Well I’m going to have a bit of a hot take and guess that about half of Hearthstone players don’t even Ranked. Almost all Battlegrounds, plus some very small but not entirely insignificant Mercenaries and Duels populations. That would make that “at least 9.8%” I was talking about earlier closer to 20%.
And if 20% of Ranked players make Legend each month, no way Platinum 5 is average. I think the average point is Diamond 4 ish. Maybe two or three ranks lower, maybe not.
The context of my post clearly implied I was talking about ranked play. And I stand by it.
If you think the average for a regular RANKED player is D5, you are wrong. Its not. It MUCH lower.
20% of regular ranked player DONT make legend each season. YOu need to provide an actual source if that is your claim.
Its simply false.
Legend is like the top 1-5% of ranked players, max.
NOT 20%. Until you can show me an official source, not your flawed logic, stating that 20% of ranked players hit legend each month, I have no reason to believe your fictional stats.
You are making VERY bold assumptions with a 20% of ranked players are legend claim. One that needs to be supported with more than your calculations based on old data from an unreliable source.
Ugh I just realized I should have ironically misinterpreted you as referring to RotJ.
Just under 10% of ALL Hearthstone players make Legend in a month, based off numbers for April 2020. When I say “ALL” I’m including Battlegrounds-only players and anyone else who logs in but doesn’t Ranked, as well as the Standard and Wild players, so it’s definitely more than 10% of Ranked players who make Legend and it could possibly be double that.
Sources:
Legend count (~330,000)
https://www.hearthstonetopdecks.com/new-ranked-system-lead-to-nearly-10x-as-many-legend-players-in-april/
Total monthly player count (~3.35 million)
https://activeplayer.io/hearthstone/
But it’s definitely at least 10% Legend so I think Platinum 5 is too low even if I’m highballing things a little bit. It’s definitely Diamond something.
Maybe dont use the busted DH launch meta as your bench mark.
No, you just dont understand how averages work.
Then again, you think 45% win rate WILL climb without star bonus.
It CAN climb, with win streaks, sure. But its improbable to climb with a 45% win rate AND no star bonus. It would require hundreds of games to achieve, even with win streaks accounted for.
Here is a table from the old days which shows just how unrealistic it is:
https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/2gkz9n/data_on_how_many_games_it_should_take_to_get_to/
2500+ games from 20-R5 (Bronze-D5 analogue) in a single season.
Now you see why I have little faith in your interpretation of numbers? You look at black & white, completely ignoring the LARGE grey areas.
Sure, you might climb with 45% win rate, but to suggest its common is disingenuous at best, and an outright lie at worst.
(yes I know your comments on this were in other threads, but it IS relevant when discussing your ability to actually read what the data you see is telling you!)
You think I wanted numbers from 2020? I’d love something more current. That’s just what I could find, and I’d hope you’d agree it’s valid for April 2020. But I don’t happen to have Legend accounts in Standard and Wild on all servers for some end of month data collection, so I’m at the mercy of what Google serves up.
I doubt very much that if we get current data that the percentage would change a lot. Maybe it’d go to 8% or something. Or maybe 12%. But the deck archetypes people are playing isn’t going to have a huge swingy effect on the percentage of players making Legend. Especially considering balance changes on the 4th and the 20th of the month we’re looking at, then no more balance changes until July. The window for exploitation was brief, and imbalance isn’t a problem that’s since been fully cured.
Its valid for April 2020, sure.
But, that was inarguably the most flawed meta to be taking stats from. DH was so busted that it, along with the ranked changes, artificially increased the legend player count. So it is not a good arguing point to support you. It is disingenuous to use it, IMO, due to those facts.
Maybe provide some actual data to support your numbers. Blizzard has only ever stated that legend is around the top 1% of ranked players, to my knowledge. You cant go making assumptions that change those numbers without providing evidence of it.
No, it wanst. It took 3 nerf waves to bring DH in line with the other classes.
Any context to that like “out of every person who ever logged into HS”
Cause again you’d have to actually calculate the actual number of active people attempting to reach legend to get an accurate number. *Which would be near impossible.
When did they say this? Because 2020 saw a drastic revamping of the Ranked system.
That, by the way, is likely what motivated the collection of Legend population data at that time. Not the Ashes meta, but the recent change to the Ranked system itself.
I think it’s mildly comical that you’re coming at me about the context of the April 2020 metagame while you’re likely basing your beliefs on a Legend rank that functionally doesn’t even exist anymore.
Legend is an awful lot easier than it used to be. That was probably one of the primary goals of the changes in the first place.
Ok… allow me to clarify a little (although I think you know what I was trying to convey). Reaching a rank is a combination of the skill a player has AND how much he plays (and surely a few other factors). You could have two players (Bill and Ted) who have the same number of bonus stars who both reach, say, D10. Bill plays only a few games per day with a very high win rate and hits D10 in 100 played games. Ted grinds and grinds and gets there in 500 games. I think it’s reasonable to conclude that Bill has more skill than Ted despite achieving the same rank.
