Data, stats and consistency - deck building questions

If this is what you want, then:

Have you considered drastically changing that behavior?

I mean, I get it, HSreplay tells me Innervate is “18th best out of 18” to keep while Eonar is “1st out of 18” and I’m like, you’re kidding right?

But, figures don’t lie and liars don’t figure. If I start with Inner and draw the 10-cost, unless it’s prior to me having 9 mana (which admittedly happens stupidly quickly, stupidly consistently) then the 10-cost is still dead. But if I start with the 10-cost and draw the Inner, it’s still dead. But if I start with neither and draw either, it’s still dead.

So what this tells me, is that it’s less about mystical odds that shift from complex math, and rather more about perception and tilt. If I keep Innervate I’m thinking, “man, I get to cheat something out” but then I draw crap that I still can’t cheat, or don’t WANT to cheat, etc. Instead if I keep the 10-cost I’m thinking “well, that’s 1 less dead card I could draw when I really need something playable.”

The odds are reflecting binary outcomes. Win, or Lose. To get the full story you have to dig deeper. “I won this game because I played this INSTEAD of that” is a far more interesting and important observation.