Wand vs dagger which is better

So which is better some more lucky hit or the extra damage from dagger? Guess the real answer is that extra damage from the dagger that you get instead of lucky hit additive or mutilative?

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It’s additive. All of the affixes that are damage to this or damage to that are additive. There are only a handful of multipliers in the game. Your main stat, your weapon’s damage, your attack speed, crit damage, and vulnerable damage. Pretty much everything else is additive.

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Unfortunately you are not correct and I think a lot of people have a misconception on lucky hit because the language used for the gear bonus looks identical to “critical strike chance” even though they work completely different.

Lucky hit is additive with the “Lucky Hit Chance Bonus” stat, which is multiplicative with the base lucky hit chance for that individual ability.

Final lucky hit = (Base lucky hit for skill)* (1+(Sum of all Lucky Hit Chance))

Assume you have no “lucky hit” on gear/skills. Assume you have the 20% crit chance (15% chance from gear + 5% default) and assume your skill has a default 20% lucky hit chance.

If you get 10% crit chance on gear, your new crit chance is 30% (20+10).

If you get 10% lucky hit chance on gear, your new lucky hit chance is 22% (20% * 1.1)

As such, lucky hit scaling is heavily dependent upon the skill’s default mod you are scaling. Something like ice shards has a very low default lucky hit of 16% (but it makes up for the fact that it hits multiple times). A 15% lucky hit implicit on a wand (after improving it) equates to a 2.4% lucky hit chance on ice shards.

If you don’t believe me, just hover over the skill tooltip and unequip lucky hit equipment and see how it changes.

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I was talking about the damage to close enemies on a dagger not the lucky hit on a wand… which is what the OP was asking about. I know how lucky hit works.

I had the same dilemma

But consider this. More lucky hit = more avalanche which is saved resource + 40% damage increase
The question is, is it enough. With ice shards having a low base, 15% may not seem like a lot but it is. My goal was to get shards to 30% lucky hit, and for a while i did with a barrier. It was insane
Especially if you have fists of fate, entire rooms of enemies were locked down with CC. It allowed me to go much higher in NM dungeons

Unfortunately, i had to sacrafice lucky hit for vulnerable and crit damage. Now its 22% base (higher with shield)
The drop off is noticeable
No longer feels like unlimited mana.

Dont forget frigid breeze passive, snap freeze passive, and elemental atunement rely on lucky hit as well

How Lucky Hit works…

  • Each skill has it’s own Lucky Hit chance as a baseline.

Ice Shards is 16%. Firewall is 30%. You can find this information out by using a build planner, google that.

The Sorc Skill with the highest Lucky Hit is Ice Blades. Lowest is Deep Freeze (not counting any of them that don’t have a lucky hit value; like Ice Armor).

Lets start building the equation - from the base, we’re working with X, where X is the decimal value of the skill’s lucky hit chance.

Ice Shards would be 0.16. Firewall would be 0.3. Etc.

  • Second - you multiply up your lucky hit bonuses.

Lucky hit bonuses from whatever sources, whether it’s Precision Magic, somewhere on Paragon, or from gear. Lets say you’re using 3/3 Precision Magic and have 15% Lucky Hit from gear (you have an ancestral wand upgraded and it has 15% lucky hit on it, with no other sources of lucky hit on gloves/rings/etc).

The “math” part of this chunk would become (1 + 0.15 + 0.15).

The 1 is for a global constant; and to make sure we don’t inadvertently math out the wrong answer because there’s a couple ways we could build up the equation, but this one is the “easiest”. The two 0.15’s are for Precision Magic and the 15% on your Gear.

Putting it all together then, for Ice Shards…

0.16 * (1 + 0.15 + 0.15) = 0.208.

That means Ice Shard’s tooltip will show 20.8% (likely round up to 21%) chance of Lucky Hit. NOT the base 16%. The tooltips DO update here, at least for worn Lucky Hit (edit: I did check and the tooltips DO update for “while you have a barrier”, although the only one that lasts long enough to make the tooltip worth bothering to check is Ice Armor).

;;

  • Third - The actual Lucky Hit proc itself

Every Lucky Hit proc has a different “up to X% chance for Y to happen”. For the matter of this equation we’re interested in the X%. Lets consider Meteor’s 8% chance for a free Meteor cast.

Lets assume the same 15% from Precision Magic, and the same 15% from a wand/total from your gear. And lets assume Firewall is being used, with it’s 30% Lucky Hit chance base.

Finishing the equation here, 0.3 * (1 + 0.15 + 0.15) * 0.08 = 0.0312

The “new” 0.08 is the 8% chance for Meteor Enchant to happen.

Or about a 3.12% chance for Firewall to actually drop a Meteor.

;;

Spare note - For spells with a duration component, like Firewall or Hydra, the Lucky Hit chance seems to be spread out over the entirety of the duration.

That would mean if Firewall lasts 8 seconds, then it’s a 3.12% chance from the above example for a Meteor to proc for those 8 seconds.

;;

;;

Lets run a different, more “real world” scenario with my own personal gear, skills, paragon, stats, etc. - and assume we’re calculating Ice Shards proccing Avalanche.