So when I said it’s “not necessarily” a measure of skill, I should have said that because skill is not the only factor in achieving a rank, using rank alone as a determination of skill level is not perfect. Relevant and indicative to be sure, but not perfect. Fair enough?
This is the key to all of this. I’d like to know the percentage of “active” Standard Ranked players who reach each rank floor: S10, G10, P10, D10, L. And by “active” I’d say someone who played at least 10 (maybe 20) games in Standard Ranked that month. I think that would be a better indicator and is almost certainly going to show much higher percentages than the numbers I found (3% for D10 and 0.5% for Legend).
I think that’s more a factor of “broken” DH. I recall people saying that 100,000 hit Legend in the first week. I do not recall that happening the following month. If we could see that data from May or June of 2020 or better yet something from 2022, then we’d have something we could use to make some better conclusions.
But again, I think your “at least 9.8%” is based on a biased data set due to the DH launch fiasco.
But you’re using data with a bias. I don’t think you’re cherry picking that month, but I think you’re relying too heavily on a set of data for which you know there was an anomaly. I’ll submit that the March 2020 data you offered is closer to what we’d see if we had the numbers for March 2022.
Come on, Scrotie. You’d eat people alive if they offered a vague comment like this. We gotta see the real numbers. Until then, this is just conjecture, based on two data sets, March 2020 and April 2020, both of which have reasons to invalidate them.
So according to you, even the most casual players have enough skill and knowledge to reach Legend rank ?
Are you suggesting you’re playing HS just as good as I am despite me having 10 times more experience than you do and despite you never achieving Legend (something I’ve done countless of times in every format) ?
By your logic, isn’t a new player just as good as you are ?
If time is the only thing that matters, why am I able to get Legend in under 50 games meanwhile a ton of players can’t make it even after playing 100+ games ?
Surely you’d think if someone consistently gets to Legend in an absurdly low amount of games he is far more skilled than the guy who’ve made it once struggling after 200 games.
Show me where I said those words? But sure if a casual player wanted to reach legend and actually tried sure why not, might take a month or two of getting use to serious climbing but counter question…why couldn’t a casual player reach legend?
Don’t know, maybe we do have a similar play style maybe we don’t. The only clear difference is you aim to hit legend where I play a few games and go to duels or battlegrounds. Kind of an irrelevant thing to ask.
Don’t know, is this new player experienced in card games and have a good grasp on them? Is this players main goal to grind ladder?
Got any proof of this? Or just an assumption or a guess?
I dont know. I honestly think that over halve the players who really wanted to make legend has made legend at least once.
Legend is the benchmark in this game,the one thing that almost all players want to reach. So blizzard set up a system that makes it possible for the majority of players to reach this benchmark with some effort.
Thats how i see it. The millions of players who never made legend (not even sure if its millions of active players) , the majority of them they never really tried.
The legend part is kinda irrelevant to me though in this discussion. I took this question a bit different. Not looking at rating but judging ones playing strenght (which is different then making legend).
Nothing about that is a personal attack. It’s a factual statement that the vast majority of people who say that they aren’t legend because they don’t play enough are actually not legend because they don’t play well enough.
This is statistically impossible if you’ve seen the numbers they have released in the past. It’s impossible that 50% of the total have been in the top 1%.
This is literally the point of this topic - we can’t all be above average because that’s mathematically impossible.
What’s your source on this 1% stuff?
You didn’t say that, I got confused with Mogkupopo’s post that said a lot of people are around the same level in the game.
But why a lot of people couldn’t reach Legend, even if they wanted to ? For the same reasons a lot of people are bad at playing their favorite video game, despite trying to be good at it and aiming for the high ranks.
How many players reach Master or GM rank in LoL despite playing for years and trying hard to climb higher ? Let me tell you… not many.
Are you suggesting most of the players who played more than 100 games in a month are Legend rank ? Seems pretty obvious there’s a ton of guys hard stuck in diamond and lower.
What rank are you ? Low ranked people tend to overestimate their own abilities and think that if they put more time they’d magically be able to reach Legend. As in they have the required skills and their lack of success is due to lacking time.
The reality is… for a good player, reaching Legend is not a grind, it’s actually pretty easy and doable pretty quickly too. If someone blames time for not being able to reach Legend, it’s because he is not good enough.
IMO getting to Legend once doesn’t make you ‘‘Legend level’’ to be Legend level you need to be able to consistently get there every month, whenever you feel like it. For example, I did plenty of bronze 10 no stars bonus to Legend in wild in the same month without trouble at all, as another example, I don’t play much standard at all but whenever I do and feel like it, I’ll get to Legend.
I’ve hit legend 3 times, but I make bonehead plays and miss lethal more times than I’d like to admit. So maybe?
Got any proof of this or is this just more. “This sounds good because it supports my view on it.”
You don’t know why they are at the rank they are.
What does this have to do with you not having anything to support you bogus assertion of “1% of players”
Can I ask what rank you are? I’m at D10, trying to climb with a Curse Murlock.
By the time I finish quest at the end of the month like plat 5-10. But that is with playing a few games after quest here and there. I mostly stay in duels and BGs.