You are guaranteed one in 40 packs. The average is one every twenty. You opened four full groups of twenty and got four packs. Seems pretty spot on.
You could have opened two in those 90 packs and been on the pitty timers.
Your expectations are false and are causing your dissatisfaction.
Your pulls are right in the average range.
You are taking the average of 4 in 92 and discounting the frequency of 3 in 91 which is the dominant statistic in this scenario. 3 in 91 would only be a 3% legendary rate which is around 40% below average, not right in the average range.
They updated the cards that are draenei now, including high abbess Alura,
now we can tutor her for more consistent frontlines combos.
I opened 20 packs and didnât get 100 legendaries. I was cheated. I should be opening 5 legendaries per pack.
Because thatâs how the world works.
Youâre being a crybaby. Sorry you didnât get your pixels you wanted, but what you got was within the expected range.
For an average to exist, there must be answers above and below it. You hit the low side this time.
**
This is politician math. Percentage is meaningless when describing single digit whole number differences in a single sample.
You want sympathy for being an outlier, but youâre not.
Exactly. Why donât you have the whole set from that? What is Blizzard doing to me?!?!?
To be fair if no one controls the undead horde it would be chaos.
So at least the Lich Kingâs evil is a little more purposeful and he is not just trying to off the world tree
Iâm not asking you for sympathy, I am simply arguing that you are wrong to say it was average when the dominant variable of 3/91 falls 40% below average. I am literally just arguing the accuracy of your statement. You interpret my rebuttals to you as being a crybaby because you cannot argue with the the fact that 3% is in fact below the average of 5% so you resort to ad hominem instead.
This must be what Carnivore feels like, which is something I never thought I would say but here I am arguing semantics with your interpretation of my RNG.
It was average. It falls right there in taht middle range. Itâs not an outlier. Average doesnât mean you pull 4.6 packs, it means youâre in the middle two thirds of the possible outcome distribution. You are. Statistically, youâre pulls were on the low side of average.
This must happen to someone, and this time itâs you.
This â40% lowerâ thing you keep saying is meaningless misuse of stats. Itâs a single sample with a single digit difference⌠the %delta is not even relevant or interpretable.
You literally made a cry about it thread, dude. The whole thread is you wailing because you arenât whaling.
The most common pulls in your scenario are 3, 4, or 5.
You have one of those answers. Thereâs nothing to see here.
Because your interpretation is bad, all you can do is attack the messenger.
Sorry you had a bad pull day. It sucks. Happens to me too. I was exactly where you are last expansion. Left a bad taste in my mouth, but isnât some statistical outlier to be lamented.
Itâs literally average pulls.
I opened my 3 packs from the free event and got one Legendary 
That being said, buying card booster packs (in real life, where digital CCGs are derived from) has always been about luck.
Only difference is that if you buy cards IRL for 80 bucks you get at least physical cards, which you can trade or sell. So I can definitely understand the frustration.
Yeah I disagree. You keep referring to the whole variable being 4/92 and discounting the 3/91 outlier that I have mentioned multiple times now but you refuse to address. This is a 3% rate when the average is 5%. You canât just interpret this data as 1 variable when there are frequency spikes in it that deserve recognition, being 3/91.
I asked an AI to perform a binomial probability calculation for the data of opening 91 packs with a legendary card drop rate of 5% per pack and obtaining 3 legendary cards, it concluded that:
âThis means the probability of opening exactly 3 legendary cards in 91 packs is approximately 18.5%.
Given 100 people, around 18 to 19 people would open exactly 3 legendary cards in 91 packs.â
This is almost exactly 40% of the average, being on average 50 people /100 which is exactly what I have been arguing with you. So you keep saying my 40% variable is meaningless, but it isnât. It means that 18-19 people out of 100 (40% of 50 people) would have this outcome or 1/5 people, putting it well below the average outcome.
Not really applicable. Pity count on new packs is 10.
The new bundle its says 50% off at 79.99 ends today, so tomorrow it will be 160.00âŚlmao talk about greed
So is the legendary guarantee every 20 packs or every 40 packs⌠Because if you have 90 packs and the first legendary is guaranteed in the first 10⌠then the next is guaranteed every 40 thereafter then the 3 legendaries seems spot on. However if its every 20 packs then yea theres 2 legendaries missing.