Ice Shards as explained has a 16% base lucky hit chance.

My total Lucky Hit bonus is 40.5%. My Lucky Hit with Barrier is 18%.

And then Avalanche has an “up to 10%” chance.

0.16 * (1 + 0.405 + 0.18) * 0.1 = 0.02536

Or 2.5% chance while I have a barrier, purely from using Ice Shards.

Teleport has a base 65% chance Lucky Hit, and it works out to about (0.65 * (1+0.405+0.18)*.1 = 10.3% chance, while I have a barrier. (edit: this one seems fishy because it maths out above the 10% limit on Avalanche, but whatever - also it’s not a frost skill, so it doesn’t/shouldn’t even proc Avalanche).

Flame Shield has 35% chance Lucky Hit, and that works out to (0.35*(1+0.405+0.18)*.1 = 5.5475% chance. (edit: also not that it’s a frost skill and can’t/shouldn’t proc Avalanche)

Deep Freeze is on my bar, but it’s base lucky hit chance is 2%, and there’s no real reason to count on it for lucky hit procs because of it (but if you wanted the math… .02 * (1+0.405+0.18)*.1 = 0.00317, or 0.317% chance for Deep Freeze to give Avalanche procs).

;;

If I took out the 15% for the wand for my gear, and kept everything else the same –

Ice Shards - 0.16 * (1 + 0.255 + 0.18) * 0.1 = 0.02296 (2.296% chance)

Teleport - 0.65 * (1+ 0.255 + 0.18) * 0.1 = 0.093275 (9.3275% chance) (edit: not that Teleport is a frost skill, but if it were)

Flame Shield - 0.35 * (1 + 0.255 + 0.18) * 0.1 = 0.050225 (5.0225% chance) (edit: not that it’s a frost skill, but if it were)

Each of these assumes I have a barrier, otherwise you can ignore (and math out yourself) the 0.18, that’s just the conditional “while you have a barrier” bonus.

;;

TLDR – Lucky Hit won’t greatly impact you, but this is heavily dependent on the Lucky Hit chance of the skill you’re using.

It’s heavily dependent on the total amount of Lucky Hit you’ve got equipped/while you have a barrier.

And it’s heavily dependent on the chance of Lucky Hit on the proc/effect itself.

For Ice Shards, you will not be able to detect the missing 15% of an ancestral wand upgraded, if you choose to use a Dagger - you’re literally comparing 2.5% chance for Avalanche procs against 2.3% chance to proc Avalanche from Ice Shards alone, when going for a modest amount of LH/LHwB.

edit: Granted for sure, there may be a noticeable difference between 1.6% and 2.5%, as if you were using Ice Shards with literally zero Lucky Hit chance at all. Just that it matters more for builds that rely on lucky hit procs, like Firewall without Meteor on it’s bar, fishing for LH Meteor Enchant procs.

The difference is negligible. Use a Wand, use a Dagger, the more important thing is that it has a higher item level, and for Ice Shards, it would focus on crit/crit damage/vulnerable damage/core skill damage.

I would actually expect a Dagger to “math out” ahead in practice - due to the Damage to Close Enemies, and how heavily recommended Raiment is for Ice Shards builds. (Teleport, pull in, nova, ice shards enchant blows stuff up at greater ‘efficiency’ relative to the 15% lucky hit chance).

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Wand > Dagger.
The implicit is all you need to look at.

Skill damage like fire, cold, lightning can be multiplied by paragon glyphs.

Redid my boards and increased my damage by 20%.

Yup, which is bad design from my perspective because it limits build diversity even further and forces you to play a single element build. Sorcerers are suppose to be “masters of the elements” not a one trick pony.

Good info.
Do you know anything about how chill increase works? (from enchant and paragon board) Does it add directly or does it multiply a base value?

i do prefer wand cause of his lucky hit, but depends on your build

Dagger IMO. Stacking lucky hit will typically only raise your chance to proc X by a measly couple of percents…if that.

I have 0 lucky hit from passives/gear. With Avalanche, 3/3 Frigid Breeze, and Fist of Fate, I’m mana neutral for everything except sometime on boss fights where I am unlucky.

Lucky hit isn’t worth stacking as far as I can tell.

Level 86. Ice Shards (Devouring Blaze). Average crit on frozen enemies is between 300-500k per shard. 650k per shard with a good Fist of Fate proc. Tier 45 Sigil is what I find the most comfortable. Can push higher but it’s slower.

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wands always, while 20%+ close range damage was very good. most of the sorc ability r heavily tide to lucky hit.

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I’m telling you, man. You don’t need +lucky hit if you have Avalanche, 3/3 Frigid Breeze, and Frostburn/FoF. It’s a complete waste of a stat slot that you could be using more effectively with +vuln damage, +crit damage, core skil damage, CDR, MCR, etc.

The way lucky hit works is jank.

I’ve tested with 50% lucky hit from gear/passives and with 0%…literally no difference in my mana sustain.

+Lucky Hit chance is noob bait.

Take all of your +lucky hit away and test it if you don’t believe me lol.