like that comes up and they all of a sudden have to change cards out that is all a bit overwhelming. I already sometimes think the rate of new cards in hearthstone is overwhelming if I was to play it occasionally like once a month like I do with all my other games and like I probably will in the near future. Understanding a different player perspective is important too.

12

Legend is a extra complicated history and should get out of the equation.

I suggest take D1-D4 as reference or actually ask directly to a higher rank player for advice if you want to improve.

Let’s talk about legend particularities and why it’s just as bad as use bronze to Gold:

  1. Legend should be separated between low and high legend were low is anything above 5K.

  2. Low legend has players who just not give a damm about trying to get to rank 1.

Those people actually only continue playing to pass their time.
It’s Very common for they to perform far weaker than their time on diamond players just because of the circunstance where they not have anything to gain.

So you gonna see many of the average bad habits there including deck choices based on flashy effects there.

  1. High legend play is analogue to have an actual hallucination.

Not in the entrance around 5K but the more near rank 1 you get the more you start to see extreme situational deck choices and decks piloted to a so high level that it really is just a little shy from the perfect theoretical match.

This together with the very low population creates a entire different enviroment.

One example?
garrote rogue during UIS launch was a day 1 hotfix nerf worth deck there.

So ridiculous broken that you would very often play mirrors of it during that time and decks were built literally to counter It.
High legend at that time was garrote rogue vs the world.

Where eventually garrote rogue did Win making nerfs just inevitable.

Only high legend players had that experience because only high legend players are good enough to unleash the power of the deck to it’s full extent.

13

I cannot comment on that because I didn’t join the garrote bandwagon, but I have seen that with APM mage that it was apparently too high skill caliber for the average hearthstone player (I say this because I had about 80% winrate playing it but I also had about 80% winrate playing against it so it is the perfect example of a deck you can play around) so they had to nerf it (well they didn’t have to). Either way nerfs like that are not so common, it rarely ever has been the reason they nerf a deck.

I still can’t really get my head around their objective goals for nerfs as really there has been no consistency, they will nerf one deck because it’s mechanical play is strange but then they allow lots of decks like big priest, boar priest, old questline rogue, odd warrior etc etc… I could go on for a while naming decks I think are wonky and polarizing. The only real correlation we have so far is that most decks that get nerfed are high popularity and I presume they do that to get you to splash out on another deck. Nerfs really have never been about balancing, just the way it is.

14

And even at top Legend, the winrate doesn’t justify. Ramp Druid’s 49.6% winrate is top of Tier 3 there.

The way I make sense of this is what I call “lack of self awareness theory.” Generally speaking, when I look at humanity, I consider emotions to be a powerful mind-altering drug.

Everyone (especially in Legend, but generally speaking as well) starts using a decklist with the hope that it’s going to perform very well. They’re hyped for it. But hype is mostly an emotion, and it doesn’t work on a rational level without great self-discipline.

If a player is having fun playing a deck, they might not say they’re having fun (for instance, if their deck is frequently complained about). They might not even realize they’re having fun. But what will happen is that they’ll be blind to the evidence that their deck isn’t overpowered. It’ll continue to feel powerful, even if it’s not — or if the evidence of its badness is simply inescapable, they’ll continue to try it anyway and complain about other decks being better while refusing to switch to them. They might even put on the persona of a hater and complain about the deck here, even as they continue to play it. :rofl:

On the other hand, if they aren’t having fun playing a deck, they might not realize that either. But the mind works overtime to rationalize what the emotions say are the truth. They’ll find whatever excuse they can to give up on their deck and switch to another one. Again, maybe that involves posting a thread here. Why? They don’t want to admit the deck isn’t overpowered — see, they are too good at Hearthstone to even build a deck that isn’t overpowered — but they, um, just don’t want to put others through the misery of playing it. Oops, Freudian slip, I meant playing against it.

All of this is a result of Johnny disease. Johnnies, we are told, play to express themselves. They invest their identity in their deck selection. Investing your identity in, well, anything really, gives your subconscious carte blanche to direct your consciousness to rationalize anything and everything to defend that identity. You can’t hate yourself, so if you make something a part of yourself, you will never see it clearly.

Getting back to the current meta, I think the reason there’s so much complaining about Ramp Druid certainly isn’t that it’s overpowered, and I don’t really believe people are self-aware when they say they can’t stand playing against it. It’s very difficult to be not able to stand playing against a deck that loses most the time. But when a deck does cool things, people want to believe on an emotional that coolness translates into winrate performance. But it doesn’t always, and that’s just empirical reality.

That’s one of the reasons.

Another one, based off my personal corporate experience, is strategic based on how to get active player numbers high. See, there are two ways to do this. One is to retain active players. The other is to bring new players into the game, which means appealing to interested non-players.

If the focus is on retaining active players, you wouldn’t want to nerf popular decks. Because they’re popular. That’s a pretty clear indicator the playerbase likes playing them, whether they understand why they like to or not.

On the other hand, if your focus is new players, you want the game to look good to people who are looking it up. You want Tweets to say nice things and stop saying mean things. You want Twitch streamers to be happy with the latest balance changes, and those streamers in turn listen to the burnt out former players in their audience. You focus more on the talk around the game than the facts of the game, because new players will never experience the reality of the game unless they like what they hear first.

Now just mix in my “lack of self awareness” theory, zoom out from the individual level to the community level (mass hysteria), and what I’d predict is what we see: borderline random, hypocritical, arbitrary decisions.

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