The pity timer would be 3 in 120 packs if it hit last each time. So youâre 29 packs ahead of the timer.
Iâm not ignoring anything - youâre just wrong.
Thatâs the wrong calculation, but it doesnât matter because youâre not here for facts.
Youâre literally making the average wrong by how youâre selecting your data and then crying about your bad luck.
Maximum is 40, with the chance increasing as you approach that 40 packs.
Average packs to get a legendary, which includes that guaranteed in the first ten legendary, is 20 packs.
It is, but he doesntâ want to hear that. He literally could have gotten TWO legendaries in those 92 packs and it would have been within the expected parameters, but heâs made about three.
He wants the average to be a hard thing like a pity timer intead of a balance of people who get more and people who get less⌠which is how average actually works in chance like this.
I havenât read every single post in this thread carefully (and some⌠authors arenât even worthy of my attention) , but Iâll reply to some select passagesâŚ
Bro⌠I donât wanna be mean, a smartarse or anything of this sort, but lemme suggest something for you to ponder.
Imagine a rake lying in a garden with its teeth up â maybe some careless person has dropped and forgotten it there or whatever. You donât notice it in the grass, accidentally step on it, and boom â it hits you in the head with the handle. Unfortunate? Yes, but it could happen, especially if someone unwisely or maliciously left it there. However, if you step on the same rake at the same place for a second time, then for a third â perhaps you might want to draw some conclusions and amend your own ways somehow? Just something to consider.
Not bad.
Reminds me of the old tale about a scientific method to beat a casino (in short, you donât play; that tale included scientists booking some casino hotels, which were cheaper than just hotels, for some conference and⌠not playing, which resulted in them simply booking accomodation for a song, since winnings from the casino were accounted for in advance by the owners in their financial plan, a reduced price compared to an ordinary hotel being a lure for gamblers).
Typical forum moderation. Whatâs more, they tend to delete meaningful and completely normal stuff, while leaving insults and other atrocities by resident trolls and⌠other strange persons to remain out there.
What did Gulâdan do wrong? 
UPD Alright, his embarking on his final quest was questionable, in the sense that he should have probably kept working with the Horde, not abandoned them, in order to advance the master plan and not let down Kilâjaeden, who had actually been nice to him (more or less the first one who accepted him, as far as I remember?) and, interestingly enough, completely honest with him, but the rest?
Hmm, in that light, was Bolvar even evil while wearing that crown? More like a martyr doing some bitter work.
Using that old-fashioned âAIâ in the noggin for such a little task, at least as an exercise, if nothing else, isnât trendy anymore, is it?
not average. actually pretty close to the pity timer.
But worst case just a bit unlucky, nothing is actually wrong. sorry qwark your luck sucks
10 golden packs, 1 legendary, average luck
1 pack, 1 legendary, above average luck on new pity timer.(golden is seperate timer)
I assume 40 packs later, legendary right on pity timer.
then 40 packs later his 4th legendary right on pity timer again.
4 legendaries from 100 packs is the worst possible result?
personally I generally consider 1 from 20 packs average but its a running average, not strict.
last expansion I had 5 legendaries from first 50 then a run of 37 packs before next.
No, three is the worst.
If you donât count the first one from the ten, which he doesnât, two is the worst possible in 90 packs.
Getting four in the packs he opened is absolutely average, which is 4.6, which means either the four or the five.
Heâs not counting his first one in the numbers to create a fake crisis.
well 2 legendaries from 10 gold packs.
1 from first 40
3 from next 40.
Not unhappy, we canât buy with gold yet! this pre-brawl makes it a bit strange.
Before the last expansion was released it was FAR EASIER to collect the set of cards thanks to Signature cards. After they made that change in the last set collecting a set went back to pre DK inclusion to the game when Signatures went live the first time. Players have to get used to getting far fewer legendary and epic cards again.
What do you mean here, Signature cards drop rate hasnât changed since Festival of Legends