The probability is not that high. No way.
Isn’t it the chance^rolls so in the case of 25%
.25^6
I don’t care about not getting the temper. I do care about the same temper rolling 5+ times in a row. That should practically never happen but it happens all the time.
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You can literally do the math yourself.
You have an 0.75% chance to roll the option that isn’t the one you want. Each time you do so, it multiplies on itself.
0.75% * 0.75% * 0.75% * 0.75% * 0.75% * 0.75% = 17.79%
That is the chance that you will roll one of the 3 options you DON’T want, 6 times in a row.
That’s the chance to roll the stat you want that many times in a row, not the chance not to roll it.
Then record it, instead of just claiming it. If it happens “all the time”, it will be at least statistically anomalous when recorded.
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told you them tinfoil hat people wouldnt care about the results. they made up their mind and wont change it even when faced with evidence
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Maybe I was looking at a different post, but thats what I thought he asked, the same one in a row. doesnt matter its the one you want, just seeing the same thing 6+ times in a row.
I mean, what they are claiming is certainly possible to occur, it isn’t tinfoil hat territory. However, it’s also not at all difficult to prove, instead of just claiming it.
You’re right, he did. I misunderstood his claim. Regardless, if that was happening “all time time” it would be immediately obvious in the data. Even then, doing it once (ie: rolling the same stat on 1 item 6 times) is a 1/10000 chance, so it still isn’t THAT unlikely in the context of millions of players rolling many items each.
Agreed I do think 6+ is something worthy of bias to stand out and make a forum post about. There does seem to be a lot of posts about strings of 3+ though which seems weird and stand outish that that many people encounter. I think that’s why ChefRef was asking about it early on.
Again millions of people I know.
I’m not talking about the chance to roll the option I don’t want. I’m talking about the probability of the same exact affix rolling 6-12 times in a row.
Example if you had a 4 sided die and rolled the number three 6-12 times in a row. You gave me the odds of rolling 1, 2, or 3 instead of rolling 4 if 4 was the one I wanted
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It isn’t that unlikely to happen to someone or a bunch of someone’s with that many people and that many rolls. However, it is unlikely to happen to the same individual and multiple ones at that to happen repeatedly.
For instance my barb has rolled damage to distant for every roll on a piece of gear multiple times. If I see it happen once or twice ok. More than that then something is broken.
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This is what people are seeing I feel. A majority of their rolls (that they actually pay attention to) are that of a roll they clearly don’t want. On the flip side, when they do get that one roll they want, they obviously stop rolling.
Had they continued, they’d find it would even out. However it’d be pointless if you got your desired affix on the first attempt or even the third to keep rerolling, why risk it?
On the surface it can appear to be weighted, but no one takes the time to actually find out the results like you have. Thank you for this, I was conducting my own experiment, but I don’t have nearly as much data right now, nor the time either sadly. I’ll be bookmarking this to reference later.
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I simply don’t believe that you’re actually experiencing this multiple times. However, if you want to record it, I’d be more than happy to be shown to be wrong.
It also isn’t “unfair” persay, even if it does work like this. You still have the same chance to get every affix. It is less player friendly, but there’s nothing intrinisically problematic about it that isn’t subjective, even if it would suck (again, subjectively).
I don’t record. Even if I started recording, I can’t record the past. I have no reason to lie. I’ve seen this happen multiple times. Obviously other people have too because they have posted saying so.
I didn’t say anything about fairness. I said if I see it happen multiple times, and I have, then something is broken. If it’s broken, and I believe it is, then it should be looked into and fixed. If people don’t speak up then things don’t get fixed.
I meant record via the script, or even do it manually if you feel so inclined. You don’t have reason to lie, but you do have reason to be affected by confirmation bias; you are human. That’s precisely WHY we record data rather than working from anecdotes on a forum. You get 1 stat you dont want, followed by another 5 different stat you don’t want, and your brain turns it into “holy crap I got 6 in a row of the same stat I don’t want!”
People screw up. I screw up. All the time. People see patterns where they don’t exist, and miss patterns where the do exist. It’s much less likely if they are actively recording it.
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most people dont understand scientific method
There is no confirmation bias. I know what I saw and my mind didn’t just make it up. Damage to distant is easy to recognize. But whatevs man. Don’t believe me, I don’t care.
You stating it doesn’t make it a fact. That’s literally the point. People are fallible, including you. It’s not a matter of whether I believe you or not; we’re not discussing an article of faith.
Again; you might be correct - there’s nothing in the data above that stops it from being the case. However, the simplest and most likely explanation is confirmation bias. If it were a regular bug, and you were getting it many times over, it implies either that you (and others making the claim) are more prone to such confirmation bias, or that everyone else is prone to a different sort of confirmation bias, or your specific account has a bug that most other people don’t have.
It would be incredibly unlikely that it is a bug that affects everyone, but only some people notice it happening on a semi-regular basis; that is the least likely potential reality.
Listen dude… what I seen is fact. I’m not blind and I’m not mentally ill or incompetent. It happened multiple times. I don’t care if you believe it or not.
This is my last post to you on the subject.
you have seen it happen several times…ok. but i am sure you have tempered hundreds if not thousands of pieces of gear in which it didn’t happen. you are neglecting all the times you succeeded and focusing only on failures. this is because of the confirmation bias
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None of those things have anything to do with the reality of confirmation bias; it affects every person alive. Sorry you feel attacked, that’s not the intent. It’s simply a reality that if it were a bug or mechanic affecting everyone, everyone would experience it.
There is a reason why the scientific process involves repeatability and peer-review; individuals are prone to mistakes that are much less easily repeated by many others.
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