Tempers are WEIGHTED

Items and Crafting
1

So tempering felt different this season but I couldn’t put my finger on it. Not having anything better to do for a bit I grabbed a few dozen pairs of pants and started tempering them repeatedly and kept track. I chose “Sorcerer Innovation (Legendary)” which has three possible rolls – Frost Nova Size, Teleport Nova Size, Blizzard Size.

After 200 tempers the totals were 59 Teleport, 62 Blizzard, 79 Frost. That’s pretty far outside the expect norms of 66-ish. Instead of 33.3% for each it’s looking like 30/30/40. (Update. Loaded the file into Google Docs and it’s actually 58 Teleport, 58 Blizzard, 84 Frost. Still going to do another 200 tomorrow.)

Over the next few days I’m going to temper several more dozen pairs of pants to bring the totals to 1000 tempers and we’ll have a better idea if something is up. Or did Blizzard admit the tempers are weighted and this is gigantic waste of time?

More update:
Did some more calculations in the spreadsheet and it looks bad. Both Teleport Nova Size and Blizzard Size had streaks of 14 or more without hitting them one time. In only 200 tempers (the equivalent of less than 15 ancestral items with scrolls). Understand that’s not “Got a bad Teleport size so rolled again” that was trying to get ANY Teleport size and going 0 for 14.

The longest streaks of same temper was 4 Teleport, 7 Frost, 5 Blizzard
The longest droughts of each temper was 14 Teleport, 8 Frost, 18 Blizzard.

Image rolling a D6 18 times and never getting 1 or 2. That’s how streaky the RNG is for tempering in Diablo IV. Without weighting the odds of missing Blizzard 18 times in a row should be 1 in 1478. If the weighting is 30/30/40 then 18 misses in a row would be only 1 in 614. At 25/25/50 it’d be only 1 in 177.

Basically unless the next several hundred tempers significantly smooth things out it looks like tempers are weighted and quite heavily at that. But even if the overall odds even out the fact I went 0 for 18 on one type of a three type temper already shows how broken tempering actually is.

Calling it. The numbers are nearly identical after the 2nd batch of 200 rolls.

After 400 tempers the totals are 125 rolls for Teleport Nova Size, 116 for Blizzard Size, and a whopping 159 for Frost Nova Size. My guess about 30/30/40 is looking pretty solid at this point. No significant change in the rest of the numbers though I did get a slightly longer drought of Frost Nova Sizes pushing it to 9 from 8.

Perhaps the worst thing was on average you miss the type of temper you want 3-4 times, never mind the value being good. And I got multiple double digit streaks of droughts again… 11, 12, 14 failures. Bricking items is way too easy with this system and even the retemper scrolls really don’t help that much.

8 Likes
2

Thanks. Shows what many have believed to be the case.

3

100%. I literally just rolled the same temper 14 times in a row. And this isnt the first time its happened this season. Tempering was bad before, but this season really takes the cake. Tempering is straight @$$.

1 Like
4

I have personally found that when trying to reroll a low value of a specific temper into something better, that temper will never roll again and that you will always end up trashing that item. I’m not saying that this is an absolute truth but it’s been a 100% fact for me.

5

I absolutely think tempering is weighted, and it’s been a couple seasons now (I think S6, but could be S7). Rolling for +crit damage, which should also be about a 33% chance between crit, overpower, or vuln, will often result in bricked gear - literally no crit rolls, even after using a scroll of restoration or w/e.

I think it goes a little further though, because I’ve tried other builds or classes that I try to roll for different stats (like overpower) and then all of a sudden I’m getting crit and vuln and no overpower.

I’ve noticed when I’m trying to stack one affix for a key passive or ult multiplier, for example, “damage to close enemies” for close quarters combat rogue, that on the first couple pieces of gear it rolls easier, but once I start to get more of that stat, then I have a much harder time hitting it on any tempering.

What I suspect is that tempering is weighted against your current stats and prioritizes balance, so it is less likely to give you stats you’re already high on, and more likely to give you stats that you have low to no bonuses toward.

I have TWO suggestions on how to test this -

  1. Create a separate armory set that you can switch to before tempering that is fully unequipped with a reset skill tree and paragon boards to zero.
  2. Maybe even better – create a separate armory set that is specifically equipped with gear that has affixes that you don’t want (you could even keep some of your trash, bricked gear for your “screw tempering” armory set) and paragon boards invested in pts that stack the affixes you don’t want. This is more time consuming to set up but I suspect that will result in tempering having significantly better “luck” toward what you’re really going for.

The game is also known to have snapshotting quirks, so it also could be that you would need to re-enter the zone (or teleport to another city) after switching sets to ensure that the blacksmith’s spies are eyeing up your current stats correctly.

1 Like